Global Crossroads: Conflict, Crisis, and Accountability (November 20, 2025)
November 20, 2025, was defined by intensifying geopolitical conflicts, sharp diplomatic maneuvering regarding post-war governance, and unsettling domestic political developments across the globe. From deadly strikes in the Middle East and Ukraine to judicial reckoning in South Asia and internal political purges in the United States, volatility remains the defining characteristic of the global landscape.
This analysis synthesizes the major news headlines, drawing upon reports from global wire services and diplomatic announcements.
Part I: Escalating Conflicts and Humanitarian Crises
The ongoing wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe saw significant escalation, leading to substantial civilian casualties and drawing renewed calls for international intervention.
1. Middle East Tensions Spike
The region remains a primary flashpoint, with Israeli military actions extending beyond the immediate Gaza Strip.
- Strikes and Casualties: Israeli forces conducted an airstrike on a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, killing at least 13 people. This incident, which targeted alleged militant positions, underscores the cross-border spillover of Gaza-related violence. Separately, Israeli strikes in Gaza killed at least 30 Palestinians. One report specified that 32 Palestinians were killed, marking a violation of the October ceasefire. Israel claimed its soldiers came under fire, a justification which Hamas disputed. The strikes included the killing of an entire family in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood.
- Internal Violence and Custody Deaths: In the occupied West Bank, Israeli settlers set fire to a mosque, an act of vandalism amid a surge in settler violence. Furthermore, investigations revealed a sharp rise in Palestinian deaths while in Israeli custody, reporting over 50 cases in the past month alone, prompting allegations of systemic abuse and calls for international probes.
- Iranian Posturing: Amid these tensions, Iran publicly showcased its advanced ballistic missiles and drones for the first time since its conflict with Israel, framing the display as a deterrent against "aggression".
2. Russia Intensifies Attacks on Ukraine
Russian aggression continues unabated, particularly targeting civilian infrastructure far from the front lines.
- Ternopil Attack: Russian missile and drone strikes targeted the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil, killing at least 26 civilians, including children, and causing significant damage to residential areas. Ukrainian emergency services reported the collapse of a multi-story apartment block.
- Peace Talk Rumors: On the diplomatic front, whispers circulated in European circles regarding a proposed "Dimitriev-Witcoff Pact," a rumored U.S.-Russia agreement on Ukrainian ceasefires. This proposal drew sharp rebukes from Kyiv allies, who criticized it as a potential "Munich moment" or political sellout.
Part II: Diplomacy, Governance, and Political Reckoning
Major diplomatic shifts and judicial decisions marked the day, influencing post-conflict strategies and domestic stability in key regions.
1. The Gaza Governance Framework
The international community took a step toward establishing a framework for Gaza's post-war future.
- UN Approval: The United Nations General Assembly voted to approve a framework proposed by the incoming Trump administration for Gaza's postwar future. The plan, outlined in a 45-page document, envisions a demilitarized zone under multinational oversight, with reconstruction funded by Gulf states.
- Rejection: Despite the UN endorsement, Hamas rejected the U.N.-presented U.S. plan for postwar governance involving international forces.
2. South Asian Political Upheaval
Bangladesh’s political landscape was dramatically altered by a landmark judicial decision.
- Death Sentence for Hasina: Ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to death in absentia by a special tribunal in Dhaka for her role in suppressing a student uprising in 2024. The ruling stems from charges of mass killings and enforced disappearances that allegedly claimed over 1,000 lives. Hasina, currently in exile in India, denounced the trial as "politically motivated".
3. India’s Global Diplomacy
India showcased significant diplomatic activity ahead of a major global summit.
- G20 Summit: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Johannesburg, South Africa (November 21–23), to attend the 20th G20 Leaders’ Summit, marking the fourth consecutive summit hosted in the Global South.
- Russia Ties: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar inaugurated new Indian consulates in Yekaterinburg and Kazan, Russia, initiatives aimed at boosting trade and tourism. Jaishankar also reaffirmed India’s uncompromising stance against terrorism at the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting in Moscow.
- Domestic Politics: In India, Nitish Kumar took oath as Chief Minister of Bihar for a record 10th time.
Part III: U.S. Domestic Policy and Economic Signals
U.S. news was dominated by political fallout, transparency pushes, and mixed economic signals.
1. The "Charlie Kirk Purge" and Political Legacy
- The Purge: A Reuters investigation exposed the "Charlie Kirk Purge," a sweeping government initiative following the conservative activist’s assassination two months prior. Over 600 individuals—including teachers, officials, and media figures—faced firings, suspensions, or probes for alleged pro-Trump sympathies or "glorification of violence". This crackdown, endorsed by Republican leaders, sparked debates on free speech and raised concerns among European partners regarding America's internal stability.
