Global Business News Roundup – August 16, 2026

India sets mandatory LPG production target for 21 refineries amid Hormuz crisis

India's petroleum and natural gas ministry set mandatory daily LPG production targets for 21 refineries and upstream companies in an August 13 order, the latest in a series of government interventions aimed at boosting domestic supplies of liquefied petroleum gas as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Production target: Doubling domestic production

According to the Economic Times, the order establishes a combined production capacity of 63,810 metric tonnes per day – more than double India's domestic LPG production in FY2026 and about 70% of the country's daily consumption. Eighteen refineries owned by public sector oil companies have been instructed to produce a combined 31,470 tonnes per day, while the remaining have been assigned to private sector refineries.

The directive builds on emergency measures first implemented in March, when the ministry ordered all refiners to maximize propane and butane production for LPG production and prohibited the diversion of those feedstocks to petrochemical manufacturing. By April, Indian refiners had increased LPG production by more than 30% year on year, according to S&P Global, while also securing record amounts of US LPG imports to compensate for disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.

Indian markets are feeling pressure

The energy crisis is reverberating through financial markets. Last week, the BSE Sensex fell 489.92 points or 0.62% to close at 78,009.25, while the NSE Nifty 50 fell 204.65 points or 0.83%, snapping a two-week winning streak.

Analysts expect volatility to persist in the coming weeks. “Developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the trajectory of Brent crude will remain important market drivers in the near term,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, Religare Broking. The release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting on August 19 will provide another important signal as to what impact any hawkish tone could potentially have on emerging market flows.

Widespread supply concerns

India imports about 60% of its LPG consumption, the bulk of which has historically been sourced from the Middle East. The ongoing US-Iran standoff and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has forced a rapid diversification strategy. Reuters reported last year that Indian refiners planned to import about 10% of cooking gas from the United States starting in 2026, a figure that has since increased. Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said strong Q1FY27 corporate earnings provide a domestic cushion, but “rising crude and global uncertainty have limited investor confidence”.

Singapore is promoting AI, while Hong Kong is attracting money with zero tax

The competition between Asia's two leading financial centers has entered a new phase, with Singapore relying on its access to advanced artificial intelligence tools to retain investment managers, while Hong Kong is implementing sweeping tax incentives for fund professionals.

Hong Kong's zero-tax play

Hong Kong's Inland Revenue (Amendment) Bill 2026, gazetted in June, proposes to zero out profits tax and salary tax on qualified interest and performance fees for qualified funds, family offices and their employees. The law expands the scope of the preferential regime beyond private equity to cover hedge funds, credit funds and venture capital.

On 12 August, the Bureau of Financial Services and Treasury clarified the limitations of the new arrangement, saying that "remuneration distributed by proprietary trading businesses is not eligible for the tax concessions proposed under the Inland Revenue (Amendment) Bill 2026". That exclusion means companies like Jane Street, Citadel Securities and Jump Trading won't benefit from the stimulus.

The Bureau explained that under the Inland Revenue Ordinance, a fund must meet the requirement that participating persons do not have day-to-day control over asset management – ​​a condition proprietary trading operations cannot meet.

Singapore's AI advantage

In July, the Alternative Investment Management Association raised concerns that the tax changes were prompting top hedge fund and private equity executives to consider relocating from Singapore to Hong Kong. Bloomberg reported the same month that Singapore was considering its own tax cuts and easier talent entry rules for hedge funds in response.

But Singapore's financial industry is also banking on a structural edge: unrestricted access to Western AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic, which is unavailable in Hong Kong due to US tech firms' own restrictions on the sector. For quantitative funds that rely on sophisticated algorithms, this access is becoming a decisive factor. Justin Tan of LEK Consulting told the Financial Times that the technology gap is already prompting Hong Kong-based quant funds to consider moving research and trading operations to Singapore.

