World Business News 17 July 2026– Global Markets & Earnings Updates

Gujarat leads in NITI Aayog's first investment friendliness index

NITI Aayog on Thursday released its inaugural Investment Friendliness Index 2026, with Gujarat emerging as the top performing state with an overall score of 56.6 out of 100, followed by larger states Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.

How were the states ranked?

The index evaluated all 28 states and eight union territories on eight pillars: infrastructure, business environment, resources, government policy, regulatory ease, institutional environment, financial health and environmental resilience. The states were divided into four categories – top performing, leading, emerging performing and aspiring states.

Gujarat's top ranking was attributed to its strong port operations and competitive power sector, while Maharashtra was recognized for its ability to attract private equity and venture capital. Tamil Nadu earned its position through the quality of infrastructure and export performance. Goa and Odisha dropped out of the top five.

NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Ashok Kumar Lahiri released the report at an event in New Delhi. CEO Nidhi Chhibber said the index is not intended to be "just a ranking exercise" but "a practical improvement tool" that will "enable states to benchmark their performance, identify priority areas for improvement and learn from each other's best practices".

India's vision for development

The initiative was first announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman during the Union Budget for the financial year 2025-26 as a means to promote competitive cooperative federalism. The report said India has recorded strong economic growth over the past three decades, but reaching high-income status by 2047 under the vision of a developed India will require faster growth and higher investment rates.

Lahiri said that "Investment is not a waste thing – it is a contemporary income, investment increases demand," underscoring the government's effort to improve policy predictability and state-level reforms to attract capital.

Saudi fund set to win EU approval for $55B EA deal

A consortium of investors led by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund is set to win EU approval for its $55 billion takeover of Electronic Arts, clearing one of the final regulatory hurdles for the largest leveraged buyout in history.

Expected to receive approval from the EU under subsidy and merger rules

The European Commission is expected to approve the deal after its preliminary review under the bloc's foreign subsidies regulation ends on July 30, according to a Reuters exclusive, citing people familiar with the matter. The deal is also expected to receive unconditional EU approval under separate merger rules when a preliminary antitrust review ends on July 22.

The FSR review, which was initiated by the consortium by filing on June 24, was designed to ensure that no unfair non-EU subsidies were used to gain a competitive advantage in the acquisition. The antitrust filing was submitted a week earlier, on June 17.

Record-breaking purchase nears end

The deal, announced in September 2025, will see PIF, private equity firm Silver Lake and Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners take the "Battlefield" and "Madden NFL" creator private for $210 a share. PIF, which already owned about 10 percent of EA before the announcement, will become the majority owner, Silver Lake will hold a minority stake and Affinity Partners will hold about five percent.

The acquisition is financed through approximately $36 billion of equity and $20 billion of debt arranged by JPMorgan. EA shareholders approved the transaction in December 2025.

final stage

Now with EU approval expected, the deal is on track to be completed in line with the consortium's timeline. The transaction was originally anticipated to be completed in the first quarter of EA's fiscal year 2027, which began on July 1, 2026. The company will be headquartered in Redwood City, California under CEO Andrew Wilson.

South Korea bans new leveraged ETF listings, triggering global chip selloff

US semiconductor stocks fell on Thursday as South Korea cracked down on single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds, adding to growing unease over lofty valuations in the AI ​​chip trade. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index fell 4.29%, while memory chip makers bore the brunt of the sales.

Korea's leveraged ETF ban triggers ripple effect

South Korea's Financial Services Commission announced Thursday it will temporarily ban new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs linked to major technology firms, while tripling the minimum deposit required for retail investors to trade such products to 30 million won (about $20,300), effective Aug. 5. The move comes after months of volatility in funds linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which surged in popularity after their launch in late May.

The regulatory crackdown jolted Asian markets, with the Kospi falling sharply while SK Hynix and Samsung fell. The selling accelerated in U.S. trading, where AI memory stocks including Western Digital and SanDisk were hardest hit.

TSMC's earnings fail to stop bleeding

The declines continued after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a record fifth consecutive quarter of profit early Thursday. Reuters reported that TSMC's U.S.-listed shares fell 2.1% despite the results, as investors cycled through risk-on and risk-off sentiment amid scrutiny of the high valuation.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5% in the session, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5%, as chip weakness overshadowed strong earnings from UnitedHealth Group and GE Aerospace.

Debate on supply-demand intensifies

The selloff comes against the backdrop of a structural memory chip shortage driven by AI infrastructure spending. According to industry analysis, 70% of memory chips produced globally in 2026 are destined for AI data centers, as manufacturers prioritize high-bandwidth memory over consumer-grade products. Analysts expect supply constraints to persist through 2027, although some are now questioning whether the shortfall will peak in the current quarter as capital spending growth faces renewed scrutiny.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the broader market remained under pressure from geopolitical concerns, with investors keeping an eye on the tech debacle as well as the US-Iran conflict.

Goyal says active talks underway on India-EU investment, GI agreement

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Friday confirmed that India and the European Union are actively negotiating investment protection and geographical indications agreements, the next step after concluding their free trade agreement earlier this year.

Agreements are still being finalized

Speaking at the India-Estonia Business Forum during his official visit to Estonia, Goyal said the FTA has already been finalized and two additional agreements are under negotiation. "We have already finalized a free trade agreement. Two more agreements are going to happen in the next phase - investment protection agreement and GI agreement. Work on both is in progress," Goyal said.

India-EU FTA negotiations were concluded on January 27, 2026 and the agreement is expected to be signed by the end of 2026, with implementation expected in early 2027. Goyal described the deal as "probably the fastest free trade agreement to be ratified in the EU from the date of handshake to implementation".

European business architecture of India

Goyal said that with trade agreements now in place with the United Kingdom, the European Free Trade Association bloc and the European Union, India is "effectively connected to the entire European market". The minister's comments came during an extensive European tour that took him to Spain, Belgium, Finland and Estonia from July 13 to 17.

The GI agreement is being negotiated separately, aimed at protecting traditional products of both the EU and India from imitation. The investment protection agreement will provide a framework for bilateral investment flows – Goyal said India has attracted more than one trillion dollars of foreign direct investment in the last two decades.

comprehensive cooperation

At the India-Estonia Forum, Goyal highlighted opportunities in education, defence, space, skill development and tourism. He pointed to a decade of reforms that have made India a "long-term attractive investment destination" and invited Estonian businesses to invest. The FTA text is currently undergoing legal revision and translation into all official EU languages ​​before being submitted to the European Council for approval and then to the European Parliament for assent.

Jio Platforms files IPO prospectus, Q1 profit up 9.2%

Reliance Industries on Friday reported Q1FY27 results, with its telecom arm Jio Platforms contributing 9.2% year-on-year growth in net profit to ₹7,764 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. Revenue from operations grew 11.8% year-on-year to ₹39,173 crore, while total revenue reached ₹45,961 crore, up 12% from a year ago.

The company's average revenue per user rose to ₹215.6, from ₹208.8 a year ago and ₹214 in the previous March quarter, reflecting continued monetization gains. Jio's subscriber base grew to 533.3 million, with a net growth of 8.9 million during the quarter and 35.2 million over the last year. The platform now has 285 million 5G users among its customers.

Margin expansion on operational efficiency

Jio Platforms' EBITDA rose 15.1% year-on-year to ₹20,865 crore, with margins expanding to 53.3% from 51.8% a year ago. The sharper growth in EBITDA compared to profit reflects continued investment in network expansion and digital services, even as operating leverage has improved.

Original Reliance Report Mixed Pictures

At the consolidated level, Reliance Industries reported revenue of ₹3.40 lakh crore, a growth of 25% year-on-year, with the oil-to-chemicals business reporting its strongest EBITDA in four years. However, net profit was reported to have fallen 22% year-on-year to ₹20,946 crore, a decline driven entirely by the absence of a one-time gain of ₹8,924 crore from the sale of Asian Paints stake in Q1 FY26.

Excluding that exceptional item, recurring net profit reached a record quarterly high, according to the company. Recurring consolidated EBITDA grew 10.1% to ₹54,067 crore.

Jio IPO filing increased momentum

Along with the earnings, Reliance revealed that Jio Platforms has filed a draft red herring prospectus for its initial public offering, a long-awaited move that will give public investors direct access to India's largest telecom operator. Shares of Reliance Industries rose ahead of the announcement of results on Friday.

China to raise fuel prices as global oil prices rise due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

China's top economic planner announced on Thursday that it will raise the domestic retail fuel price ceiling from Saturday, July 18, as global crude oil prices surge due to renewed US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz. The move comes as Morocco, Pakistan and Ghana have raised or hinted at increasing pump prices within the same week, underscoring the worldwide impact of the ongoing conflict.

China adjusts price limit

Citing rising global crude prices, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said domestic retail petrol and diesel prices will rise by 300 yuan ($44.28) per metric tonne and 290 yuan per metric tonne, respectively, from July 18. The adjustment follows a sharp cut on July 4, when the NDRC cut prices to 950 yuan and 915 yuan per metric ton for gasoline and diesel during a brief period of market stabilization, according to Reuters.

Morocco, Pakistan and Ghana also follow suit

According to the National Federation of Service Station Owners, distributors in Morocco have raised diesel prices by MAD 0.70 per liter and gasoline prices by MAD 0.38 per liter since Thursday, July 16, under the country's biweekly pricing mechanism. Diesel now costs around 13.30 dirhams per litre, while gasoline is around 14.24 dirhams.

In Pakistan, consumers are in for another blow: high-speed diesel prices may rise by Rs 40 per liter and petrol prices by Rs 10 per liter in a fortnightly review expected on Friday night, July 18, according to Pakistan Today. The increase comes exactly a week ago on July 11, when petrol rose by Rs 13.18 per liter to Rs 310.71 and diesel by Rs 13.80 per liter to Rs 323.30.

The National Petroleum Authority of Ghana increased prices effective July 16, with petrol rising from GH¢12.79 to GH¢13.28 per liter and diesel rising from GH¢13.54 to GH¢14.35 per litre. The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies has estimated an increase of 5.3% in petrol and 7.5% in diesel.

Prices rise due to tension in the Strait of Hormuz

The surge in fuel prices across many continents has the same source: Oil prices jumped after the latest exchange of hostilities between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported on July 13. The waterway, which carried about 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade before the conflict began in March 2026, is partially blocked. Pakistan Today specifically cited US-Iran tensions for the increasing pressure on domestic fuel prices.

India has emerged as the world's refining swing producer

India is set to export about 1.4 million barrels of refined petroleum products per day in July, according to Kpler vessel-tracking estimates, about 50 percent more than in May and about a fifth more than a year earlier. The surge positions the world's fourth-largest refining hub as a key frontier supplier of diesel and jet fuel at a time when Middle Eastern and Russian refining capacity remains damaged or offline.Finance.

War-induced shortage creates an opportunity

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict earlier this year and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to the destruction of a large portion of Gulf refining infrastructure. A Reuters commentary published in June noted that more than 14 million barrels of oil production per day had gone offline, about 14 percent of global demand, and that Gulf refineries could take 40 to 60 days to reach 90 to 95 percent capacity even after a decision to restart them. The Mesaieed refinery in Qatar has been operating at reduced capacity since March. According to Ninety One Asset Management, the disruption has caused global reserves to decline by more than a billion barrels since the beginning of the conflict.

Indian refiners have filled this gap. Shipping data compiled by OPIS shows India is expected to export about 1.03 million metric tons of jet fuel in July – double the June volume – as well as 1.84 million metric tons of gasoil, the bulk of which is headed westward to Africa and Europe.

Reliance Industries diversified supplies

Reliance Industries, which operates the world's largest refinery complex in Jamnagar, said in its Q1FY27 results on Thursday that it has increased sourcing of crude oil from Russia and Latin America during the June quarter to reduce dependence on Arabian Gulf suppliers. The company's oil-to-chemicals business generated record revenues of over Rs 2 trillion, with EBITDA growing 17.2 per cent year-on-year.