- Cheney Memorial: A memorial service was held for former Vice President Dick Cheney at the Washington National Cathedral, though President Trump and VP Vance did not attend.
2. Transparency and Economic Activity
- Epstein Files: President Trump signed a bill mandating the Justice Department release of Jeffrey Epstein files within 30 days, including emails revealing connections to influential figures.
- Wall Street Volatility: Wall Street saw initial gains driven by Nvidia earnings but moderated later in the day due to Federal Reserve warnings of "outsized" asset declines in overvalued markets.
- Health Policy: The CDC revised its webpage on vaccines, changing statements related to autism, a move that alarmed experts who see it as undermining established science.
Part IV: Global Incidents and Other Stories
- Human Rights Advocacy: U.S. rapper Nicki Minaj addressed a UN side event on religious freedoms, urging immediate action to safeguard Nigerian Christians facing targeted violence from extremist groups. She highlighted over 200 attacks in northern Nigeria this year.
- Security Incidents: In India, the NIA arrested four more accused in the Red Fort blast case, bringing the total arrests to six. A train collision in the Czech Republic injured dozens.
- Space: SpaceX successfully launched another Starlink mission under special FAA clearance, expanding global satellite internet coverage.
- Diplomacy: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed an investment-protection pact with the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia’s announcement of $1 trillion in U.S. investments highlights shifting Gulf economic alignments.
In Summary: The world continues to navigate simultaneous crises. The renewed violence in the Middle East and Ukraine acts as a hammer, testing the fragile diplomatic structures put in place for post-conflict governance. Meanwhile, domestic political crackdowns and pushes for transparency, such as the Charlie Kirk Purge and the Epstein file release, reveal fundamental instability and division within powerful nations. This continuous cycle of conflict and internal reckoning makes sustained global stability increasingly elusive, much like trying to navigate a ship through a perpetual storm without a visible lighthouse.
Global Crossroads: Conflicts, Financial Volatility, and the Digital Future (November 2025 Edition)
Foreword: A World Defined by Fragmentation and Uncertainty
November 2025 finds the global landscape at a critical juncture, characterized by accelerating geopolitical rivalries, economic instability, and transformative technological shifts. The outlook, which once seemed headed for a soft landing, has been overshadowed by "turbulence and uncertainty". Long-established economic relationships are under strain, while structural weaknesses—such as high public debt and opaque non-bank financial positions—threaten global resilience.
This analysis synthesizes the major flashpoints and trends defining this shifting world, drawing heavily on recent geopolitical reports and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Annual Economic Report for 2025.
Part I: Geopolitical Tensions and Regional Conflicts
1. The Fragile Gaza Ceasefire and Post-War Governance
The most significant diplomatic development remains the Gaza peace plan, a multilateral agreement between Israel and Hamas negotiated by the United States, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt. The plan, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on September 29, 2025, and signed on October 9, aims to address the ongoing Gaza war, the hostage crisis, and subsequent reconstruction.
The plan was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on November 17, 2025, with the adoption of UNSC Resolution 2803.
Implementation and Violations
The first phase of the plan mandates an immediate cessation of hostilities and the return of all hostages (living and deceased) within 72 hours of the Israeli withdrawal to agreed-upon lines (the "yellow line"). In exchange, Israel agreed to release 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences, along with 1,700 Gazans detained after October 7, 2023. The release of 20 living hostages occurred on October 13.
However, the ceasefire has faced continuous threats and violations:
- Hostage Remains: By October 25, Hamas was accused by President Trump of withholding the remains of deceased hostages that the group could return immediately. As of November 2, the remains of three deceased hostages were returned, but 11 others remained in Gaza.
- Israeli Strikes: Israeli military actions continued despite the ceasefire, including strikes that violated the truce and killed Palestinians. On October 14, Israeli forces killed at least seven Palestinians in Gaza City and Khan Yunis, with the military claiming the targets ignored warning shots. On October 28, following an exchange of fire in Rafah, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered "powerful strikes" in Gaza, killing at least 104 people, including 66 children and women.
- Aid Restrictions: Israel temporarily closed the Rafah border crossing and limited humanitarian aid entry, citing Hamas's failure to return all deceased hostage remains. Despite the goal of 600 aid trucks daily under the ceasefire, the limit was reduced to 300. By November 18, an average of 800 aid trucks were entering the Gaza Strip daily.
- Governance and Reconstruction: Phase 3 involves transitional governance by a Palestinian Committee of technocrats, overseen by an international Board of Peace chaired by President Trump. The reconstruction effort is estimated to cost $70 billion.