This was emphasized in May when Citadel told members of its Hong Kong-based global quantitative strategy team to relocate to Singapore or Miami or leave the company, according to Reuters. Although Citadel said the moves were part of a "global co-location strategy", people familiar with the matter cited concerns about data security and access to AI tools as factors.

a dual track competition

Comet Capital CEO Kerry Goh told the Financial Times that setting up operations in Singapore gives global clients confidence that their intellectual property will remain independent from both Chinese and US sanctions. Benjamin Hung, chairman of Hong Kong's Financial Services Development Council, said the city's structural advantages – the rule of law, deep capital markets and free movement of capital – would remain intact, calling the tax "a strategic play to bring in people".

The rivalry now runs on parallel tracks: Hong Kong is offering financial incentives to attract fund managers earning seven- and eight-figure performance bonuses, and Singapore is positioning itself as a technology-neutral hub where companies can deploy the latest AI from both sides of the US-China divide.

Heatwave in Europe costs businesses billions of dollars as insurance gap widens

Europe's intense heat last summer sapped an estimated €43 billion ($50 billion) from economic output last summer while contributing only €500 million to insurance payouts, according to estimates published by Moody's, highlighting a huge and growing protection gap that leaves businesses to absorb the lion's share of climate-driven losses on their own.

As the continent endures its fifth heatwave by 2026, the disparity between economic damage and insured coverage has become a pressing concern for companies across all sectors – from Italian cafes grappling with rising cooling costs to manufacturers seeing their rooftops go bare.

Empty rooftops, disappearing shores

In Padua, Italy, the traditional evening aperitivo has almost disappeared during the extreme heat. Federica Luni, president of the APPE Padova hospitality association, said customers are increasingly looking for air-conditioned spaces, leaving outdoor seats "unused and empty".

A survey of nearly 600 hospitality businesses in Padua and its province found that more than 80 percent reported a decline of about 20 percent in business during the recent summer. "A 20 percent drop destroys your margins," Looney told Reuters.

Its influence extends far beyond hospitality. Swedish retail equipment supplier ITAB Group, Italian cement maker Buzzi and French payments company Worldline have marked heat-related impacts on their second-quarter results.

Why does insurance cost less?

Traditional business interruption policies typically require damage to physical property to trigger a claim – a condition that most heathens rarely meet. “Heat in itself is not a traditionally insured risk,” said Svenja Surminski, managing director of climate and sustainability at Marsh. “Extreme heat rarely causes catastrophic physical damage like floods or hurricanes, but the financial operational disruption it causes can be just as severe.”

A 2023 survey of 9,000 small and medium-sized firms for Europe's insurance regulator found that only 28 percent kept business interruption cover as part of their property insurance. Europe is warming faster than other continents; The Reuters Climate Monitor showed that the average temperature across Western Europe on August 11 was about 10 degrees Celsius above the 1961–1990 average.

Parametric products offer a way forward

Insurers are increasingly exploring parametric policies that automatically pay out when temperatures exceed predefined limits, bypassing lengthy loss-adjustment processes. According to KBV Research, the European parametric insurance market is expected to reach $7.93 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual rate of 9.5 percent between 2025 and 2032.

“Parametric insurance can really play a role,” said Aidan Kerr, head of UK and Ireland public sector solutions at Swiss Re.

Still, insurance alone can't cushion the financial blow. Surminsky urged businesses to prioritize adaptation — investing in cooling, redesigning workplaces and stress-testing supply chains. “Take action to avoid damage,” she said, “rather than dwelling on the damage after it has happened.”

RBI bans abusive loan recovery tactics in new rules effective from January 2027

The Reserve Bank of India has finalized a comprehensive framework governing loan recovery practices, which will come into effect on January 1, 2027, which clearly prohibits abusive tactics by lenders and their recovery agents, while introducing new protections for borrowers who finance smartphones, tablets and laptops through credit.

Strict limits on recovery practices

The new instructions, published this month, restrict recovery calls and in-person visits during daytime hours between 8:00 am and 7:00 pm unless the borrower has explicitly authorized contact outside those hours. Recovery agents are barred from discussing the borrower's outstanding balance with third parties, including family, friends or coworkers, and may not contact the borrower during sensitive personal events such as weddings, bereavements or medical emergencies.