Reliance had resumed buying non-sanctioned Russian crude as early as 2026 and in March won a temporary US Treasury waiver allowing purchases from ships loaded before March 5.

Government calibrates export levy

The Indian government unexpectedly increased taxes on diesel and jet fuel exports from July 16, increasing diesel levy from Rs 8.5 to Rs 15.5 per liter and jet fuel levy from Rs 7.5 to Rs 14.5, as rising global crude prices pushed up refining margins. The fortnightly adjustment underlines New Delhi's effort to balance domestic fuel affordability with the money Indian refiners are earning by supplying to the highest bidder abroad.

Analysts say India is increasingly deciding who will get the next diesel or jet fuel cargo – a role traditionally tied to Saudi Arabia's crude production decisions.

Reliance Retail Q1 profit declines as accelerated trade costs rise

Reliance Retail Ventures, the retail arm of Reliance Industries, reported a decline in net profit for the April-June quarter of fiscal 2027, even as revenue grew and customer transactions increased, according to results announced on Friday.

Revenue up, profits down

The company posted profit after tax of Rs 2,806 crore for Q1 FY27, lower than the year-ago period, while gross revenue rose 7.4% year-on-year to Rs 90,408 crore from Rs 84,171 crore. EBITDA from operations fell 1.8% to Rs 5,935 crore, with EBITDA margin declining 80 basis points to 7.9%, reflecting the cost of growing its digital and instant commerce businesses.

According to CNBCTV18, the comprehensive EBITDA figure, which includes non-operating items, stood at Rs 6,309 crore, down 1.1% from Rs 6,381 crore a year ago.

instant commerce push drive spend

The pressure on margins has stemmed from Reliance Retail's aggressive push into faster delivery services. The company's four-hour fashion delivery platform Ajio Rush and JioMart, which now serves around 5,500 pin codes in over 1,200 cities, continued to scale up during the quarter. Grocery orders have more than doubled year-over-year, according to company filings.

Customer transactions increased 46% year-on-year to 568 million, while the registered customer base increased to 396 million. The company added 252 stores during the quarter, taking its total network to 20,169 outlets.

broader context

The results came as Reliance Industries reported a 22% year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 20,946 crore, down from an extraordinary gain of Rs 8,924 crore from the sale of its stake in Asian Paints in the year-ago quarter, The Indian Express reported. Excluding that one-time item, the group recorded record recurring operating profit with double-digit growth across its core businesses, according to Moneycontrol.

India raised $7.7 billion in foreign bond purchases ahead of Bloomberg Index's decision.

Foreign portfolio investors have so far invested about $7.7 billion in Indian government bonds due in 2026, as tax reforms and the prospect of inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index attract foreign capital to the debt market of the world's fifth-largest economy.

tax overhaul fuel record flow

India's decision in early June to eliminate the 12.5% ​​long-term capital gains tax and 20% withholding tax on interest income for foreign investors in government securities, effective April 1, 2026, has changed the appeal of Indian debt. The Income Tax (Amendment) Ordinance, 2026, approved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Cabinet, exempts foreign portfolio investors from all taxes on interest income and capital gains generated from government securities.

The reforms led to the surge: Foreign investors bought a record $3 billion of Indian government bonds under the fully accessible route in June alone, according to Reuters, citing data from the Clearing Corporation of India. Global fund managers including Pictet and Neuberger Berman have moved to increase their India bond exposure following the tax change, with Deloitte India estimating that the exemption could boost returns for foreign investors by 15 to 20 per cent.

Fear of decision on Bloomberg index

According to the Economic Times, Bloomberg's index committee was expected to meet in mid-July to review India's eligibility for the Global Aggregate Index. Bloomberg postponed a decision in January, citing the need to review operational and market infrastructure issues, but said it would provide an update by mid-2026.

Market participants estimate that actual inclusion will occur as early as 2027, with India potentially gaining a weighting of around 0.7% in the index. DBS Bank treasury chief Ashish Vaidya told CNBC that this could lead to an inflow of "$25 to $27 billion" by fiscal 2028. Indian bonds are already included in three emerging market indices – JPMorgan EM Index from June 2024, Bloomberg EM Index from January 2025, and FTSE Russell EM Index from September 2025.

Yields will remain stable as auction approaches

The benchmark 10-year Indian government bond yield stood steady at 6.75% on July 17, having fallen nearly 9 basis points in the past month. While foreign investors have been consistent buyers of debt, they have also sold Indian equities worth $27.6 billion due in 2026, although the trend reversed in July as FPIs also became net buyers of stocks.

US reinstates Hong Kong's special trade status due to expiration of 2020 order

China's commerce ministry said Friday the United States will restore Hong Kong's special trading status after Washington refused to renew an executive order six years ago that denied the city preferential treatment.

China said Washington has confirmed it will not extend Executive Order 13936, a 2020 directive that revoked Hong Kong's exclusive trade and regulatory privileges under US law, after the renewal date passed this week, according to Reuters. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

six year policy reversed

President Trump signed the order on July 14, 2020, for the first time during his first term, in response to Beijing imposing national security laws on Hong Kong. The order declared that Hong Kong no longer needed to be treated as a separate entity from mainland China and directed federal agencies to eliminate preferential policies in trade, immigration and security cooperation.

Under the order, Hong Kong lost export license exceptions, became subject to the same arms embargo as mainland China, and "Made in China" products were re-labeled for US customs purposes. The directive also suspended the Fulbright exchange program with Hong Kong, ended the training of Hong Kong police at US law enforcement academies, and revoked preferential treatment for Hong Kong passport holders.

The order additionally authorizes the imposition of several rounds of sanctions between 2020 and 2025 against individuals deemed responsible for undermining Hong Kong's autonomy.

Context of broader US-China engagement

The decision not to renew the order comes amid broader tensions in U.S.-China economic relations. In November 2025, both countries agreed to suspend enhanced reciprocal tariffs on each other's imports until November 2026. The omission of the Hong Kong order represents another element of that thaw.

Most recently in July 2025, Trump renewed the national emergency under the order for an additional year. The State Department's April 2026 report on conditions in Hong Kong still assessed that Beijing has continued to weaken the city's autonomy and has ensured that Hong Kong no longer guarantees its former special treatment.

China described the move as an important step towards restoring normal economic and trade relations with Hong Kong. It is unclear whether sanctions imposed on individual Hong Kong officials under separate legislative authorities, including the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, will also be affected.

Anglo American selects global diamond consortium to buy De Beers

Botswana's state president, Defense and Security Minister Moeti Mohwasa, told parliament on Friday that Anglo American has selected the Global Diamond Consortium as its preferred bidder for its 85% stake in De Beers.

Three-way race concludes

“Anglo American ran a competitive process involving three shortlisted bidders, and has since identified a preferred bidder, Global Diamond Consortium,” Mohwasa told lawmakers in Gaborone. According to Reuters, the consortium's proposal includes fellow diamond producing countries Angola and Namibia.

The deal is expected to close by the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to a number of conditions, including Botswana Government approval. An Anglo American spokesperson said the sale process was ongoing and would be updated in due course.

Botswana is considering its options

Botswana, which owns 15% of De Beers, retains the right of first refusal on the sale. Mohwasa said the government has complete freedom to either include the preferred bidder as a partner, independently exercise its pre-emptive rights, or team up with a third party. He said the government was consulting financial advisers on the best structure.

Botswana President Duma Boko said last year that the country wanted to increase its controlling stake to more than 50%. How the government reconciles that ambition with the consortium's bid remains an open question.

long road for sale

Anglo American is trying to sell De Beers as part of a broader portfolio restructuring. In February 2026, the company took a new $2.3 billion hit on De Beers, and its chief executive indicated that the diamond firm would likely be sold to a public-private consortium. Angola's state diamond company Andiama has submitted a "fully funded" proposal for a minority stake in 2025, with Botswana, Namibia and South Africa invited to participate.

The global diamond market is facing headwinds due to declining rough production and increasing competition from lab-grown stones, increasing the urgency of a transaction that would reshape the ownership of one of the industry's best-known names.

PSBs expect $30 billion from RBI's NRI deposit scheme

Indian public sector banks have told senior government officials they expect to raise about $30 billion through the Reserve Bank of India's subsidized dollar deposit window by the September 30 deadline, according to Reuters, citing five bankers familiar with the matter. This estimate comes as inflows so far have reached about $10 billion – well below initial analyst estimates of $40 billion to $70 billion.

Slow start amid low spread

The RBI on June 8 launched its concessional swap facility to absorb hedging costs on three- to five-year foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits to allow lenders to offer rates of 6-7 per cent to non-resident Indians. Banks including State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank immediately raised FCNR (B) rates by 200-300 basis points.

Still the influx has disappointed. Analysts say the interest rate differential between Indian deposits and US Treasury yields is narrower than in 2013, when the RBI last opened a similar window. Business Standard reported that the gap has narrowed to about 2.1 per cent for the five-year period, reducing the incentive for NRIs who already earn competitive returns in the United States. The rupee has weakened by more than 1 percent against the dollar this week as the shortage becomes apparent.

Banks expect late bounce

According to a Reuters report, the estimated investment from large public sector banks is $4-5 billion, while smaller lenders are targeting $1-2 billion. Bankers say they expect a large amount of deposits to come in in August and September as NRIs complete paperwork and transfers closer to the deadline.

The scheme exempts banks from reserve requirements on these deposits, and the RBI has recently eased lending rules to allow banks to offer leveraged products against FCNR(B) balances, a move designed to accelerate mobility. Goldman Sachs estimates total inflows from the comprehensive package of measures at $30-50 billion through calendar year 2026, while SBI Research had initially estimated $40-45 billion through the FCNR(B) route alone.

window closing

The deposit raising window remains open until September 30, with swaps available until October 16. Whether banks can bridge the gap between current inflows and their $30 billion target will largely depend on whether the rate differential is sustained and whether operational hurdles – including documentation requirements for NRIs – can be eased in the coming weeks.

EU unveils plan to reduce cross-border banking barriers

The European Commission published a long-awaited banking competitiveness report on Friday, outlining plans to remove national barriers to cross-border banking, ease capital requirements for banking groups and replace its decade-old proposal for a European deposit insurance scheme – a package designed to help EU lenders compete with larger US rivals.

Freeing up capital and curbing political interference

The report, which sets the stage for legislative proposals in the first quarter of 2027, takes aim at what the Commission sees as fragmentation hampering Europe's banking sector. Among the most consequential measures, the Commission plans to allow cross-border banking groups to meet capital and liquidity requirements at the core level, rather than duplicating them into individual subsidiaries, as is currently required under EU rules. According to Reuters, removing such constraints could release around €230 billion ($263.1 billion) of liquid assets.

The Commission also indicated that it would crack down on member states that violate EU rules by politically intervening in proposed banking mergers. According to a report by the Association for Financial Markets in Europe, cross-border bank acquisitions in Europe currently take an average of 285 days, making EU banking M&A the slowest in the world.

Transforming EDIS and simplifying rules

In a move acknowledging years of political impasse, the Commission said it would withdraw its original proposal for a European Deposit Insurance Scheme, or EDIS – the cornerstone of an incomplete banking union proposed nearly a decade ago – and replace it with a new, simplified approach to harmonizing deposit insurance across the bloc. The EU adopted its crisis management and deposit insurance framework in March 2026, but a fully mutual deposit guarantee system has been politically unattainable.

The report also calls for simplifying "unduly complex and burdensome" supervisory requirements, part of a broader effort to make EU banks more competitive globally. Banking Policy Forum Ireland welcomed the proposals, which highlighted measures to address national gold-plating of EU rules and re-evaluate remuneration rules.

the way forward

The Commission's report comes after months of lobbying by the industry for targeted consultations and regulatory relief starting in February 2026. Concrete legislative changes are expected to be in place by the end of March 2027, subject to negotiation with the European Parliament and Member States. The reform effort comes as Europe faces what Reuters described in June as an annual investment gap of €1.4 trillion, underscoring the urgency for Brussels to unlock bank lending capacity.