Global Response and Future Concerns
The plan received broad international support from countries including France, Germany, the UAE, Turkey, and Canada. However, critics argue the plan risks "freezing subjugation under the language of peace" and forcing outcomes onto the Palestinian people. Furthermore, an Israeli bill to extend sovereignty to all Israeli settlements in the West Bank was criticized by the U.S. Secretary of State as "counterproductive" to the peace plan.
2. Escalating East Asia and Indo-Pacific Tensions
China-Japan Diplomatic Fallout
Diplomatic tensions between China and Japan have led to widespread cancellations of Chinese travel to Japan. The dispute arose after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan could become militarily involved if China attempted to invade Taiwan.
This political statement had immediate commercial consequences:
- Travel Cancellations: About 500,000 flight tickets to Japan were cancelled between November 15 and 17.
- Airlines Respond: At least seven Chinese airlines offered free cancellations, and some scheduled flights were cancelled entirely, citing "company planning reasons".
- Cultural Boycott: Film distributors indefinitely postponed the screening of at least two Japanese films in China, and sales for an already-released Japanese film slumped due to "strong dissatisfaction from Chinese audiences".
The situation is critical given that China is the second-largest source of tourists to Japan, and a 2024 survey found that over 50% of respondents from both countries regarded each other as important economic and trade partners.
China’s Disinformation Campaign Against India
A separate source of regional tension involved allegations of Chinese interference in the India-Pakistan border conflict that occurred in May 2025. According to a US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report submitted to Congress, China initiated a disinformation campaign to hinder the sale of French Rafale aircraft to India, in favor of its own J-35s. This campaign allegedly used fake social media accounts to propagate AI images of supposed "debris" from the Rafale planes that China’s weaponry destroyed.
India’s military capability is being bolstered by the U.S., which approved the possible sale of Javelin Missile Systems and Excalibur Projectiles valued at $93 million.
3. Escalation in Ukraine and Russian Strikes
Russian aggression continues with intense aerial assaults. Russian missile and drone strikes targeted the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil, killing at least 26 civilians, including children, and causing significant damage to residential areas.
Amid the ongoing conflict, diplomatic proposals regarding a peace framework are circulating. Discussions concern a U.S. proposal that may ask Kyiv to cede territory and trim forces, which some European allies view as a potential "Munich moment".
4. Arctic Geopolitical Rivalries and Economic Opportunities
Geopolitical competition is accelerating in the Arctic alongside new economic opportunities.
- Military Expansion: NATO announced its first successful exercise on Jan Mayen island, signaling enhanced Arctic capabilities. Russia’s underwater surveillance system in the Arctic uses Western-acquired technology.
- Economic Routes: China completed the first scheduled container service from East Asia to Northern Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which cuts transit time nearly in half compared to the Cape of Good Hope route.
- Infrastructure Investment: The accelerating demand for polar broadband and subsea cable protection creates major opportunities for technology and infrastructure firms. Executives are advised to pursue public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Arctic infrastructure.
Part II: Global Economic and Financial Volatility
The global economy is facing severe headwinds, magnified by trade policy shifts and pre-existing structural vulnerabilities.
1. Financial Markets and Policy Uncertainty
The stability expected in early 2025 dissolved in the second quarter following the announcement of larger-than-expected broad-based US tariffs. These policy shifts elevated measures of economic uncertainty to levels typically associated with crises.
The announcement of significant reciprocal US tariffs in early April caused global financial markets to revolt:
- Volatility Surge: Volatility climbed to levels unseen since the pandemic.
- Market Reaction: Stock markets plunged globally, corporate credit spreads widened, and the US dollar unusually depreciated against major currencies (euro, yen, Swiss franc) during this risk-off episode.
- Tariff Impact: Tariffs, expected to reach levels unseen in decades, are a negative supply shock that reduces output and increases prices. They cause uncertainty that dampens business investment; estimates suggest a substantial negative impact on investment in 2025 and 2026 (Graph 7.B).
Central banks across various economies, including the European Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China, and the Bank of Mexico, responded by cutting policy rates, citing risks from trade conflict and uncertainty. Global GDP growth forecasts were consequently revised lower, with 2025 growth now expected to be 2.7%.
2. Structural Vulnerabilities and High Debt
The global economy is hampered by several long-standing vulnerabilities:
- Low Potential Growth: Potential growth has been steadily declining for decades in many economies.
- Fiscal Vulnerabilities: Public debt levels in many countries have risen above peacetime highs. Current debt service costs in many economies are as high as spending on education, defense, or public pensions. This vulnerability increases the risk that bond yields could rise higher, especially if inflation proves more volatile.