All collection calls must be recorded, borrowers must be informed that conversations are being documented, and lenders must keep the recordings for at least six months. Agents visiting borrowers must carry an identity card, an authorization letter and a copy of the lender's notice. Any form of threatening language, anonymous calls, public shaming or posting personal information on social media is strictly prohibited.

Device-locking security measures

For loans used specifically to finance an equipment, lenders must follow a systematic timeline before imposing any restrictions. No action can be taken until the debt is due at least 30 days before it is due, and full contractual sanctions – such as blocking outgoing calls – can only begin after 60 days of default. Incoming calls, SMS and emergency SOS functions must remain accessible at all times, and restrictions cannot interfere with applications essential to the borrower's employment.

Once a borrower repays the overdue payment, the lender must unlock the device within an hour of receiving the funds. Failure to do so leads to a compensation of ₹250 per hour of delay, capped at the loan amount disbursed. Lenders and third-party software providers are also barred from accessing personal data stored on the device, including contacts, photographs, location history and call logs.

lender liability

This framework is applicable to all RBI-regulated entities including commercial banks, small finance banks, regional rural banks, co-operative banks, non-banking financial companies and housing finance companies. Lenders are held directly liable for the conduct of their recovery agents and can no longer pass the buck to third party agencies.

Recovery agents will have to obtain professional certification from the Indian Institute of Banking and Finance by January 1, 2028. Every lender should maintain a board-approved policy for compensating borrowers who suffer losses due to non-compliant recovery actions, and the name and contact details of the lender's Grievance Redressal Officer should be prominently displayed in all recovery communications.

Ferrari's first electric car sold at auction for $40 million

The first production unit of Ferrari's all-electric Luce sold for $40 million at RM Sotheby's during Monterey Car Week on Saturday night, slashing its pre-sale estimate of $1.1 million by nearly 40 times and setting a record as the most expensive new car ever sold at auction.

The result surpasses the $26 million fetched by a customized Ferrari Daytona SP3 at the same event last year, which had set the previous record for a new car charity auction by the Italian automaker. The entire $40 million will be donated to the Ferrari Foundation to support educational initiatives, including a collaboration with Save the Children to help rebuild the Aveson Charter School in Altadena, California, destroyed by the 2025 Eaton wildfire.

bidding frenzy

The starting price of the Loos, offered without reserve, was $1 million and rose to more than $5 million within seconds. Momentum slowed around $10 million for a while before climbing to $15 million and $20 million, then jumping to $36 million. The winning bidder reached $40 million, shocking the remaining competitors. The identity of the buyer has not been disclosed.

The car itself is no standard Luce. Designated chassis 0, it bears a tailor made specification finished in madreperla semi-gloss, a mother-of-pearl white with iridescent reflections that change from green to purple depending on the light. Inside, the Perla features Le Mans metallic leather paired with Grigio Corvara accents, and a plaque confirming its status as the first series-production electric Ferrari ever built.

The market silenced the critics

Since its unveiling earlier this year, Luce has divided enthusiasts. Giorgetto Giugiaro said that even a novice could have done better, while Pininfarina's former design director Fabio Filippini called it a "soulless object". Yet the five-seat EV – powered by four electric motors that produce a combined 1,050 horsepower and is capable of reaching 60 mph in 2.5 seconds – moved every customer allotment almost instantly.

Former Ferrari of Beverly Hills manager Bryant Craden suggested that the buyer probably needed a large tax abatement and was "a collector's level", adding that the purchase probably secured access to a highly exclusive future Ferrari allocation.

A new dimension for Monterey

Luce wasn't the only headliner. Earlier this week a Ferrari Daytona SP3 sold for $17.8 million, and a 1996 McLaren F1 GTR sold for $34.6 million – expected to be the top sale itself before Luce surpassed it. According to Haggerty, nine of the ten most expensive cars sold at auction so far this year have been Ferraris.

"Ladies and gentlemen, how do we top that?" the auctioneer asked after dropping the gavel.

Fed's July minutes to come on Wednesday amid rate hike debate

Global investors are preparing for the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting on Thursday, August 20, seeking clarity on the central bank's internal debate on interest rates at a time when geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices are already roiling the market.