Reliance reports Q1 results amid Gulf crude pivot

Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, took a heavy hit to crude supplies from Russia and Latin America during the June quarter, reducing its exposure to Arabian Gulf crude as the renewed US-Iran conflict roiled energy markets and blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The company, which operates the world's largest single-site refinery complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, is set to report its first quarter FY27 results on Friday. Brokerage firms expect the oil-to-chemicals segment to pick up steam, with consolidated EBITDA projected to grow between 4 to 10 percent year-on-year, partly on the strength of higher refining margins and what analysts described as operational agility in crude purchases.

a quarter of the interruption

The period from April to June was marked by extraordinary instability in the Persian Gulf. A ceasefire between the US and Iran on June 17 briefly allowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, but the ceasefire broke down on July 8 after renewed attacks by both sides. Iran then announced the closure of the strait and President Trump reimposed a naval blockade and proposed imposing a 20 percent toll on goods transported through the waterway.

After this oil prices increased. According to Reuters, Brent crude jumped more than 9 percent on July 14 alone, reaching levels not seen since mid-June. According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, the volume of supertanker cargo through the strait had already declined by 36 percent before the conflict, and traffic remained well below pre-war levels even during the brief armistice window.

building supply options

Based on a sourcing strategy developed over several months, Reliance moved away from Gulf crude oil. The company resumed purchasing discounted Russian crude in early 2026 after receiving an exemption from US sanctions, through a one-month OFAC license issued in March. India also secured the right to buy crude oil from Venezuela in April, with India importing its highest monthly volume from Venezuela in six years – an estimated 12.51 million barrels, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.

Business Standard reported in April that the company "relied on diversified crude sourcing and operational agility to navigate the volatile energy market" during the March quarter, a strategy analysts expect to continue through the June period.

Outlook remains uncertain

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed once again and the waiver of US sanctions on Iranian oil set to expire on July 17, the supply picture for the September quarter remains dire. As of Thursday, crude oil was trading above $80 a barrel, up more than 21 percent year-to-date. For Reliance, the ability to get barrels outside the Gulf could prove not only beneficial but essential.

Hang Seng falls sharply due to global chip selloff in Asia

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.94% from the previous session on Friday to 24,524, led by a global decline in semiconductor and AI stocks in Asian markets. The fall snapped several days of winning streak and sent the Hang Seng Tech Index down 4.4%, marking the index's sharpest single-session loss in several weeks.

Tech heavyweights are leading the decline

Technology stocks bore the brunt of Friday's selloff, with AI-focused and semiconductor stocks suffering the most losses. SMIC fell nearly 10%, while broader tech giants including Meituan and other platform companies fell sharply. The Hang Seng index fell more than 600 points during the session and then recovered slightly to close at 446 points.

The weakness spread across the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell below 64,000, entering correction territory about 10% from its 12-month high, while Taiwan's market also moved into correction. Mainland Chinese markets declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 3% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 5.4%.

The Wall Street Chip debacle has set the stage

The Asian selloff followed several consecutive days of semiconductor weakness on Wall Street. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index fell 3.5% on Thursday even after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported strong results. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.6% due to losses at memory-chip makers, according to Reuters. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5% during Wednesday's session, with Marvell and Western Digital among the stocks with the biggest declines, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Investors have become cautious about whether spending on large-scale AI infrastructure will generate adequate returns, a concern that has intermittently haunted the sector since early July. Rising geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran over the Strait of Hormuz have heightened the risk-off mood, pushing oil prices higher and strengthening inflation fears.

broader context

Market turnover in Hong Kong reached HK$322.9 billion on Friday, reflecting active participation in selling rather than a lack of liquidity. The decline follows a volatile period in Hong Kong-listed tech stocks, which experienced a 36% decline between the October peak and June low before a partial recovery. Analysts have pointed to hedge fund deleveraging as a key driver of chip stocks.

Reliance Q1 profit beats estimates on O2C surge

Reliance Industries on Friday, July 17 reported first-quarter results for fiscal 2027, in which net profit beat analysts' estimates as the oil-to-chemicals segment delivered its strongest performance in years, offsetting a year-on-year decline due to a one-time gain in the prior-year period.

O2C drives the beat

The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate posted a consolidated net profit of about ₹20,600 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, surpassing the CNBC-TV18 survey estimate of ₹18,628 crore. The headline figure still reflects a year-on-year decline from ₹26,994 crore in Q1 FY26, which was boosted by a one-time gain of ₹8,924 crore from the sale of Reliance's stake in Asian Paints.

The oil-to-chemicals business performed excellently, benefiting from a sharp improvement in Singapore's gross refining margins, which rose from $5.6 per barrel in the March quarter to $21.3 per barrel during the quarter. Brokerage firms had estimated O2C EBITDA growth of around 20% year-on-year, driven by improvements in petrochemical spreads that boosted refining strength. On a recurring basis – surpassing last year's one-off – the company posted record quarterly EBITDA, leading to a series of operational milestones set throughout FY2026, when EBITDA crossed ₹2.07 lakh crore.

Jio is stable, there is a tussle in retail

As Jio Platforms continues its steady expansion, analysts expect digital business EBITDA to grow by about 11% year-on-year due to a 3% improvement in average revenue per user. The telecom arm's results were in line with its trajectory of consistent double-digit earnings growth.

However, Reliance Retail remained in a weak position. Revenue in the segment was expected to decline sequentially, with brokerage firm Jefferies anticipating pressure on margins from the hyperscale business and slower discretionary spending. Still, overall consumer business EBITDA was projected to grow 12% year-over-year.

Record recurring income

The quarterly results extend the pattern of record operating performance at India's most valuable conglomerate. Reliance reported full year FY26 revenue of ₹11.76 lakh crore and net profit of ₹95,754 crore, and the June quarter confirms that the momentum has continued into the new financial year. Shares had risen about 3% in the sessions ahead of the results, with the stock trading around ₹1,300 on the BSE.

Jio's ARPU rises to ₹215.6 as subscriber count crosses 533 mn in Q1

Reliance Industries on Friday reported Q1FY27 results, in which its telecom arm Jio Platforms reported average revenue per user of ₹215.6 for the April-June 2026 period. The figure represents a sequential increase from ₹214.0 recorded in the March quarter, driven by continued 5G adoption and fixed wireless access growth.

Jio's subscriber base grew to 533.3 million during the quarter, adding nearly 9 million users over the 524.4 million reported at the end of Q4 FY26. Brokerage firms had estimated customer additions of between 7 and 9.5 million in the quarter.

5G and digital services boost growth

Jio's 5G subscriber base, which stands at 268 million by March 2026, has been the central driver of ARPU improvement. The company's fixed wireless access service, JioAirFiber, has also contributed to the high realization, becoming the largest FWA player globally with about 7.4 million subscribers by mid-2025.

The ARPU trajectory reflects the broader monetization path that Jio has outlined ahead of its planned initial public offering. According to Medianama, in its draft prospectus filed earlier this year, the company had estimated that India's mobile broadband ARPU could reach ₹326.4 by FY2031.

comprehensive income reference

Reliance Industries' Q1FY27 results, announced after Indian markets closed on July 17, were widely expected to show healthy growth across all business segments. The brokerage had estimated consolidated revenue between ₹3.09 trillion to ₹3.2 trillion, with EBITDA growing around 12 per cent year-on-year. The company's oil-to-chemicals segment benefited from a sharp improvement in refining margins, while the retail division faced persistent margin pressure.

For Jio Platforms specifically, analysts had expected revenue growth of around 14 per cent year-on-year and EBITDA of around ₹20,860 crore, supported by both customer momentum and steady ARPU gains. The performance of the telecom unit remains central to Reliance's valuation narrative as the group prepares for Jio's market debut.

VIX rises due to stoppage of chip sales, US-Iran conflict stirs markets

The VIX hit 18.01 early Friday, above the previous close of 15.67, as investors faced the dual threat of deepening semiconductor losses and the escalating US-Iran military conflict now in its sixth consecutive day of fighting. Nasdaq futures fell in pre-market trading, while S&P 500 futures fell, extending the selloff that started on Wall Street in the previous session, when the PHLX semiconductor index fell 5%.

Asian markets fall

Japan's Nikkei 225 bore the brunt of the global loss, falling 2,694 points - about 4% - to close at 64,141, its lowest in a month. Memory chip maker Kioxia lowered its daily range, while Tokyo Electron and other AI-related stocks fell sharply, as a selloff in semiconductor names that started on Wall Street extended through Asian trading. Singapore's Straits Times Index also opened lower, falling 0.65%. South Korea's Kospi fell more than 6% on Wednesday as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics dragged down the index.

geopolitical rise

The market turmoil coincides with U.S. Central Command's expanded military operation inside Iran. On Thursday, US forces attacked command centers, air defense sites and missile capabilities in several locations, including Bandar Abbas, Iran's largest port city, according to Reuters. Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that the country was fighting an "existential war with the US" and said the June 17 memorandum of understanding had been cancelled. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain in a "crushing response".

semiconductor field under pressure

The chip selloff has wiped off more than $1.3 trillion in market value since the beginning of July, according to Reuters, with Intel, Micron, AMD and Samsung facing continued pressure amid doubts over the sustainability of AI-related capital spending. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported record profit for the fifth consecutive quarter on Thursday, but the results failed to boost sentiment. The Wall Street Journal reported that traders' attention turned from earnings to geopolitical risks, with Brent crude trading around $84.20 a barrel amid fears of further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Morgan Stanley described the semiconductor decline as a "mid-cycle adjustment rather than a peak," while Wall Street's 12-month price forecasts still project a recovery for major chipmakers. But with the fighting between Washington and Tehran showing no signs of abating and Iran declaring peace talks dead, investors are unwilling to test that thesis.

China ends 11-year tax exemption on lithium batteries

China announced on Friday it will impose a consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries from September 1, 2026, ending an 11-year exemption that helped the country grow to dominance in global battery manufacturing. However, the policy does grant temporary exemptions for sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries and fuel cells – a clear sign that Beijing is moving the industry toward next-generation technologies.

phased tax increase

New regulations jointly issued by China's Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs and State Administration of Taxation will impose a 2% consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries, lithium primary batteries, mercury-free primary batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries and vanadium redox flow batteries from September 1. That rate will double to 4% on September 1, 2027 – matching the standard consumption tax rate that has long applied to lead-acid batteries and other conventional battery products.

China first introduced its 4% battery consumption tax in February 2015, but exempted seven categories, including lithium-ion and solar cells, to promote nascent clean energy industries. The latest policy systematically dismantles that system.

Solar cells will follow a different timeline, facing a 2% consumption tax from April 1, 2027, rising to 4% a year later.

Next-gen batteries get a pass

From September 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells and advanced photovoltaic technologies such as perovskite and tandem cells will be exempt from consumption tax. The grace period effectively gives these emerging technologies a cost advantage at a time when Chinese companies including CATL and BYD are investing heavily in solid-state and sodium-ion development.

Extensive cost pressure on battery exports

The consumption tax announcement follows a separate policy change earlier this year, which reduced the VAT export exemption for battery products from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, with full abolition scheduled for January 1, 2027. Together, the measures represent a departure from the subsidy-driven export model that helped Chinese battery makers capture more than three-quarters of global lithium-ion cell production. Industry analysts have estimated that the cumulative effect could increase battery export costs by 15% to 23% during 2026 and 2027.

The policy recalibration comes as China grapples with overcapacity in its battery sector, even as demand growth has slowed.