- Non-Bank Financial Intermediation (NBFIs): Financial intermediation has shifted significantly from banks to NBFIs (including investment funds, hedge funds, and private credit funds), which now play a larger role in cross-border transactions and key financial markets.
The Linchpin Role of FX Swaps
A core function in the new, market-based financial system is the use of Foreign Exchange (FX) swaps, forwards, and currency swaps, which allow NBFIs (like pension funds and insurance companies) to hedge currency risks associated with globally diversified portfolios.
- Scale: By the end of 2024, the global volume of these derivatives had grown to $111 trillion, with 90% denominated in US dollars. This greatly exceeds the global stock of cross-border bank credit ($40 trillion) and international bonds ($29 trillion).
- Risk: This heavy reliance exposes NBFIs to significant short-term rollover risks and funding pressures. The expansion of NBFIs’ role amplifies the transmission of financial shocks across borders.
3. US Stock Market Rebound
Despite the broader economic uncertainty, the US stock market saw a massive rebound on November 20, 2025, driven largely by technology earnings and AI demand.
- Nvidia Surge: Nvidia’s earnings beat estimates, and CEO Jensen Huang reported that demand for the new Blackwell AI chips is "off the charts." Nvidia shares surged nearly 5%, leading the tech sector higher. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.2%.
- Economic Data: The jobs report, delayed by the recent U.S. government shutdown, surprised economists, showing that U.S. payrolls grew by 119,000 in September (well above the 51,000 forecast). This mixed data—strong job creation but a slight rise in unemployment (to 4.4% from 4.3%)—fueled market hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with odds rising to 35%.
- Retail Strength: Walmart reinforced market optimism by reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and raising its full-year sales outlook.
Part III: The Next Generation of Money, Technology, and Climate
1. Building the Tokenised Financial System
Central banks are focused on harnessing digital innovation to build the foundation for the next-generation monetary and financial system. This system is grounded on tokenisation, which involves representing financial claims on a programmable platform to enable the contingent execution of actions.
The core vision is the "unified ledger," integrating:
- Tokenised Central Bank Reserves: Provides a stable, trusted settlement asset for wholesale transactions.
- Tokenised Commercial Bank Money: Builds on the traditional two-tier system with new functionalities.
- Tokenised Government Bonds: Could enhance liquidity and support financial transactions like collateral management.
Project Agorá is a concrete example of this vision, bringing together tokenized central and commercial bank money from seven jurisdictions to explore seamless operations in correspondent banking, moving past the traditional separation of messaging, clearing, and settlement.
2. Stablecoin Challenges
While digital innovation is promising, stablecoins—which continue to grow—face challenges when measured against the foundational requirements of money: singleness, elasticity, and integrity.
- Integrity: Stablecoins raise integrity concerns because they are accessed via unhosted wallets, which are not subject to Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, and transactions are pseudonymous.
- Market Impact: Stablecoins have become sizable participants in the market. They were among the top buyers of T-bills in 2024, on par with government money market funds (MMFs). However, stablecoins tend to react negatively (exhibit larger redemptions) to monetary policy tightening, similar to risky assets such as stocks.
3. AI Advancements in November 2025
AI continues its rapid transformation across industries, moving from theoretical potential to practical applications.
- Research and Healthcare: AI is accelerating drug discovery by helping researchers design new compounds faster. In diagnostics, AI tools are improving accuracy by analyzing medical imaging and detecting early cancer markers.
- Generative Content: New tools allow for the creation of high-quality videos and the generation of 3D scenes from text descriptions, opening up new possibilities in gaming and architectural design.
- Industry Focus: The AI Apps directory now lists over 1,000 verified tools. Enterprises are seeing measurable benefits from integrating generative AI, including substantial time savings in content creation, though successful cases always involve human oversight.
- Talent Demand: Demand for AI-skilled professionals is skyrocketing, extending beyond core research roles to include Product Managers, sales professionals, and operations experts who can integrate AI into workflows.
4. Climate and Humanitarian Crises
COP30: Climate Change as a Health Crisis
The COP30 Summit in Brazil highlighted the urgent link between climate change and global health. A report released by the WHO and the Government of Brazil warned that climate change is already driving a global health emergency, with over 540,000 people dying annually from extreme heat.
The Belém Health Action Plan (unveiled November 13, 2025) urges governments to integrate health objectives into climate plans, invest in resilient health infrastructure, and harness financial savings from decarbonization to fund health adaptation.
Separately, a massive fire was reported at the COP30 Summit venue, though the Brazilian tourism minister confirmed it was controlled and no one was hurt.