At its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Cleveland Fed President Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan dissented, advocating an immediate 25-basis-point rate increase. The divided decision has left markets considering every indication of what will happen next.

What are the markets looking for?

According to LSEG data, money markets currently see only a 27% chance of a rate hike in September, with a full increase not occurring until early 2027. Investors will be scrutinizing the minutes for two key questions: whether more committee members than the three dissenters believe a rate hike is needed in July, and what evidence will be needed before the majority moves toward tightening.

However, US economic data released since the July meeting has weakened the case for near-term action. Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July, CPI growth slowed to 3.4% year-on-year from 3.5%, PPI was flat month-on-month and retail sales declined 0.6%. Kim Yu-mi, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said that "recent US inflation data has eased some market concerns, but uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East and oil prices remains, the Fed is also likely to maintain a cautious stance on inflation risks".

Geopolitics and crude oil increase instability

These minutes come against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts say developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader US-Iran standoff will be equally important for markets this week.

“Developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the trajectory of Brent crude will remain important market drivers in the near term,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president, research, Religare Broking. He warned that any aggressive signals from the minutes "could impact emerging market flows and increase volatility in Indian equities."

Indian markets entered the week on a weak note. Last week, the BSE Sensex fell 489.92 points or 0.62%, while the NSE Nifty fell 204.65 points or 0.83%, snapping a two-week winning streak.

beyond the feds

Other programs will compete for attention. South Korea's Korea Development Institute will issue a revised growth forecast on Tuesday, which is widely expected to rise amid strong semiconductor exports driven by an AI boom. The Bank of Korea will also publish preliminary second-quarter household debt data, fueling speculation that household debt may have surpassed 2,000 trillion won for the first time.

Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said investors will also keep an eye on Chinese economic data for cues on global growth along with the Fed outlook.

Analysts warn strategy could sell $4.5B more in Bitcoin

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and long the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million during the week of August 3 to August 9, according to an SEC Form 8-K filing released on August 10. The sale is another step away from the firm's once-defined "never sell" stance and raises questions about the structural demand underlying Bitcoin's price.

from accumulation to liquidation

The company sold Bitcoin at an average price of $64,262 per coin and used the entire $108.6 million to repurchase 1,152,020 shares of its variable-rate STRC preferred stock. The strategy simultaneously raised $653.1 million through market sales of its common stock, contributing $650 million to its US dollar reserves, which now stand at $4.65 billion.

The strategy retained the 840,447 BTC it earned at a total cost of $63.36 billion. But the company's sales have increased in recent months. In late June, the strategy announced it could sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to build cash reserves. In early July, it sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million – its largest single-week liquidation to date – leading to an $8.32 billion loss on the digital asset in the second quarter.

Potential $7.5 billion in widespread selling pressure

Research firm BIT Research warned on August 15 that the strategy may need to sell about $4.5 billion in Bitcoin over the next two to four months to reduce its STRC balance from about $10 billion to $5 billion. Beyond the strategy, the firm identified 28 Bitcoin treasury companies whose market capitalization is now below the value of their Bitcoin holdings, which collectively hold nearly $3 billion in BTC. The combined potential sales pressure of these companies could reach $7.5 billion.

Saylor's contradictory message

On August 15, founder Michael Saylor published an essay describing Bitcoin as a “deep freeze” of money – an asset that maintains purchasing power for decades without relying on a central issuer. The analogy explains Bitcoin's fixed supply schedule as superior to cash, which gets destroyed through inflation, and gold, which is expensive to move and verify.

The comparison is striking: the company sells Bitcoin to meet near-term financial obligations while its president argues for Bitcoin's unmatched long-term value. Bitcoin traded near $63,000 on August 16, above the $60,000 level but well below its all-time high, as ETF outflows and regulatory delays from the SEC weighed on institutional appetite.

India directs shift from WPI to PPI for government contracts

India's Finance Ministry has directed all government ministries and departments to adopt the Producer Price Index (PPI) in place of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for the price escalation clause in future procurement contracts, marking a structural change in the way inflation is measured in public expenditure in the country.