CXMT's $8.6B IPO triggers China's worst weekly selloff in two years

China's stock markets closed sharply lower on Friday, recording their worst weekly performance in more than two years, as fears of a liquidity drain linked to the $8.6 billion initial public offering of memory chip maker Changxin Memory Technologies unsettled investors and a global rout in technology stocks deepened the pain across Asia.

Mainland markets are faltering under the pressure of IPOs

The Shanghai Composite fell 3.05% to a 10-month low of 3,764, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.4% and ChiNext fell 7.15%, according to Hong Kong broadcaster RTHK. The tech-heavy SSE Star 50 also suffered heavy losses during the week, with the CSI AI Index and the CSI Integrated Circuit Index falling about 6% each on the day, Reuters reported.

At the center of the storm was China's leading DRAM chip maker CXMT, which set an IPO price of 8.66 yuan per share and expects to raise about 57.9 billion yuan before any over-allotment options in Asia's biggest listing by 2026. The company plans to list on the STAR Market on July 27. The retail subscription exceeds the available shares by 212 times, giving almost a lot-winning rate. 0.47%, according to stock exchange filings cited by Reuters. Although the figure appears large, it was notably more muted than the frenzy that has accompanied many recent Chinese IPOs, raising concerns about waning appetite for high-priced tech offerings.

Analysts said investors have begun to shift funds from existing technology holdings to free up capital for CXMT subscriptions, adding to selling pressure across the sector. China's state-backed Shanghai Securities Journal tried to reassure markets, arguing that big IPOs do not change the broader trajectory of equities and system-wide liquidity remains adequate. The message didn't help calm the nerves.

Global tech debacle further increases losses

The selloff was not limited to mainland China. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.8% to 24,562, with its technology sub-index falling 4.4%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell more than 4,100 points – more than 6% – before shedding losses to close 4.03% at 64,141, entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its all-time high set on June 25. Memory chip maker Kioxia Holdings lowered its daily limit in Tokyo.

Nasdaq 100 futures fell sharply Friday morning as the chip-stock selloff continued, with companies including Applied Materials and Dell Technologies hardest hit in premarket trading, the Wall Street Journal reported. Weeks of growing skepticism over whether spending on large-scale AI infrastructure could justify elevated semiconductor valuations was already dampening sentiment.

Conference and geopolitical uneasiness add to frustration

Adding to the uncertainty, the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference opens in Shanghai on Friday, where President Xi Jinping is expected to outline China's AI diplomacy vision. But rather than spurring excitement, the event coincides with widespread skepticism about the pace of returns on global AI investments. Renewed tensions related to the conflict in Iran put further pressure on markets in the region, especially Hong Kong.

Peter Alexander of Z-Ben Advisors warned on CNBC that CXMT's listing has ushered in a "China Shock 3.0" in the memory sector, underscoring how the IPO has become a lightning rod for concerns about China's tech ambitions and the fragility of the rally that lifted the Shanghai Composite to its highest level in a decade earlier this year.

India demands tariff guarantee as US trade deal deadline approaches

With the July 24 deadline approaching – the date on which the temporary 10% US tariff on Indian goods is set to expire – negotiations on an India-US bilateral trade agreement have thrown up new complications. New Delhi is pushing for tariff certainty before concluding any deal, while a newly introduced US Senate bill threatening up to 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil has added another layer of uncertainty for Indian trade officials.

breaking the deadlock

Earlier this month, reports emerged that India had rejected a quick trade deal proposed by Washington, prompting sharp reactions from both sides. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gore slammed the reports on social media as "fake news", writing, "No one has ruled anything out. Both sides had very constructive meetings and reaffirmed their commitment to finalizing a trade deal." Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal reiterated that assessment, dismissing the reports as "completely false, baseless and misleading" and describing his recent meetings with US Trade Representative Jameson Greer as "fantastic".

Yet denials have not resolved the underlying tension. As Reuters reported on July 13, India was unable to reach a consensus with the US in recent talks, with New Delhi demanding better terms. According to The Hindu Businessline, India has persuaded Washington to delay finalizing the interim agreement until the complexities surrounding the US tariff policy are clarified, particularly the outcome of the ongoing Section 301 investigation. Goyal has said that "we cannot implement the US deal until we finalize the framework to achieve that competitive advantage".

Brazil warning and Russia bill

The US decision to impose 25% tariffs on thousands of Brazilian imports under Section 301, announced on July 15 and effective on July 22, has sparked debate in New Delhi. Trade experts quoted by The Hindu BusinessLine argued that Brazil's tariff action underscores the risks of rushing into a deal without safeguards against future unilateral US trade moves. A separate US investigation could increase the tariff burden on Brazil to 37.5%.

Adding to these concerns, on July 14 a bipartisan group of US senators introduced the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, which would authorize tariffs of up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil – a list that currently includes India and China. The bill, backed by the White House, also targets Russian energy infrastructure and financial institutions. While India had committed in its February framework agreement with Washington to end purchases of Russian oil, the prospect of Congress-authorized tariffs and broad presidential waiver authority without any expiration has raised concerns among Indian trade strategists.

the clock is ticking

The stakes are considerable. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement before July 24, India's temporary 10% tariff rate will expire, potentially leaving Indian exporters facing much higher duties. The February framework envisioned the US reducing reciprocal tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, but the deal was built around a tariff arrangement that was later struck down by the US Supreme Court. Analysts argue that India must now seek explicit guarantees that any agreement will protect it from future unilateral actions – a demand that could push the timeline well beyond the imminent deadline.

Eni CEO says oil industry shifting focus to Asia, Latin America

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi told an Italian parliamentary panel on Thursday that energy markets are failing to take into account the scale of geopolitical risks reshaping global supply, as the oil and gas industry redirects capital to Southeast Asia and Latin America in response to the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Permanent risk in the Middle East

Speaking before the committee, Descalzi said that the Middle East would remain a source of increased risk even after hostilities subside. The Gulf region, including Russia and Iran, "will not be able to contribute significantly to energy product supplies for some time," he said, adding, "Even when they return to the market, things will look completely different."

The comments come after months of shipping turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies transit. Iran announced the closure of the strait earlier this year following US-Israeli military strikes, and despite intermittent reopenings, commercial traffic remains well below normal levels. More than 34,000 vessels were diverted in just the first four weeks of the disruption, FreightWaves reports.

Flow of capital towards new frontiers

Descalzi said the Hormuz crisis has drawn the attention of industry and government to alternative supply areas. Southeast Asia, South America and Africa are "promising areas for oil and gas," he said, with the first two expected to attract the largest investment.

In Southeast Asia, Eni and Malaysia's Petronas have launched Syrah, a joint venture consolidating 19 upstream gas assets in Indonesia and Malaysia linked to deepwater developments in the Kutei Basin. In South America, Eni is helping to develop a nearly $30 billion Argentine LNG export complex in Rio Negro province along with Abu Dhabi's XRG.

comprehensive energy scenario

Descalzi's testimony matches warnings from other parties. The World Economic Forum's Energy Transition Index, published in June, found that the global energy transition is "stalled" despite record investment of $3.3 trillion, with geopolitical tensions leading to fragmentation in energy systems. In a separate interview with Il Sole 24 Ore published on July 11, Descalzi said "in the short term, it is possible" that the global energy crisis will worsen as oil reserves decline and competition for supply intensifies.

Europe's continued reliance on imported LNG to fill gas storage ahead of winter remains a central weakness, which Descalzi's parliamentary appearance sought to underline.

Morgan Stanley raises TSMC target after record second-quarter earnings

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to NT$2,988 from NT$2,888 and maintained an overweight rating after the chipmaker reported second-quarter earnings that handily beat expectations on Thursday.

Record quarter boosted by AI demand

According to CNBC, TSMC reported a 77.4% year-on-year jump in net profit for the April-to-June quarter, a record high for the fifth consecutive quarter. Revenue rose 36% from a year earlier to NT$1.27 trillion, while earnings per ADR share came in at $4.31, $0.49 above the consensus estimate of $3.82. The company guided for third-quarter revenue of between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, which means growth of about 37% year-over-year.

Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance from "above 30%" to "slightly above 40%" in US dollar terms and raised capital expenditure plans to $60-64 billion from the $52-56 billion range set in January. TSMC also announced an additional $100 billion investment commitment in Arizona.

Morgan Stanley marks margin headwind

In its note, Morgan Stanley said the increase in capital spending partly reflects equipment price inflation, estimating that TSMC may need to spend an additional $3 billion due to a roughly 5% increase in equipment costs. The bank warned that near-term margins will face pressure from 2nm production ramp-up and the weakening of overseas fabs, with third-quarter gross margins expected to temporarily decline to a range of 65%-67%.

Morgan Stanley suggested that a 70%-80% compound annual growth rate is reasonable for TSMC's AI semiconductor business, up from the company's previous forecast of 55%-60%. The firm also expects TSMC to raise lead-wafer prices by 5-10% in 2027 due to strong demand and its position as ASML's largest EUV customer. TrendForce reported that TSMC is already eyeing 15% price growth on 3nm in the second half of 2026, with 5%-10% growth in 2027.

comprehensive analyzer upgrade

Morgan Stanley's new NT$2,988 target represents about 20 times estimated 2027 earnings. The firm was one of several brokerages to raise targets after the earnings call, with at least one Asian house setting a bull-case target of up to NT$4,200. TSMC shares rose 1.23% on Thursday after the results, taking year-to-date gains to more than 58%.

Sensex rises more than 960 points due to rise in IT shares on the basis of earnings

Shares of India's biggest information technology companies jumped on Friday, tracking a rally in the broader market as investors reacted to better-than-expected quarterly earnings and the announcement of a big outsourcing deal.

Profit increased due to strong quarterly results

Tech Mahindra led the IT rally by rising over 3% after reporting 28.4% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,465 crore in the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Revenue grew 17.7% to nearly Rs 15,712 crore, while new deal wins reached $1.078 billion, up 33% year-on-year. The results exceeded analysts' expectations, with Nomura calling it a "broad-based earnings beat" and predicting the company will outperform large-cap peers in growth during FY27 and FY28.

Infosys rose over 2% to Rs 1,108.50 in early trade, while HCL Technologies rose 3% after announcing an extended seven-year partnership with The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America. Under the deal, HCLTech will acquire Guardian India operations for $10.5 million, transferring around 2,000 employees to accelerate AI-driven modernization of the insurer's technology and operations. Tata Consultancy Services also rose, although Wipro bucked the trend after disappointing results.

mass market advantage

The Nifty IT index rose as much as 1.89% in two consecutive sessions till Friday. BSE Sensex closed 964 points or 1.25% higher at 78,151.45, led by gains in IT majors, while Nifty 50 gained 261 points at 24,334.30.

The gains came despite headwinds including Brent crude prices hovering near $85 a barrel, persistent selling by foreign institutional investors - with FIIs selling equities worth Rs 4,205 crore on Thursday - and the escalating US-Iran conflict. The rupee rose 14 paise to 96.28 against the US dollar during the session.

Outlook hinges on strong earnings

Market participants are now awaiting quarterly results from Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank expected over the weekend, which analysts say will decide the market's next move. Private banking shares rose as much as 2% on Friday ahead of the earnings announcement.

Zepto faces huge valuation cut ahead of IPO

Indian instant-commerce startup Zepto is pursuing its initial public offering at a valuation significantly lower than the $7 billion it raised during its previous private funding round, as investor concerns over cash burn and the company's path to profitability weigh on demand.

According to Bloomberg, which first reported the development on Thursday, foreign investors have indicated interest at a pre-money valuation of about $4.5 billion. Some domestic institutional investors are valuing the company even lower, at $3 billion to $3.5 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Anchor Investors and IPO Size

Zepto aims to raise up to $850 million through the offering, which includes a fresh issue of shares worth about $831 million and an offer for sale by existing investors. The company filed updated draft papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India in June, setting the stage for one of the country's most anticipated listings this year.