Humanitarian Funding Shortfall
The humanitarian community is struggling to meet global needs amidst severe funding cuts. By July 2025, the Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) had reported only $7.64 billion in funding against requirements of $45.48 billion (16.8% funded). This shortfall is approximately 40% less than the funding received during the same period the previous year. This forced an urgent "hyper-prioritization" to target extremely scarce resources toward life-saving actions.
For the Occupied Palestinian Territory, the Flash Appeal requirements were substantial at $4.07 billion, achieving 37.1% funding as of November 20, 2025.
5. Scientific Breakthrough: Moss in Space
In a breakthrough for astrobiology, scientists reported that moss spores survived a nine-month exposure on the outside of the International Space Station (ISS). This experiment focused solely on survival under space exposure. Researchers suggest this plant’s resilience indicates it could one day contribute to oxygen generation or soil formation (turning dust and rocks into fertile soil) on missions beyond Earth. The ability of moss to germinate and grow in extraterrestrial conditions remains an open question.
Conclusion: Navigating the NAVI World
The events of November 2025 underscore that global leaders are operating in a NAVI world: nonlinear, accelerated, volatile, and interconnected. From the complexity of financing post-conflict reconstruction in Gaza using international bodies and Gulf funding, to the volatility introduced by tariffs and NBFIs in financial markets, predictability is eroding. Success in this environment depends on policymakers acting as a stabilizing force, prioritizing stability, ensuring sustainable fiscal positions, and embracing innovation like tokenisation while managing its risks.
A fixed point of stability is crucial in a time of rapid global change, much like a central bank anchor ensures the value of money remains consistent, providing the necessary trust for all other economic activities to flourish amidst swirling uncertainty.
100 question-and-answer pairs on concerning global economic trends, geopolitical conflicts, technological advancements, and humanitarian issues
I. Global Economic Outlook and Policy (BIS Chapter I)
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Q: What caused the global economy's outlook to shift from a "soft landing" to one of "turbulence and uncertainty" in early April 2025?
A: The shift followed a wave of larger-than-expected tariff announcements in early April, which hit the global economy.
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Q: What effect do increased tariffs have on the economies that impose them?
A: Increased tariffs are a negative supply shock in imposing countries, which reduces output and increases prices.
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Q: What impact did the sudden announcement of reciprocal US tariffs have on global financial markets in early April?
A: Global financial markets were shaken, volatility surged to levels unseen since the pandemic, stock markets plunged globally, and the US dollar unusually depreciated against major currencies.
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Q: What is the current projected global GDP growth rate for 2025?
A: Global GDP growth forecasts were revised lower, with 2025 growth expected to be 2.7%. (Based on Graph 1.A context.)
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Q: What impact did policy uncertainty have on economic activity?
A: Elevated trade and policy uncertainty could weigh on economic activity.
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Q: What are the three broad categories of vulnerabilities clouding the global economic outlook?
A: The vulnerabilities include real vulnerabilities (like low potential output growth), rising fiscal vulnerabilities, and related macro-financial vulnerabilities associated with structural shifts in the global financial system.
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Q: How does high public debt jeopardize fiscal stability?
A: Public debt levels in many countries have risen above peacetime highs, and current debt service costs are as high as spending on education, defense, or public pensions.
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Q: How high are average household inflation expectations for the next 12 months, according to the BIS international survey conducted in March-April 2025?
A: Households, on average, expect inflation over the next 12 months to be about 8%.
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Q: What percentage of their public debt stock are some countries set to refinance within the next two years?
A: Some countries are set to refinance up to half (50%) of their public debt stock within the next two years.
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Q: How does a household's knowledge of the central bank correlate with its inflation expectations?
A: Inflation expectations are negatively correlated with households' knowledge of the central bank; those aware of the central bank tend to have significantly lower inflation expectations (by 2.3 percentage points if recognizing the name, and 1.2 percentage points if believing it seeks price stability).
II. Structural Shifts in the Global Financial System (BIS Chapter II)
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Q: What is the primary focus of financial intermediation since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC)?
A: The focus has shifted from lending to private sector borrowers toward claims on the government, especially in the form of sovereign bonds.
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Q: Which types of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) have seen particularly striking growth post-GFC?
A: The growth of investment funds and hedge funds has been particularly striking.
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Q: What is the purpose of Foreign Exchange (FX) swaps and forwards for international investors like pension funds?
A: They are used by NBFIs to hedge currency risk associated with globally diversified asset portfolios, as their obligations are typically in domestic currency.
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Q: What was the total global outstanding notional value of FX swaps, forwards, and currency swaps by the end of 2024?
A: The global volume had grown to $111 trillion by end-2024.