As reported by IANS and Fortune India, the Department of Expenditure issued an office memorandum on July 13 directing ministries to make the changes once the PPI data becomes available for their respective sectors. The move aligns India with international standards recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and practices adopted by advanced economies.

Why PPI more than WPI?

PPI is considered a more accurate measure of price changes at the producer level because it does not include wholesale margins and indirect taxes that can distort WPI. Price escalation clauses in government contracts allow payments to be adjusted based on changes in input costs such as materials, labor and fuel during project execution. The changes to PPI are expected to create a fairer mechanism for these adjustments, potentially reducing disputes over increased claims.

India's Commerce Ministry began releasing monthly PPI data for both goods and services in June 2026, which includes an output PPI, a trial input PPI and a services PPI. The Output Goods PPI gives the highest weightage to manufactured goods at 69.93 per cent, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing at 22.16 per cent.

transition timeline

To avoid disruption, the government has set up a parallel period of five years, during which both the revised WPI and the new PPI series will be maintained using the 2022-23 base year. WPI will be closed after this period.

The service PPI currently covers seven sectors – banking, securities transactions, insurance, management of pension funds, railways, air passenger transport and telecommunications – with additional services planned for later phases. The revised WPI series released on June 15 increased its item count from 697 to 957 and included new energy sources including solar and wind power.

wider implications

This change represents one of the most consequential changes to India's price measurement infrastructure in years. For businesses holding long-term government supply or construction contracts, the change will require adjustments to how the agreements are indexed for inflation. The effectiveness of the reform will depend on how quickly individual departments adopt the new index over a five-year period.

Goldman Sachs estimates global AI investment at $1 trillion in 2026

Global investment in artificial intelligence is on track to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2026, according to a Goldman Sachs Research report published this weekend. The United States is expected to contribute $581 billion of that total, as companies and hyperscalers continue to pour capital into AI infrastructure despite limited evidence that spending is still translating into broader corporate income gains.

A trillion-dollar buildout

Goldman Sachs' estimate is broader than the commonly cited estimate of approximately $794 billion in capital spending by U.S. hyperscalers alone, as it also includes spending by private companies, non-hyperscalers firms, and international investors. Cumulative global AI investment by 2022 could reach $1.8 trillion by the end of this year.

The bank estimates that AI-related investments will grow from 0.9 percent of global GDP in 2026 to 1.3 percent in 2027 and 1.4 percent by 2028. In the US in particular, this figure is projected to increase from 1.8 percent of GDP this year to 2.8 percent by 2028. Goldman Sachs said these levels remain within the historical range of previous general purpose technology buildouts, which typically peak between 2 and 5. Percentage of GDP.

Near-term indicators support the outlook. Semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in Taiwan and South Korea, purchasing managers' indices, memory prices and GPU rental rates are all near the upper end of their ranges through 2022.

Expenses increased, impact on earnings still less

A separate Goldman Sachs analysis of S&P 500 companies' second-quarter 2026 earnings revealed a huge gap between the beneficiaries of AI infrastructure and the rest of the market. Hyperscalers and AI infrastructure firms saw earnings rise 54 percent year-on-year, accounting for almost half of the index's overall 31 percent earnings growth.

Yet only 11 percent of S&P 500 companies quantified AI productivity benefits for a specific use case, and only 2 percent quantified the impact on earnings. Monthly AI spending per employee at the average company rose to $12 in July, from $5 at the beginning of the year, while estimated spending remains below 0.5 percent of revenue.

from experiment to deployment

Goldman Sachs said that as companies move from experimentation to widespread deployment, the productivity benefits should be obvious. Currently, about two-thirds of companies are funding AI spending by reallocating existing budgets rather than incremental outlays. The bank cautioned that there is some risk of double counting in its global estimates, but cross-checking using corporate earnings revisions, government data and trade flows yielded broadly similar figures.

Goldman Sachs warns of potential 'earnings bubble' in tech

Goldman Sachs has flagged the risk of a potential "earnings bubble" in technology stocks, warning that although valuations do not appear inflated, the sustainability of the sector's profit growth is in doubt as companies pour billions of dollars into artificial intelligence infrastructure.

earnings bubble thesis

"In technology, there appears to be no valuation bubble, but there may be an earnings bubble. Investors have reflected these concerns and value is emerging," Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research said in its Global Strategy Views report published on August 16, 2026.