According to Moneycontrol, Norges, Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund and Motilal Oswal are expected to cover 40 to 45 percent of Zepto's anchor book. At a post-money valuation of approximately $5.1 billion, the implied price represents a 27 percent decline from the $7 billion valuation Zepto achieved when it raised $450 million from CalPERS and others in October 2025.

Cash burn concerns

The valuation improvement reflects investors' widespread skepticism about the economics of the fast-commerce sector. Zepto, founded by Adit Palicha and Kaivalya Vohra, reported revenue of Rs 9,669 crore for the financial year ending March 2025 – a rise of 129 per cent year-on-year – but also a net loss of Rs 3,367 crore. The company operates in a highly competitive market with Eternal-owned Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, Flipkart Minutes and Amazon Now.

The IPO is being managed by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Axis Capital, JM Financial and IIFL Securities. Zepto continues to hold discussions with potential investors as it finalizes pricing ahead of a potential listing in July.

RBI arm floats global bids for polymer banknote material

India on Friday moved a step closer to introducing polymer currency as Reserve Bank of India's wholly-owned note-printing subsidiary Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Pvt Ltd (BRBNMPL) issued a global expression of interest to seek manufacturers capable of supplying special plastic sheets for printing Indian bank notes.

What does EOI want?

The tender, numbered EOI/04/CO/2026-27 and published on July 17 with a bid submission deadline of August 18, calls for an indicative quantity of 68,000 reams of BOPP (Biaxially Oriented Polypropylene) based opacified polymer substrate – 34,000 reams for the two denominations, each ream comprising 500 sheets. Are. The material should include security features including drawings, metallic marks, magnetic camouflage thread, shadow image and a clear window with iridescent pattern suitable for printing in both BRBNMPL and Security Printing and Minting Corporation of India Limited presses.

Sources familiar with the matter say the polymer notes are likely to start with lower denominations of Rs 10 and Rs 20, which are the most in circulation and wear out the fastest.

Strict security and eligibility conditions

The EOI includes national-security stipulations: bidders must ensure that their operations in China or Pakistan are firewalled from any business linked to India, must not source raw materials from either country, and must not include personnel who have worked in those countries in any capacity. Entities from countries sharing land borders with India must be registered with the Registration Committee of the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade.

Qualified bidders must have at least three years of experience in supplying polymer substrate with security features to a central bank or banknote-printing organization and must offer a minimum of 20,400 reams – 30 percent of the indicative quantity. Applicants must also submit at least 10 sample polymer sheets certified free of animal fat or DNA content.

no final decision yet

BRBNMPL termed this exercise as preliminary and said that it should not be considered as a decision to introduce polymer banknotes. After the June 5 monetary policy announcement, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the proposal is "under consideration" and the central bank is assessing both the advantages and challenges before taking a final decision. If field trials prove successful, larger purchases in multiple denominations are expected in subsequent tenders, in which polymer and paper currency will co-exist rather than replace each other.

Gemini 3.5 Pro delay spurs selloff in global AI stocks

Alphabet's Google is months behind in delivering its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro AI model, a Bloomberg News report said Wednesday unsettled investors, leading to a widespread selloff in chip and AI stocks that dragged down markets around the world.

delay

Google CEO Sundar Pichai said during the company's I/O developer conference in May that the Gemini 3.5 Pro would ship next month. That deadline came and went, and as of July 16, the model still hasn't reached general availability. Bloomberg reported Thursday that the company is working to improve the model's capabilities, particularly in coding, where it has fallen short of internal performance goals. A Google spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company is "currently testing 3.5 Pro with partners", but did not name a new release date.

Alphabet shares fell about 4.6% on July 16, according to trading data, as the report revived investor concerns about whether returns from massive AI infrastructure spending would be fast enough to justify the lofty valuation.

broad market results

Gemini's delay added to the already selling pressure in chip stocks. TSMC reported record second-quarter results the same day, but raised its 2026 capital spending guidance to $60 billion-$64 billion, up from a prior forecast of $52 billion-$56 billion. While TSMC framed the increase as a response to "strong structural demand" including the "new emerging agentic AI market", investors interpreted the higher spending as a sign that returns remain years off.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite sank 1.5%, and memory and chip stocks bore the brunt of the losses. Western Digital and SanDisk declined with losses of more than 7%, while Micron lost 4.5% and Intel lost 2.4%. In Asia, Seoul's Kospi fell 6.4%, SK Hynix lost 11.5% and Samsung Electronics lost 8.8%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8%.

a familiar pattern

The selloff echoed a pattern that has been repeated throughout 2026: There have been periodic doubts over whether AI spending, now reaching hundreds of billions of dollars annually at the largest technology companies, will translate into proportionate revenue gains. Alphabet itself guided for $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026 capital spending during its fourth-quarter earnings call in February, well above analysts' expectations at the time. The combination of that spending commitment and the delayed flagship model intensified the question investors were asking – when will the payoff come.

MakeMyTrip files for $1B+ IPO of India subsidiary

MakeMyTrip on Thursday announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, MakeMyTrip (India) Limited, has confidentially submitted a pre-filed draft red herring prospectus with Indian regulators and stock exchanges for a proposed initial public offering and listing on main boards in Mumbai.

The offer will involve the sale of shares by MakeMyTrip and its Singapore-based subsidiary Ibibo Group Holdings, while MMT India will remain a subsidiary of the parent company post-listing. The Nasdaq-listed travel platform is targeting an IPO worth more than $1 billion, which would make it one of the biggest internet listings in India in recent years.

Secret route gains traction

MakeMyTrip is using SEBI's confidential pre-filing route, which allows it to pursue regulatory review without immediately publishing full business and financial disclosures. Under this mechanism, the issuer privately submits its DRHP to SEBI and is required to make a public announcement confirming the filing within two working days, but key details such as issue size, valuation and price band are disclosed at a later stage.

The popularity of this route has grown – in the first five months of 2026, 15 out of 66 IPO filings used the confidential path, up from about 11 percent of filings in 2025.

According to Moneycontrol, investment banks Kotak Mahindra Capital, Axis Capital, JP Morgan India and Morgan Stanley India have been appointed as book-running lead managers to the proposed issue.

A traveling veteran comes home

The company first flagged its India listing plans in a May 2026 SEC filing, when it revealed the restructuring of its bus-booking platform under its Indian unit. MakeMyTrip recorded record gross bookings of $10.4 billion for fiscal year 2026, a growth of 10.4 percent year-on-year in constant currency terms, with revenues for the full year exceeding $1 billion.

The IPO is expected to be structured as a mass offer for sale, allowing existing shareholders to dilute their stake rather than raising new capital for the company. People familiar with the matter told Moneycontrol that discussions are ongoing on the size and timing of the final issue.

Morgan Stanley warns that AI's biggest hurdle is now memory, not computation

The AI ​​industry's next disruption isn't about processing speed – it's about memory. Morgan Stanley published a comprehensive report this week arguing that the central barrier in artificial intelligence is shifting from the “compute wall” to the “memory wall,” a shift the company says will reshape the entire AI infrastructure investment landscape over the next half decade.

widening gap

The bank's analysis, led by Shawn Kim, head of Morgan Stanley's Europe and Asia technology team, lays out the mismatch in stark terms. DDR5 single-channel bandwidth is expected to increase from 44.8 GB/s in 2024 to just 51.2 GB/s in 2026 – an increase of approximately 14% in two years. In the same window, global AI estimates token generation will increase from approximately 10 trillion tokens per month to 3,200 trillion, a more than 320-fold increase. The result is an increasingly widening gap between what the processor can handle and what the memory system can provide.

That imbalance is already visible in costs. Storage-related components now account for 73% of CPU server bill-of-materials expenses, and prices per gigabyte of DRAM have reached their highest levels in nearly 30 years. According to TrendForce, traditional DRAM contract prices increased by more than 90% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, while Gartner estimates that annual DRAM prices will increase by 125% this year.

A New Investment Frontier

Morgan Stanley estimates that cloud storage spending will reach $418 billion by 2030, with the share of memory in cloud providers' capital expenditures increasing from 12% in 2023 to 40% by 2027. The total addressable market for innovative memory technologies, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), could reach $276 billion by 2030.

The firm has identified six areas of innovation that it expects to drive the next wave of spending on AI infrastructure: advanced process nodes, memory architecture redesign, advanced packaging, peripheral interconnect chips like CXL, processing-in-memory and new materials. In a June podcast, Kim said memory prices had increased more than sixfold over the past year, describing the situation as "chipflation" – when memory chips stop being cheap and become harder to find.

Ripple effects beyond data centers

Supply shortages are already rife in consumer electronics. Morgan Stanley estimates that PC memory demand could decline by 15% in 2027, equivalent to about 58 million units, while smartphones could see a 12% decline, affecting about 134 million devices. Reuters reported in June that makers of devices ranging from smartphones to PCs were being forced to choose between raising prices and accepting lower margins.

The firm's favorite investment plays include semiconductor equipment makers like ASML, as well as Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix and SanDisk. As Kim said: "GPUs determine how fast the AI ​​runs, while memory determines how far the AI ​​can go."

Air China orders 55 Airbus jets in $12.4 billion deal

Air China and its subsidiary Shenzhen Airlines have ordered 55 Airbus planes with a combined list price of $12.4 billion, according to a filing with the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Friday.

The deal includes 15 A350-900 widebody jets for Air China and 40 A320neo family narrowbody aircraft for Shenzhen Airlines, Bloomberg reports. The order strengthens Airbus' dominant position in the Chinese market as the European aircraft maker continues to win big contracts from the country's state-owned carriers.

Wave of Chinese airline orders

The purchase is the latest in a series of large-scale fleet commitments to Airbus by Chinese airlines over the past year. In late December 2025, Air China signed a separate agreement to purchase 60 A320neo aircraft worth approximately $9.5 billion, with delivery scheduled between 2028 and 2032. In April 2026, China Southern Airlines and its subsidiary Xiamen Airlines ordered 137 A320neo family jets for $21.4 billion. China Eastern Airlines signed a deal for 101 planes in March.

Collectively, Chinese carriers have committed to more than 350 Airbus single-aisle aircraft in recent months, with a combined catalog value of close to $55 billion.

Shenzhen Airlines fleet expansion

Shenzhen Airlines is undergoing a comprehensive transformation supported by Air China. The subsidiary recently took delivery of its first A350-900 in late June, marking its entry into widebody operations. Air China is contributing five A350-900s to Shenzhen Airlines as part of a 16 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) capital increase aimed at reducing the subsidiary's debt burden and supporting fleet renewal.

The 40 additional A320neo narrowbody jets ordered on Friday will further expand Shenzhen Airlines' capacity as it builds Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport as a hub serving the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Airbus' China Foothold

These orders reflect Beijing's continued reliance on Airbus for fleet growth, even as discussions continue about the possible return of Boeing 737 Max orders to Chinese airlines. Airbus operates a final assembly line in Tianjin for A320 family aircraft, giving it a manufacturing presence that has helped strengthen commercial ties with Chinese carriers for more than a decade.

Euro falls as demand for dollar increases due to Iran conflict, ECB increases bets

The euro fell against the US dollar on Friday, the sixth day of military exchanges between the United States and Iran, which continued safe-haven demand for the greenback, while rising energy prices kept up expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again in September.

Dollar strength and euro pressure

The EUR/USD pair slipped below 1.145 in early trading on Friday, extending losses from the previous session when it fell 0.19% to 1.1442, according to market data. The US dollar has benefited from safe-haven investment flows as conflict escalated between Washington and Tehran following the breakdown of an interim ceasefire on July 8.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the dollar strengthened due to US-Iran tensions and Brent crude was trading near a one-month high. Oil prices have surged more than 6% in the past month, with WTI crude climbing to nearly $80 a barrel as the US reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the two sides launched attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.