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Q: What percentage of the global FX swaps, forwards, and currency swaps outstanding by end-2024 were denominated in US dollars?
A: Dollar borrowing through these instruments accounted for 90% of the $111 trillion globally outstanding.
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Q: What specific risk do NBFIs face due to their heavy reliance on short-maturity FX derivatives?
A: They are exposed to significant short-term rollover risks and funding pressures.
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Q: In the new market-based financial system, who has become the main foreign private creditors of advanced economies’ governments?
A: NBFIs have expanded their position as sovereigns' main foreign private creditors.
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Q: How do FX swaps function conceptually, according to the sources?
A: An FX swap is essentially a collateralized borrowing operation.
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Q: How is the phenomenon of rising cross-country co-movement of key asset returns measured?
A: By the share of variance explained by the first principal component of the individual country returns, which has increased in recent years, particularly for government bond yields and corporate spreads.
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Q: How does an exchange rate appreciation of an Emerging Market Economy (EME) currency correlate with its local currency sovereign bond spreads over US Treasury yields?
A: There is a highly significant systematic negative correlation—appreciation is associated with a drop in local currency bond spreads.
III. The Next-Generation Monetary and Financial System (BIS Chapter III)
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Q: What core concept is driving the creation of the next-generation monetary and financial system?
A: Tokenisation, which involves representing financial claims on a programmable platform to enable the contingent execution of actions.
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Q: What is the "trilogy" of tokenized assets proposed to form the foundation of a future financial system?
A: Tokenised Central Bank Reserves, Tokenised Commercial Bank Money, and Tokenised Government Bonds.
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Q: What role do tokenized central bank reserves play in maintaining the integrity of the future monetary system?
A: They provide a stable and trusted settlement asset for wholesale transactions, ensuring the singleness of money.
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Q: What are the three key tests that money must fulfill to serve society, which stablecoins are assessed against?
A: Singleness of money, elasticity, and integrity.
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Q: Why do stablecoins fall short on the integrity test?
A: They raise integrity concerns because they can be accessed via unhosted wallets which are not subject to Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, and transactions are pseudonymous.
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Q: How do stablecoins typically fail the elasticity test?
A: Stablecoins fail because the issuer’s balance sheet cannot be expanded at will, unlike traditional banks which can elastically expand their balance sheets.
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Q: Which two stablecoins account for the majority of the market capitalization growth?
A: USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle).
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Q: In 2024, how did stablecoin purchases of T-bills compare to government money market funds (GMMFs)?
A: Stablecoins were among the top buyers of T-bills in 2024, on par with GMMFs.
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Q: How do stablecoins react to monetary policy tightening, similar to risky assets like stocks?
A: Stablecoins react negatively (exhibiting larger redemptions) to monetary policy tightening.
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Q: What is a core benefit of Delivery versus Payment (DvP) made possible by tokenization?
A: DvP greatly enhances the efficiency of securities markets by reducing counterparty risk and removing the need for reconciliation.
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Q: What is the aim of the BIS Innovation Hub's Project Agorá?
A: It brings together tokenized central and commercial bank money from seven jurisdictions to explore seamless operations in next-generation correspondent banking.
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Q: What kind of platform is suggested for the technical architecture of a unified ledger, given the governance requirements around data access?
A: A permissioned Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) platform.
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Q: How can Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning tools enhance the integrity of the monetary system?
A: AI can help combat financial crime by reducing false positives (legitimate transactions flagged as illicit) and increasing detection of fraudulent transactions.
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Q: What role can AI agents play in Anti-Money Laundering (AML)/Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) compliance?
A: AI agents can act as co-pilots by replicating human computer interactions to perform routine tasks involved in preparing suspicious activity reports.
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Q: What has been noted about tokenized bonds compared to conventional bonds?
A: Tokenized bonds exhibit lower bid-ask spreads.
IV. Gaza Peace Plan: Overview and Implementation
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Q: When was the Gaza Peace Plan (Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict) announced?
A: It was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on September 29, 2025.
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Q: When did the agreement officially take effect?
A: The agreement became effective on October 10, 2025.
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Q: Who were the official mediators of the Gaza Peace Plan?
A: The United States, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt.
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Q: What major international body endorsed the plan on November 17, 2025?
A: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) adopted Resolution 2803 endorsing the plan.
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Q: What is the primary commitment required of Hamas in Phase 1 regarding hostages?
A: All hostages (alive and deceased) must be returned within 72 hours of the completion of the withdrawal of Israeli forces to agreed-upon lines.
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Q: How many Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences was Israel set to release in Phase 1?
A: Israel was set to release 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences.
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Q: What happens if Hamas members commit to peaceful coexistence and decommission their weapons, according to Point 6 of the outline?