The report said that while tech valuations have declined on a price-to-earnings basis, future implied growth remains well below the levels seen at the peak of the dot-com era. However, the 10-year compound annual growth rate of the sector's earnings has grown faster than the peak seen around 2000, raising questions about whether such momentum can continue.

AI capex boom hits cash flows

The concern focuses on dramatic changes in spending patterns among major technology companies. For nearly a decade after the global financial crisis, technology companies benefited from surging demand for software and cloud computing, while remaining relatively undercapitalized. The emergence of ChatGPT changed that dynamic, leading to what Goldman described as an "explosion in capex" among hyperscalers.

Increased spending has reduced premium cash flows and pushed companies towards debt and equity markets for funding. The US equity market, dominated by hyperscalers, has seen a sharp decline in free-cash-flow yields compared to more value-oriented markets such as Europe. The five largest stocks in the S&P 500 now trade at P/E ratios just slightly above the other 495 stocks in the index, after consistently trading at a premium since 2017.

No repeat of the dot-com era

Goldman Sachs drew a clear distinction between current conditions and the dot-com bubble. During that era, valuations reached much higher levels before falling along with stock prices. This time, prices have adjusted more modestly while earnings remain "exceptionally strong."

Within the sector, software stocks have seen a sharp valuation reset, with their global P/E premium falling to around 20 per cent compared with around 200 per cent at the start of this century. Leadership has shifted toward hardware, with memory and chip companies benefiting from demand for computing capacity — though their cyclical nature has led investors to short those stocks as well.

The key question for markets now is whether large-scale AI capital spending will ultimately generate sufficient returns to justify the investment, or whether technological income growth will prove unsustainable under the burden of rising costs.

UPI growth slows to 18.7% as cash usage increases amid MDR debate

The Indian government has assured consumers that Unified Payment Interface payments will remain free for common users, even as it explores the possibility of reintroducing merchant discount rates on select high-value commercial transactions to maintain the digital payments ecosystem.

Government explores two-track approach

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has clarified that "the merchant discount rate applies only to merchants and not to end users/customers," saying in Parliament that there will be no charge on regular peer-to-peer and small-merchant payments. PhonePe co-founder Sameer Nigam reiterated the assurance on X, writing, "UPI is free for all Indian consumers and will remain free!"

The government is considering two options to address the financial stability of the UPI ecosystem. The first involves reintroducing MDR for certain large transactions or traders, while the second proposes a tiered incentive structure to gradually reduce government support over time. The proposal under consideration would impose an MDR of 0.3-0.5% on transactions above Rs 2,000 on merchants with annual turnover above Rs 1.5 crore. Such transactions account for about 4% of UPI volume but about 67% of the transaction value. No final decision has been announced.

UPI growth slows due to cash withdrawal

Data analyzed by The Hindu using Reserve Bank of India data shows that cash held by the public has been growing rapidly in recent quarters, reaching nearly 13% year-on-year through July 2026, while UPI transaction growth in the April-August 2026 period slowed to 18.7% compared with the same months a year ago. UPI growth peaked at 133% in 2019-20 and has declined every year since then, before slowing further in the current financial year to 20.3% in 2025-26.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra had earlier this month said it was "premature" to discuss MDR on digital payments, while acknowledging that investment in payments infrastructure is necessary and "somebody has to pay for it".

Evaluates industry revenue potential

Jefferies estimates that the proposed MDR could create an annual revenue pool of Rs 5,000-10,000 crore for the payments industry. Paytm, the only listed major UPI player, could generate Rs 300-730 crore in additional annual revenue depending on the final structure, according to the brokerage. Bernstein estimates a huge EBITDA profit of around Rs 1,320 crore for Paytm in FY2028, rising to Rs 2,160 crore by FY2030.