ECB September hike stakes increased

A Reuters poll published on Wednesday found that 70% of economists – 52 out of 74 surveyed – now expect the ECB to raise rates again in September, up from 60% in last month's survey. It is widely expected that the central bank will keep its deposit rate at 2.25% at its July 23 meeting before giving its second hike to 2026.

The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points in June, its first increase since 2023, citing inflationary pressure from the Middle East conflict. Staff projections now project eurozone inflation to average 3.0% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 2.6%. A renewed surge in oil prices following the resumption of hostilities has strengthened the case for further tightening.

Gold falls despite geopolitical risks

Gold prices declined modestly on Friday, falling 0.11% to about $3,982 an ounce, as expectations of rising Treasury yields and tighter monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic outweighed the metal's traditional safe-haven appeal. Non-yielding assets have been under pressure in recent weeks, posting their biggest quarterly decline since 2013 due to expectations of a rate hike in the second quarter.

Market pricing currently suggests there is about a 51% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, down from 67% last week, when soft US inflation data complicated the picture. Tension continues to dominate trading across asset classes amid easing pressure on domestic prices and the threat of a resurgence of oil-led inflation.

Chinese AI startup Moonshot's KM K3 triggers global chip stock selloff

The release of Moonshot AI's KMK3 model on July 16 stunned global semiconductor markets on Thursday, as investors drew immediate parallels with last year's DeepSeq moment and questioned whether cheaper Chinese AI models could dampen demand for the most advanced chips powering the artificial intelligence boom.

A "KM Moment" created a stir in the market

Bloomberg's Asian semiconductor index fell more than 6% as buzz about the model's launch echoed on the trading floor, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2% on concerns that increasingly capable Chinese models could curb demand for high-end AI chips. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index closed down 4.29% on the day at 11,867.50, sending the index into bear market territory with a 16% decline from its recent closing high.

Moonshot's Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter mix-expert model with a million-token reference window, was immediately dubbed a new "Kimi moment" by investors. The company prices its API at $3 per million input tokens and $15 per output – about half the cost of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and less than a third of Anthropic's Cloud Fable 5. Artificial analysis ranked the K3 ahead of Anthropic's Opus 4.8 on some Frontier benchmarks, making it the first Chinese open-weight model to reach that milestone.

Despite strong earnings, chip stocks are under siege

The already fragile market was hit hard by the selling. TSMC on Thursday reported a 77% jump in second-quarter profit and raised its 2026 capital spending budget from $8 billion to $62 billion at the midpoint, yet its U.S.-listed shares still fell 2.1%. The S&P 500 lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6%, as chip weakness weighed on an otherwise solid earnings report.

The pressure came after IBM warned earlier in the week that businesses were favoring data-center infrastructure over software. IBM shares fell 25% on Tuesday after it reported second-quarter revenue that fell short of estimates — its worst day on record.

echoes of deepseek

The market reaction was echoed in January 2025, when DeepSeek's low-cost AI model knocked $589 billion off Nvidia's market capitalization in one day. The central fear, then, is that cheaper Chinese models could undermine the thesis that hyperscale AI infrastructure spending will sustain chip demand indefinitely. MarketWatch reported that semiconductor stocks were "on the brink of a bear market" as of July 16, while the SOX index had already fallen 16% from its June peak before the latest decline on the Kimi K3 news.

Moonshot has promised to release full model weights by July 27, a move that could increase competitive pressure if independent evaluations confirm the company's performance claims.

Kioxia has lost half its value in a month as chip stocks fall globally.

Japanese memory chip maker Kioxia Holdings, which briefly became the country's most valuable listed company in June, saw its shares tumble 16% on Thursday, wiping off nearly half of its market capitalization in less than a month.

The stock closed at ¥52,110 on Friday after falling from a 52-week high of ¥112,700 on June 22, a decline that has wiped out about ¥29.5 trillion ($182 billion) in market value. Kioxia, which overtook Toyota to become Japan's biggest company by market cap in mid-June with a valuation of more than 50 trillion yen, has now fallen to fourth place among the country's most valuable companies.

A comprehensive semiconductor route

The selloff is not limited to Kioxia. The Nikkei 225 fell 2,694 points to close at 64,141 in Thursday's session – the fifth-biggest single-day decline on record. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3% in a second straight day of losses, even as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported a 77% earnings rise that failed to satisfy investors who had priced in sustained AI-driven gains.

In Japan, other chip-related stocks including Tokyo Electron, Ibiden and Sumco fell between 8% and 10%. South Korea's Kospi fell more than 6% at the start of the week, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics slipping between 8% and 11%.

warning signs were up

Analysts point to several factors behind Kioxia's dramatic turnaround. The company's stock surged more than 800% in 2026 before the correction began, driven by AI-related insatiable demand for NAND flash memory. But Bain Capital's exit from its stake entirely – confirmed by managing partner David Gross on July 8 – signaled that one of the company's early backers saw the cycle at its peak. Bain most recently owned about 44% of Kioxia through December 2025 and systematically liquidated its position over six months, making an estimated $15 billion profit.

Meanwhile, China's Yangtze Memory Technologies is building three new factories that will more than double its capacity by the end of 2027, raising concerns about a potential NAND oversupply. YMTC is targeting a 15% global NAND shipment share in 2026, close to SK Hynix's scale.

The inherent bullish-bearish cyclicality of the memory chip sector forces investors to question whether the AI-driven upcycle has peaked — or whether the selloff is simply the kind of violent correction that speculative rallies inevitably generate.

BP, ConocoPhillips announce billions of investments in Iraq

ConocoPhillips and BP are announcing billions of dollars in new investments in Iraq's energy sector on Friday as part of a broader effort by Washington to strengthen Baghdad's oil industry and reduce the region's dependence on energy routes vulnerable to Iranian disruption.

The announcements were made at the US-Iraq high-level trade summit in Washington, where Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is meeting senior US officials and executives from major energy companies. Organizers plan to unveil about $60 billion in commercial agreements and memorandums of understanding between U.S. companies and the Iraqi government, according to people familiar with the event.

ConocoPhillips enters Kirkuk partnership

ConocoPhillips has agreed to acquire a 42% stake in BP's Kirkuk oil unit, joining BP as a partner in the redevelopment of four producing oil fields in Iraq's northern Kirkuk region. As Bloomberg News reported in February, BP was actively seeking a partner as early as 2026 to boost production and share costs in the Kirkuk fields, one of the oldest producing fields in the Middle East.

The Kirkuk project covers the Baba and Awana domes of the Kirkuk oil field, as well as three adjacent fields – Bai Hasan, Jambour and Khabbaz – which are operated by Iraq's North Oil Company. BP received final Iraqi government ratification of its contract in March 2025, targeting more than 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the initial phase and a broader resource opportunity of up to 20 billion barrels.

A diplomatic and commercial pivot

Energy deals are at the center of President Trump's effort to reframe US-Iraq relations around commerce rather than conflict. Al-Zaidi, a businessman-turned-politician, met Trump at the White House earlier this week, with the president calling him "a great leader" and saying bilateral relations were moving from "not so good" to "excellent."

Energy commitments from BP, ConocoPhillips and other companies are expected to reach billions and potentially tens of billions of dollars, although full details of individual projects have not yet been disclosed ahead of the summit. Additional agreements are expected in digital infrastructure, healthcare and agriculture as Iraq looks to diversify its economy beyond oil.

Under BP's original contract, the project aims to increase crude oil production capacity at four Kirkuk fields to a peak of 420,000 barrels per day, as well as invest in associated gas production and build a 400 MW power plant.

EPFO launches universal PF scheme for gig, self-employed workers

India's Employees' Provident Fund Organization is developing a framework to expand retirement savings coverage to millions of self-employed individuals, gig workers and unorganized sector workers who are currently excluded from the formal social security system, according to a report first published by The Times of India.

The proposed universal provident fund scheme will allow customers to make voluntary contributions on a flexible basis – daily, monthly or annually – accommodating the typical irregular income patterns of freelancers, delivery partners, cab drivers and other gig economy workers.

Tax benefits and structure

Under the proposed model, annual contributions up to ₹2.5 lakh will get full tax exemption, with interest earned also remaining tax-free – mirroring the benefits available to existing EPF subscribers. Unlike the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maandhan Yojana, where the central government contributes half of the pension amount, the new scheme will be completely self-funded through subscriber contributions.

The withdrawal phase represents a departure from the current system. Subscribers may be allowed to retain their corpus with EPFO ​​even after retirement and choose a systematic withdrawal plan, giving them the flexibility to front-load or back-end payment. EPFO officials have studied international models, including Singapore's system, to inform the design of the framework.

Technology and next steps

Although the government has not formally approved the proposal, EPFO ​​has already issued a tender to develop the IT infrastructure required to support the scheme. The initiative aligns with the implementation of India's new labor code under the Social Security Code, 2020, which came into force in November 2025 and formally defines gig workers and platform workers for the first time.

India's gig workforce is set to grow from 7.7 million in FY 2020-21 to 12 million in FY 2025, and the labor ministry is separately considering a multi-manager model for a comprehensive social security scheme, where aggregators will contribute 1-2 per cent of annual turnover to the welfare fund. Officials say several international models are still being examined before a final outline is drawn up, and the proposal needs further approval before implementation.

Dollar headed for weekly decline as inflation data curbs rate-hike bets

The US dollar held steady at a one-month low on Thursday as escalating military hostilities between the United States and Iran lifted oil prices, giving the greenback a level of safe-haven support, although soft inflation data dented rate-hike expectations.

Soft inflation meets geopolitical risks

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, touched nearly 100.48 on Thursday after touching its weakest level since June 18, according to Reuters. The greenback had fallen 0.8% in the past two sessions after unexpectedly soft consumer and producer price data rejected an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its July 28-29 meeting.

Based on CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike in July dropped to about 11% from 45% at the start of the week. Markets still see about equal chances of at least a 25 basis-point increase by September.

The EUR/USD pair traded around 1.1445 on Friday, poised for modest weekly gains as the euro held steady near a one-month high, according to Reuters. Sterling gained its third consecutive weekly gain to $1.3476.

Oil remains near one-month high

Dollar's decline eased as US-Iran hostilities escalate. Firing between the two countries continued throughout the week, which Reuters described as having "largely resolved last month's ceasefire". US forces carried out strikes on Iranian targets on Thursday for a sixth consecutive night, while Iran warned it would resist any attempts to break its hold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures traded near $85 a barrel, the highest in nearly a month, as supply concerns persisted despite limited immediate disruption to physical oil flows. According to Fortune, oil tankers have become reluctant to transit the strait, halting shipments, while Iraqi crude loadings have more than doubled since early July, partially offsetting the pressure.

Outlook hinges on fragile ceasefire

Oxford Economics rated the prospects for a durable US-Iran deal at 50-50 in a briefing published earlier this month, effectively describing peace as a "coin flip". The consultancy's baseline forecast assumes Brent crude will stabilize around $73 a barrel by the end of the third quarter, provided the hostilities do not escalate further.

Analysts at Capital Economics commented more hawkish on Fed policy, writing that "it remains a matter of when the Fed will raise interest rates," pointing to a surge in AI investment and a pickup in consumer demand as forces to keep core inflation above target. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank may need to raise funds "in the near term" if core inflation remains elevated.

Semiconductor index nears bear market as chip selloff deepens

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell below the closely watched 12,000 level on Thursday, closing at about 11,841 — a decline of about 4.5% on the day — as the chip selloff that has gripped markets for several weeks prompted analysts to warn it could turn into a full-blown bear market.

The index is now about 19% below its record closing high set on June 22, according to MarketWatch, which identified a break at or below 11,707.78 as the threshold that would officially mark a 20% decline from the peak – the standard definition of a bear market. On Friday morning, Bloomberg reported that US stock futures were headed for further decline, with the SOX "on the cusp of a bear market and poised to extend Thursday's losses."