A: They will be given amnesty.
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Q: Who is designated to chair the new international transitional body, the "Board of Peace," responsible for oversight of Gaza?
A: President Donald J. Trump.
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Q: What specific Israeli action concerning deceased hostages caused a violation claim by Israel on October 13?
A: Israel accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire by returning the remains of only four deceased Israeli hostages, rather than all of them, on the same day.
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Q: What diplomatic step did the US take on November 3, 2025, regarding post-war Gaza security?
A: The US submitted a draft resolution to the UNSC seeking a two-year mandate for a Stabilization Force under the direction of the Board of Peace.
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Q: What did Prime Minister Netanyahu call a "clear violation" of the ceasefire on October 28?
A: The incident where Hamas handed over body parts, which an IDF video later suggested was a staged recovery of deceased hostage remains.
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Q: What must be immediately destroyed and not rebuilt under the plan's demilitarization goals?
A: All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities.
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Q: Who was reported to have met with Tony Blair on October 12, 2025, to discuss the ceasefire and reconstruction?
A: Vice president of the Palestinian Authority, Hussein al-Sheikh.
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Q: Which countries are included in the task force formed to follow up on the implementation of the agreement?
A: Representatives from the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey.
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Q: What diplomatic response did Netanyahu's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich give to the plan?
A: He denounced it as "a historic missed opportunity".
V. Geopolitical Flashpoints and Regional Tensions
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Q: What diplomatic statement by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi led to a diplomatic dispute with China?
A: Her statement that Japan could become militarily involved if China attempted to invade Taiwan.
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Q: What immediate commercial consequence followed the China-Japan diplomatic dispute in November 2025?
A: Chinese travelers cancelled hundreds of thousands of tickets to fly to Japan.
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Q: What action did Chinese film distributors take in response to the political tension with Japan?
A: They indefinitely postponed the screening of at least two Japanese films in China.
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Q: What did the cancelled annual Japan-China survey reveal about mutual economic importance in 2024?
A: Over 50% of respondents from both countries regarded each other as important economic and trade partners.
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Q: What recent event signaled NATO's efforts to enhance its Arctic operational capabilities?
A: NATO announced its first successful exercise on the remote island of Jan Mayen in late September.
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Q: What new route capability did China demonstrate recently in the Arctic?
A: China completed the first scheduled container service from East Asia to Northern Europe via the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
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Q: What primary advice is given to executives in the infrastructure sector regarding opportunities in the Arctic?
A: Executives should pursue public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Arctic infrastructure.
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Q: In which Ukrainian city did Russian missile and drone strikes kill at least 26 civilians, including children?
A: The western city of Ternopil.
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Q: What allegation did a US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report make regarding China's actions during the May 2025 India-Pakistan border conflict?
A: China initiated a disinformation campaign using fake social media accounts to hinder the sale of French Rafale aircraft to India.
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Q: What military equipment did the US approve for sale to India, valued at $93 million?
A: The Javelin Missile System and Excalibur Projectiles.
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Q: Where is the G20 Leaders Summit scheduled to be held on November 22-23, 2025?
A: South Africa.
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Q: What factor is compelling nearly 75% of CEOs globally to localize or regionalize production?
A: Trade tensions, fragmented regulatory environments, and geopolitical instability.
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Q: What is the EU doing in response to rising hybrid incidents, such as physical attacks quadrupling since 2023, concerning infrastructure?
A: Governments across Europe are designating national “critical entities” in digital, energy, financial and transport infrastructure to meet stricter resilience requirements.
VI. Humanitarian Action, Climate, and Science
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Q: What critical finding regarding public health was released in the WHO/Brazil special report at COP30?
A: Climate change is already driving a global health emergency, with over 540,000 people dying annually from extreme heat.
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Q: When was the Belém Health Action Plan unveiled at COP30 in Brazil?
A: November 13, 2025.
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Q: What investment percentage is recommended to safeguard health systems during climate shocks?
A: Allocating just 7% of adaptation finance to health is suggested to safeguard billions of people.
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Q: What event was reported at the COP30 Summit venue in Brazil on November 20, 2025?
A: A massive fire broke out at the venue, but it was controlled, and no one was hurt.
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Q: As of July 2025, how much funding had been reported for the Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO) requirements?
A: Only $7.64 billion had been reported.
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Q: How significant was the GHO funding shortfall reported by July 2025 compared to the previous year?
A: It was approximately 40 per cent less than the funding recorded at the same time last year.
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Q: What mandatory action did the severe funding cuts require the humanitarian community to undertake in the first quarter of 2025?