IRCTC presents a live case study of the stress imposed by Zero-MDR. Its chairman confirmed that UPI's share in ticket bookings has crossed 51%, yet convenience fee revenues have stagnated as UPI fees of Rs 10-20 per ticket are lower than card fees of Rs 15-30. "UPI is something that has grown...that's why it's eating into your profits," he told analysts.

The Standing Committee on Finance has noted that the Centre's allocation of Rs 2,000 crore to offset zero-MDR transactions covers only a fraction of the industry's estimated Rs 20,700 crore operating cost.

ONGC secures US license to resume full operations in Venezuela

India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has received a license from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to fully restart operations in Venezuela, removing a major sanctions-related hurdle that had hampered the company's activity in the South American nation for years.

complete freedom of operation

ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL), the overseas investment arm of ONGC, has a 40 per cent stake in the San Cristobal oil project and an 11 per cent stake in the Carabobo project, which is under development. The remaining stake in San Cristóbal is held by Venezuela's state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA).

"We now have complete freedom to work on the Venezuela project because earlier we were restricting our operations there due to clearance-related risks. Those risks are behind us," ONGC Finance Director Anupam Agarwal said during an investor call after the company announced its first quarter earnings.

The OFAC license enables ONGC to manage the finances of its Venezuela projects and recover more than $500 million in pending dividends that were stuck due to sanctions.

Production ambitions and operational negotiations

San Cristóbal produced about 0.265 million tonnes of oil equivalent in fiscal year 2025-26 – about one-tenth of its production capacity. ONGC is now in talks with Venezuelan authorities and joint venture partners on both projects and expects new agreements soon, including the possible transfer of operatorship from PDVSA to OVL.

“We are very optimistic for Venezuela,” Agarwal said, adding that the company expects to assume operational capacity of some projects in the near term.

strategic importance

Venezuela has the world's largest proven crude oil reserves, estimated at about 303 billion barrels according to OPEC – more than Saudi Arabia. Years of underinvestment, restrictions, and operational difficulties have left much of the country's production capacity unused. Venezuela's recently enacted petroleum law provides additional financial incentives for resource development, potentially improving conditions for foreign oil companies.

The renewed pressure comes as India seeks to diversify its overseas oil supplies amid rising geopolitical risks, and ONGC sees its experience managing shallow, onshore fields in western India as directly applicable to its Venezuelan assets.

Brent crude has 10.7% risk premium amid Hormuz standoff

Brent crude closed at $88.52 a barrel on Friday, 10.7% above Goldman Sachs' estimated spot fair price of about $80, as competing US and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil flows. WTI crude rose near $80, while energy stocks posted strong weekly gains, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund climbing 7.7% for the week.

collapse of the strait of hormuz

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 14.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, down 28.4% from 20.4 million bpd in the same period a year earlier, according to EIA data. The head of Iran's Basij declared that the strait is "under the control and management of Iran", while President Trump claimed that the United States had "complete control". According to Reuters, neither claim has resolved the throughput crisis, with Iran's Joint Command requiring Tehran's approval for ships to transit.

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies, warned that supply chain disruptions could last for years even after a peace deal. "Even if there is an agreement between the Omanis and the Americans... it will take time because the bureaucracy of the Iranians will be such that every ship going through the strait will need to be catalogued," he told Philippine media last week.

The supply shortage is deepening

The International Energy Agency estimates a shortage of 1.8 million barrels of oil per day in the third quarter, with Middle East production 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels. U.S. refineries are operating at or near maximum capacity, leaving little domestic capacity to absorb additional demand, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Chevron rose 7.2% and Exxon Mobil gained 4.6% this week, reflecting broader progress in the sector.

Strategic reserves at four decade low

The US strategic petroleum reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since the early 1980s, according to Energy Department data released this week, as the government reduced reserves by 172 million barrels in response to the Iran war. Experts have warned that rapid extraction risks damaging the Gulf Coast's salt caverns that store oil.

"Below 300 million, which is where we are right now, it's not that we can't do it, but it slows the flow and puts us at risk," former senior energy adviser Amos Hochstein told CNBC. "The integrity and overall operational capacity of the cave is at elevated risk at the current inventory levels," said Siddharth Mishra, a professor of petroleum engineering at Texas A&M University.