One rotation away from AI winners

The selloff marks a sharp reversal for chip shares, which had more than doubled between late March and mid-June due to a surge in AI-related demand. Jared Blickrey of Yahoo Finance noted that many of the index's 30 components have fallen 25–30% over the past 10 trading days, describing the price action as a "head and shoulders top" that could signal further decline if buyers fail to reclaim the $12,000 level.

SK Hynix, which launched its American depositary receipts on Nasdaq on July 10, has been a flashpoint for the sell-off. After rising 13% on the first day, ADR fell 9.6% in the next session and continued to decline, while shares in Seoul fell a record 15% in one day. Memory chip makers more broadly are bearing the brunt of sales, with the Roundhill Memory ETF already in bear market territory, data from Yahoo Finance shows.

mechanics of fall

Analysts have pointed to several forces that are fueling an otherwise orderly profit-taking phenomenon. Reuters reported that hedge funds sold chip stocks for the fourth consecutive week in July. The proliferation of leveraged ETFs tied to individual semiconductor names – particularly in South Korea, where assets of retail-driven leveraged funds have reached nearly $9 billion – has created a mechanical feedback loop in which falling prices force sales to rebalance.

The Investing.com analysis said the semiconductor trade is "so popular and so overleveraged that when sentiment changes even slightly, forced selling takes over," making common pullbacks seem far more dangerous than fundamentals.

what comes next

Markets are now waiting for the next round of big tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon to clarify whether AI capex growth will be sustained. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 1.9% in early premarket trading Friday, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.9%, with Nvidia at the bottom of the Magnificent Seven.

"If we close below 12,000 today and then we come back strongly higher on Friday or Monday, that would be a false breakdown," Yahoo Finance's Blikre said Thursday. “But right now it's running a little ahead of the business.”

Gold near $4,000 after falling 28% since January peak

Gold traded around the $4,000 an ounce level on Thursday, July 16, capping a catastrophic decline that has wiped off nearly 28% of the metal's value since peaking near $5,595 in late January. The decline is one of the sharpest reversals in recent commodity history, driven by an hawkish Federal Reserve, a strong dollar and persistent outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

Rate Fears and a Flexible Dollar

The metal broke below the $4,000 threshold for the first time in late June, a level that had not been touched since November 2025. Since then it has been struggling to regain that mark. The catalyst remains the Federal Reserve's pivot under Chairman Kevin Wersch, whose first meeting in June saw nine of nineteen FOMC officials forecast at least one rate hike before the end of the year. The Fed kept its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at that meeting, but tightening has continued to be priced in on futures markets, with CME FedWatch data as of mid-May already showing a 60% chance of a hike by January 2027.

Rising real yields have reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. ING analysts cut their third-quarter gold forecast to $4,300 from a prior call of $4,850, while Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target to $4,900 from $5,400. Deutsche Bank cut its fourth-quarter outlook to $4,800 from $6,000.

ETF outflows and geopolitical crosscurrents

Investors' capital is flowing out of gold funds at a constant pace. According to the World Gold Council, outflows from gold-backed ETFs globally were recorded at $8.9 billion in June alone, with North American products contributing $5.5 billion of the total. The world's largest gold fund, SPDR Gold Shares ETF, has seen outflows of nearly $15 billion since March 1.

Geopolitical tensions have led to little support. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 20, citing Israeli actions in Lebanon, although the US military denied the claim and said the waterway remained accessible. By mid-July, tanker traffic through the strait had slowed to a two-month low amid renewed US-Iran attacks, according to Reuters.

where does the gold go from here

Despite the decline, some analysts argue that gold's structural case remains intact. Central bank buying continues, and an analyst at the Singapore-based bank noted support just below $3,900. But with speculative capital chasing AI-driven equity returns and the Fed maintaining a dovish stance, the near-term outlook is tilted to the downside. As one comment on the gold market said: "The depreciation trade is not over. It is on sale."

Chip selloff and oil surge send emerging markets stocks lower, extending weekly losses

Emerging market shares fell for a second straight day on Friday, led by a deep slide in semiconductor stocks in Asian markets, while escalating US-Iran hostilities lifted crude prices and clouded the monetary policy outlook for developing economies.

Chip Rout Hammers Asia

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index extended its decline on Friday, with the gauge heading for a weekly loss after chipmaker shares that have powered this year's rally came under heavy selling pressure. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell about 4% to 5%, while Taiwan's benchmark fell more than 4%, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, which fell sharply despite reporting strong second-quarter earnings earlier in the week.

The selloff gathered pace as investors rushed to exit stocks whose valuations had soared after a strong rally in the first half. MSCI's Emerging Markets Technology sub-index was up more than 90% in the first six months of 2026, making the sector vulnerable to a correction. Nasdaq 100 futures fell further on Friday, extending losses from the previous session.

Reuters reported that investors moved out of semiconductor plays and into banking stocks after strong earnings from major U.S. lenders, leaving Asia - particularly because of its heavy exposure to chips - on the downside.

oil pressure increases

Rising crude oil prices have added to the troubles for emerging markets. Brent crude was on track for its sharpest weekly gain in three months as US-Iran hostilities intensified. The United States reimposed a naval blockade of Iran earlier in the week and launched new attacks on Iranian military installations, raising fears of continued disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The energy surge has complicated the outlook for EM central banks, many of which had expected to ease monetary policy later this year. In May Barclays dropped its forecast for any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, citing persistently high energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. With US rates remaining high and oil prices expected to rise, rate cuts in developing economies may be further delayed.

Context

Despite weekly fluctuations, emerging market stocks remain bullish for 2026. The MSCI EM index gained nearly 24% in the first half of the year, well ahead of the S&P 500. Analysts attributed the outperformance to strong earnings growth at Asian technology firms and renewed inflows into developing market debt. The current correction tests whether that rally can withstand a sustained period of higher energy costs and tighter global financial conditions.

Gold headed for biggest weekly loss in six as rates hike likely due to US-Iran conflict

Gold was on track for its biggest weekly decline in six weeks on Friday as oil prices lifted as escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran reignited inflation concerns and bolstered expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain high for longer.

Spot gold fell to its lowest since July 1 and the metal has fallen more than 3% in the week to Friday, according to Reuters. This decline is the biggest weekly decline since the week ending June 1.

Oil boom overshadows soft inflation data

The week's losses came despite a brief respite on Tuesday, when softer-than-expected US inflation data for June pushed gold prices up more than 2% in a single session. The consumer price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in June, down from 4.2% in May, while the core CPI was flat on a monthly basis.

That rally soon faded as traders focused again on the effects of rising energy costs. Oil prices rose nearly 12% during the week due to escalating clashes around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude hit a one-month high above $86 a barrel on Tuesday after the United States reimposed a naval blockade of Iran and bombed military targets off its coast for the third consecutive day, according to Reuters and CNBC. Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked tankers passing through the strait, and the UAE's state oil company ADNOC said two of its ships were attacked, killing one sailor.

The crisis is linked to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire. President Donald Trump announced at the NATO summit in Ankara that the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran in June is "dead" and called the talks a "waste of time," The Hill reports. The Treasury Department also revoked a 60-day sanctions waiver on Iranian oil, halting authorized transactions through July 17.

Rate hike bets hinge on non-yielding metal

Higher energy prices, fueling inflation, have strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which is unfavorable for gold, leaving it with nothing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market sees a roughly 68% chance of a rate hike in September by midweek, up from 62% a day earlier. The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its June meeting, with the next decision due on July 29.

"Gold will remain under pressure in the coming sessions, with the potential to rise to new 2026 lows against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and bets on a Fed rate hike," said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. Silver, platinum and palladium were also headed for weekly losses.

Bitcoin falls below $63,000 as Iran attack and Fed intransigence roil markets

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Friday as the sixth consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran deepened a selloff in risk assets, pressured by a dovish call from the chair of the regional Federal Reserve and a sharp decline in technology stocks.

The leading cryptocurrency slipped to around $62,900 in Asian trading hours on Friday, according to CoinDesk, extending a decline of about 1.4% from $65,000 on Thursday. The fall wiped out gains made earlier in the week, when Bitcoin rose above $65,000 for the first time in three weeks after weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

geopolitical shock deepens

US Central Command confirmed late Wednesday that it had completed its latest wave of strikes against Iran, hitting dozens of military targets including coastal surveillance sites, air defense installations and maritime capabilities along Iran's southern coastline. The operation was the sixth straight night of US military action against Iran, aimed at reducing Tehran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US allies across the Gulf, striking targets in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, according to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had already fallen nearly 52% between July 10 and July 12 compared to the previous week, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler.

Asian equity markets also withered along with crypto. Japan's Nikkei 225 traded nearly 3% lower at its lowest level in more than a month, while Nasdaq-linked futures fell 0.8% after Wall Street's tech-heavy index fell more than 1.6% on Thursday.

Fed Hawk adds pressure

Dallas Federal Reserve President Laurie Logan on Thursday became the first policymaker under Chairman Kevin Worsh to publicly advocate for a rate hike, according to Investing.com. “Inflation has been too high for too long, and doesn't appear to be on track to get back to 2%,” Logan said in prepared remarks, potentially dissenting at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting.

The comments came just days after a Reuters report showed traders had cut the chances of a rate hike in July to about 10% after June's soft CPI data. The market still sees about a 60% chance of prices rising at the September meeting.

Liquidations and Altcoin Losses

According to CoinGlass data, more than $350 million worth of cryptocurrency positions were wiped out in the last 24 hours, affecting more than 80,000 traders. Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all declined along with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has traded in a range of $59,000 to $66,000 for more than a month, leaving its record price above $126,000 set for October 2025 by about half. The next catalyst for direction may come at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where Chair Warsh will navigate amid declining inflation data and persistent geopolitical risks to oil supplies and global trade.

Sheen clears Hong Kong listing committee for IPO

Shein has won approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Committee for its initial public offering, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Friday, bringing the fast-fashion retailer one step closer to its long-awaited market debut.

The hearing, held on Thursday, July 16, required Sheen executives to answer questions about the company's operations and finances. Now that the final procedural gates have been cleared, the company can proceed with investor roadshows and book-building.

market road

Shein aims to publish its first public listing filing the week of July 27 and could launch an IPO in late August, though the timetable has not been finalized and could change depending on market conditions. The company has started arranging marketing meetings with investors.

The retailer is seeking a valuation of $40 billion to $50 billion, about half the $100 billion it raised during a 2022 funding round when it first attempted a New York listing. According to Bloomberg report, this offering could raise between $2 billion and $3 billion.

Thursday's hearing followed approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 10, which approved Shein's issuance of 341.6 million H shares and gave it 12 months to complete the listing. The CSRC's approval cleared the biggest regulatory hurdle after previous attempts to list in New York and London stalled — the New York plan ran into geopolitical hurdles, while the London effort never secured Beijing's sign-off.

EU tariffs bleak the outlook

Even as listings progress, new European charges on low-value e-commerce parcels are weighing on growth prospects. Under rules that came into force this month, duty-free parcels worth less than €150 will now be charged €3 per customs code in the EU. Levi strikes at the heart of Shein's ultra-low-cost cross-border model.

Reuters reported that Shein expects global revenues of more than $40 billion and net profit of about $2 billion in 2025, but growth is expected to be weak this year due to EU charges. The headwinds are likely to give investors pause during the roadshow and test their appetite for one of Hong Kong's biggest IPOs in years.

RBI Governor names West Asia conflict, weak monsoon as top economic risks

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday identified the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a below-normal monsoon season as the primary threats to India's economic outlook, even as he reaffirmed that the country's fundamentals remain strong. In an exclusive interview with Doordarshan, Malhotra said inflation risks remain elevated due to rising oil prices and the possibility of reduced food supplies due to a weak monsoon.