A: To urgently hyper-prioritize its response to direct scarce resources to life-saving actions.
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Q: What were the reported total financial requirements for the Flash Appeal for the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) as of November 20, 2025?
A: The requirements were $4.07 billion.
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Q: What was the scientific breakthrough concerning moss and the International Space Station (ISS)?
A: Moss spores survived a nine-month exposure on the outside of the ISS.
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Q: How might moss contribute to missions beyond Earth, according to researchers?
A: It could potentially contribute to oxygen generation or soil formation (turning dust and rocks into fertile soil).
VII. AI, Technology, and Financial Market Movements
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Q: What major stock market news occurred on November 20, 2025?
A: The US stock market saw a massive rebound, with the Dow jumping 621 points, the S&P 500 rising 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite rallying 2.2%.
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Q: What specific technology earnings report drove the massive stock market rebound on November 20, 2025?
A: Nvidia’s earnings beat estimates, and the company forecast strong Q4 revenue.
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Q: What did Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang say about the demand for the new Blackwell AI processors?
A: He stated that demand for the new Blackwell processors is "off the charts".
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Q: How much did US payrolls grow in September, according to the delayed jobs report released on November 20, 2025?
A: US payrolls grew by 119,000, significantly above the 51,000 expected forecast.
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Q: What specific retail company supported market optimism by raising its full-year guidance?
A: Walmart beat third-quarter earnings expectations and raised its full-year sales outlook.
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Q: What is one key way AI is transforming healthcare research?
A: AI is revolutionizing drug discovery by helping researchers design new compounds faster and more efficiently.
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Q: What is a key advancement in generative AI content creation, besides high-quality video generation?
A: AI can now generate 3D scenes from text descriptions, opening possibilities in gaming, architectural design, and virtual reality.
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Q: What standard is necessary for successful integration of generative AI in content creation and other workflows?
A: The most successful use cases pair AI-driven outputs with human oversight.
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Q: How large is the verified AI Apps directory as of November 2025?
A: It boasts over 1,000 carefully selected tools.
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Q: Besides AI researchers and machine learning engineers, which roles are seeing high demand for AI-skilled professionals?
A: Product Managers, sales professionals, and operations experts.
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Q: How do premium .ai domains help startups in the AI space?
A: They establish instant recognition and credibility, serving as professional credentials.
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Q: In which specific industry is AI improving accuracy by analyzing medical imaging and detecting early cancer markers?
A: Diagnostics in the healthcare industry.
VIII. Miscellaneous Facts and Details
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Q: What is the ISBN number (print) for the BIS Annual Economic Report 2025?
A: ISBN 978-92-9259-859-4 (print).
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Q: What is the mandate of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) according to the cover page?
A: Promoting global monetary and financial stability.
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Q: How is "trade policy uncertainty" measured in Graph 5.A?
A: It is based on news-based indices which show the share of articles related to a specified topic.
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Q: What is the recommended strategy for improving public awareness of the central bank's role?
A: Enhanced communication efforts could help lower and further stabilize inflation expectations.
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Q: What risk did the imposition of tariffs lead uncertain non-financial corporations (NFCs) to expand?
A: Uncertain firms expanded credit lines (undrawn credit) and may cut back on investment.
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Q: In the foreign holdings of AEs' government debt, what are the three main types of holders tracked?
A: Non-banks, Banks, and Official holders.
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Q: Which two currencies are noted to have recently seen interest rate swap spreads decline into negative territory, following the path of comparable US instruments?
A: Japanese yen and German euro swaps.
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Q: What event related to the G20 Summit did US President Trump threaten to boycott?
A: Trump announced his administration would boycott the G20 summit in Johannesburg.
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Q: What term is used to describe the phenomenon when complex interlocking obligations cannot be discharged due to participants waiting for others to pay first?
A: Gridlock.
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Q: What specific challenge does screening for sanctioned individuals often encounter?
A: The challenge of false positives.
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Q: What percentage of total variance in a dynamic factor model is explained by the first two factors (level and risk) of the BIS Financial Conditions Index (FCI)?
A: The first two factors explain about 60% of the total variance.
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Q: What were the key details of the political event in Bangladesh on November 20, 2025?
A: Ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to death for her role in suppressing a student uprising in 2024.
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Q: What did US Secretary of State Marco Rubio state regarding the potential peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war?
A: Washington “will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict”.
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Q: What major US political figure was the subject of a memorial service on November 20, 2025, which President Trump and VP Vance did not attend?
A: Former Vice President Dick Cheney.
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Q: Why was the September jobs report considered critical and given extra emphasis by analysts?
A: Because the recent US government shutdown delayed several key economic releases, including the usual October jobs update.

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