When oil futures resume next week, $90 a barrel will be the key level to watch, with market participants monitoring ship movements through the strait and waiting for further US economic actions.

Yen halts decline on BOJ hike signals, weak US data

The Japanese yen snapped a five-session losing streak on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week low against the dollar after the market rallied on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September and US retail sales recorded their sharpest decline in more than a year.

BOJ rate hike expectations rise

The yen's recovery came after Reuters reported the BOJ is eyeing a rate hike soon after its Sept. 17-18 meeting and is considering tightening more aggressively than its recent pace of about twice a year, citing three sources familiar with its thinking. Markets are now pricing in an almost 80% probability of a rate hike in September, up from just 24% on July 30, according to Tokyo Tanashi data.

The change follows the BOJ's July 30-31 meeting, at which the central bank kept its policy rate at 1% but opened the door to a move in September. A summary of opinions from that meeting, published earlier this month, shows a board member arguing that given the risk of a price surge, "the pace of raising policy interest rates would be faster than market expectations". Short-term Japanese government bond yields hit their highest level in decades as traders reassessed bullish tightening. The two-year JGB yield stood at 1.50%, while the 10-year yield reached 2.88%.

Weak US data puts pressure on the dollar

Adding to the yen's headwinds, U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the biggest monthly decline since May 2025 and the first decline in nine months, according to the Commerce Department. Economists had expected 0.1% growth. Sales at auto dealers declined 1.8%, while online retail sales fell 2.2%. The control group used to calculate GDP fell 0.4%, raising new questions about the health of the American consumer.

The soft data pressured the dollar and dampened expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, narrowing the interest rate gap that has kept the yen under pressure until 2026.

interference background

The yen's move also came against the backdrop of the recent coordinated US-Japan currency intervention, which pushed USD/JPY down from above 163 to around 157 earlier this month. Tokyo's former top currency diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa warned on August 14 that Japan could launch joint intervention "at any time" and signal a faster-than-expected rate hike to stem the currency's slide.

With the BOJ's September meeting and the preceding FOMC decision on September 15-16 now the next major catalysts, traders face a significant pullback for USD/JPY. DBS analysts said they gave "about a 50% chance" of a rise in September, with wages and inflation data from July and August likely to prove decisive.

PayPal is in talks to sell itself to Stripe and Advent

According to The Wall Street Journal report on August 14, PayPal is in active discussions to sell itself to a consortium of Stripe and private-equity firm Advent International, which would be its largest fintech acquisition to date.

The two sides are negotiating a potentially higher price after PayPal's board rejected an initial offer of $60.50 a share made in July, which would have valued the company at more than $53 billion. A deal could be reached in the coming weeks, the Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

A bid rejected but not finished

Stripe and Advent first presented their joint proposal in July, backed by approximately $50 billion in committed bank financing. The bid represented a 28% premium to PayPal's closing price at the time. Under the proposal, Stripe and Advent would keep equal stakes and keep PayPal intact rather than breaking up the company.

PayPal deemed the price inadequate but continued negotiations with buyers. The company is working with Goldman Sachs and Evercore to evaluate strategic options, including a potential sale.

According to TechCrunch, PayPal declined to comment on the latest reports, while a Stripe spokesperson said the company "does not comment on rumors or speculation".

a change in balance

The talks come as PayPal is undergoing a restructuring led by CEO Enrique Lores, who joined in March after years at HP. In April, Lores split PayPal's operations into three units, including checkout solutions, consumer financial services including Venmo, and payment services along with its cryptocurrency division. The company is also considering cutting up to 20% of the workforce over the next two to three years.

For Stripe, the acquisition of PayPal will add millions of consumer accounts and the Venmo peer-to-peer platform to its merchant-focused infrastructure. Axios noted that this would be a rare case of a venture-backed company buying an S&P 500 member.

no certainty of deal

Despite the advanced stage of discussions, no consensus has been reached. PayPal's leadership should consider whether the sale provides more value to shareholders than completing its independent turnaround — a calculation that depends on the final price Stripe and Advent are willing to pay.