The comments come as government data showed India's retail inflation breached the RBI's 4% medium-term target for the first time in 17 months, rising to 4.38% year-on-year in June from 3.93% in May. Food inflation rose to 5.32%, partly due to weak monsoon rainfall, while transportation costs rose as state-owned fuel retailers raised prices several times during May.

Monsoon and energy pressure increased

India's southwest monsoon has been well below average this year, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting seasonal rainfall at only 90% of the long-term average – which would be the driest season in 11 years. By the end of June, monsoon rainfall was about 43% below normal, prompting the government to prepare contingency plans for more than 300 districts at risk of low rainfall. A 50% reduction was recorded in central India, with the reduction attributed to strong El Nino conditions.

Meanwhile, as energy costs continue to rise due to the US-Iran war, analysts have warned of a second-round impact on Indian consumer prices. Citing persistent food price pressures, higher energy costs and geopolitical disruptions, the RBI in June raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 5.1% from 4.6%.

Crisis looms over rate decision

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, which had earlier kept the repo rate steady at 5.25% in its June meeting after a cumulative cut of 125 basis points, is scheduled to meet on August 3-5 to review the interest rates. Reuters reported that the inflation breach has set the stage for a potential rate hike, with some economists forecasting a rise of 25-50 basis points in the current fiscal year.

Technology Incentives for Banks

Separately, Malhotra this week urged Indian banks to adopt artificial intelligence and advanced digital tools to reduce costs, improve efficiency and expand financial services while maintaining cybersecurity safeguards. The RBI said in a statement that the Governor encouraged banks to use AI to enhance customer experience while ensuring strong internal controls against fraud and data misuse.

Byju's creditors approve Akash settlement proposal

BYJU'S parent company Think & Learn Pvt Ltd on Thursday informed the National Company Law Tribunal that its committee of creditors has approved a proposed agreement to resolve the long-running shareholding dispute over Aakash Educational Services, one of the last remaining value assets of the edtech firm.

The Bengaluru bench of NCLT adjourned the case till August 18, giving the parties additional time to finalize the settlement terms and submit the final report.

terms of deal

Under the proposed deal, the term loan B lender – represented by Glass Trust Co – would acquire a roughly 30% stake in Sky at a valuation of about $2 billion, according to Reuters, which first reported on advanced talks in June. In return, all parties will equally withdraw their legal proceedings, including the cases against founder Byju Raveendran.

The deal involves Ranjan Pai-led Manipal Education and Medical Group, which currently owns about 58% of Aakash. Think & Learn held a 25.75% stake before the rights issue, putting it at risk of diluting it to around 5%.

a long legal battle

The ownership dispute over Aakash has been one of the most controversial chapters of BYJU'S fall. BYJU'S acquired Aakash in 2021 for an estimated $950 million. Ranjan Pai first invested $168 million in Aakash in November 2023 to repay debt owed to Davidson Kempner and later converted his investment into equity in January 2024, becoming the largest shareholder.

The dispute intensified in 2025 and 2026 as Aakash pushed a rights issue, which BYJU'S challenged in the Supreme Court, arguing that it would dilute its stake. Earlier this year, Byju Raveendran announced an agreement in principle with lenders including Glass Trust and Qatar Investment Authority.

While the creditor's approval is a milestone, the settlement still requires formal approval from the NCLT. The tribunal is expected to hear the matter next on August 18.

Reliance promoters increase stake to 50.48% through market purchase of ₹9,000 crore

Reliance Industries' promoter group increased its shareholding by nearly half a per cent during the April-June quarter, spending an estimated ₹8,500-9,000 crore on market buying, which analysts see as a strong vote of confidence in India's most valuable company.

Gradual acquisition under SEBI rules

According to a PTI report on Thursday, regulatory shareholding data filed with the exchanges shows that the promoter and promoter group increased their stake to 50.48 per cent at the end of the June quarter from around 50 per cent three months ago. The purchase was made within the limits permitted under Sebi's incremental takeover rules, which allow promoters to gradually increase ownership without launching a mandatory open offer.

Reliance chairman Mukesh Ambani, his wife Nita and their three children - Isha, Akash and Anant - each individually hold about 4.61 crore shares, taking the combined direct family stake to about 1.70 per cent. Ambani's mother Kokilaben holds about 3.14 crore shares, which is 0.24 per cent stake. The bulk of promoter holdings is routed through group entities, with Srichakra Commercials LLP holding the largest stake at 10.93 per cent, followed by Devarshi Commercials LLP, Karuna Commercials LLP and Tattvam Enterprises LLP at 8.06 per cent.

Signal of confidence before earnings

The stake increase comes at a time when Reliance is making big investments in its retail, digital and new energy businesses. The company's board was scheduled to meet on July 17 to consider Q1 FY27 results. Market analysts view the promoter purchase as a sign of long-term confidence in the group's growth path.

The move also follows Reliance's annual general meeting in June, where the company outlined plans, including a draft prospectus, for Jio Platforms for an initial public offering. The steady accumulation by the Ambani family reinforces a pattern of promoter buying, with their stake increasing from 50 per cent at the end of December 2024 to the current level in consecutive quarters.

European shares fall as global chip selloff deepens

European shares opened lower on Friday as a global semiconductor selloff that began on Wall Street and spread across the continent was heightened by persistent geopolitical unease over the US-Iran conflict.

Chip stocks lead the decline

The pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.6% at 639.94 points in early trading, with investors exiting semiconductor stocks after the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index fell 3.5% in New York on Thursday. The selloff continued despite strong earnings from TSMC, whose bullish outlook failed to boost sentiment.

The STOXX Europe 600 Technology index fell more than 2% at the open, with chipmakers ASML, Infineon and STMicroelectronics among the heaviest-declining stocks. The weakness came just days after ASML raised its full-year sales forecast for the second time to 2026, forecasting annual revenues of €43 billion to €45 billion.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has fueled widespread risk aversion, which has intermittently roiled the market since hostilities escalated in late February. Oil prices remained high throughout July after repeated firing between US and Iranian militaries, keeping energy costs high and inflation concerns persisting.

Saab broke the trend

Swedish defense group Saab emerged as a rare gainer after reporting its second-quarter results early Friday. The company made an operating profit of HKD 2.79 billion, beating analysts' consensus of SKK 2.48 billion. Order bookings rose to SK 68.4 billion, more than double from SK 28.4 billion a year earlier, boosted by a SK 47 billion submarine order from Poland.

Sales rose to SK 25.5 billion, reflecting organic growth of nearly 30%, as Europe's rearmament campaign continued to fill the company's order book.

broader context

The session extended a difficult period for European markets. Stocks had already closed lower on Thursday amid geopolitical concerns and weakness in the technology sector. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.85% on the day, while Asian markets also fell sharply, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling more than 4.5%. US futures opened pointing towards further decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 1.6%.

Nikkei drops over 5% as global chip selloff deepens

Asian markets plunged on Friday, July 17, as a deepening semiconductor selloff spread across the region, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling more than 5% to its lowest level since June 11 and Taiwan's Taiex tumbling over 4% in morning trade. The rout extended a second consecutive session of steep losses as investors continued unwinding positions tied to the artificial intelligence trade.

AI Boom Under Scrutiny

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has now dropped roughly 19% from its June peak, according to Bloomberg, as mounting skepticism over whether hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure spending will generate adequate returns drives investors toward the exits. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell nearly 4% in U.S. trading on Thursday, extending its weekly decline to almost 7%.

TSMC, a bellwether for AI chip demand, retreated despite posting record second-quarter profit of $22.36 billion — a 77% jump from a year earlier that handily beat analyst estimates. Shares of the world's largest contract chipmaker fell as much as 4.5% in Taipei on Friday after it raised its capital spending outlook, with some analysts flagging concerns over rising costs amid fatigue over the years-long AI boom.

In Japan, Kioxia, which surpassed Toyota by market capitalization as recently as June, has seen its value roughly halve over the past month. The MSCI Asia Pacific equities gauge dropped 2.1%, while Chinese AI and technology shares also extended losses.

Overstretched Positioning Blamed

Analysts have attributed the selloff largely to overstretched positioning rather than a fundamental collapse in demand. Morgan Stanley has characterized the decline as a "mid-cycle adjustment rather than a peak," according to Forbes. CBS News reported this week that the selloff underscores "a gnawing anxiety among investors: whether Big Tech's massive spending on artificial intelligence will ultimately pay off."

The S&P 500 lost 0.5% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%, with semiconductor shares leading the decline. South Korean markets were closed for a public holiday. Rising geopolitical tensions and a roughly 12% weekly gain in Brent crude added to risk aversion across the region.

NSE begins global IPO roadshow as Dolat Capital downgrades sell rating on bourses

Dolat Capital has initiated coverage with a sell rating on all three Indian exchanges, including the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), arguing that their valuations fail to take into account the emerging regulatory risks associated with the Reserve Bank of India's clampdown on bank guarantees. The contrarian call comes just as NSE begins a global investor roadshow for what is expected to be one of India's largest initial public offerings ever.

A bearish bet on India's exchange giants

According to the Economic Times, the Dolat Capital report identifies an estimated Rs 1.3 lakh crore to Rs 1.5 lakh crore bank-guarantee funding pool that underpins proprietary trading firms – companies that have historically used these guarantees to secure market exposure to more than double their capital. Dolat analysts led by Punit Bahlani wrote that the revised RBI norms have effectively reduced that leverage for a time, and replacing bank guarantees with commercial paper could increase funding costs from just 1 per cent to around 11 per cent, making many trading strategies unviable.

The brokerage initiated coverage of NSE, BSE and MCX with sell ratings, arguing that their valuations do not adequately capture these emerging regulatory risks. For NSE, the target price of Rs 1,550 is about 26 per cent lower than the exchange's current unlisted-market value, which has been trading around Rs 2,096 in recent days.

IPO momentum continues

The bearish call comes amid intense momentum for NSE listings. According to Reuters, roadshows were scheduled to begin on July 17 in Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, London and the United States, with the exchange attracting more than 30 global institutional investors. NSE is targeting listing in September or October.

According to Bloomberg, the IPO is structured as a net sale offer of about 14.89 crore shares – about 6 per cent of the equity – with an expected size of Rs 28,000-31,500 crore ($3 billion). State Bank of India is the largest selling shareholder, while Life Insurance Corporation of India will not participate in the sale. NSE filed its draft red herring prospectus with SEBI on June 17, 2026.

A Pattern of Contrarian Calls

Dolat Capital has a history of issuing sell ratings before or shortly after high-profile listings. In 2021, the brokerage initiated coverage on Zomato with a sell rating and a target of Rs 90 per share soon after its market debut, citing inflated valuations. The latest call on Indian exchanges follows a similar logic – prioritizing structural risk over market euphoria – although it puts the company at odds with the market as a whole expecting strong demand for the NSE offering.

HDFC Bank to report first quarter results on Friday as analysts estimate profit growth of up to 9%

India's largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, is scheduled to announce financial results for the first quarter of FY2027 on Saturday, July 18. Analysts broadly expect net profit growth between 6% to 9% year-on-year, supported by strong loan growth and stable margins.

What do analysts expect?

The bank's board will meet on July 18 to consider and approve the unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter ending June 2026. Systematics Research expects HDFC Bank to report a 9.2% year-on-year rise in net interest income to ₹34,335 crore. Motilal Oswal, which estimates 10.1% year-on-year growth in profits after tax for private banks across the region, estimates a sequential decline of about 4% quarter-on-quarter for the banks under its coverage.

Moneycontrol data The analysts' consensus points to a net profit of around ₹21,074 crore for the quarter and gross profit growth of 5.9% year-on-year. Net interest margin is expected to stabilize in the 3.4% to 3.5% corridor as high-cost merger-era liabilities continue to mature.

Strong credit growth underlines optimism

HDFC Bank, in its business update released in early July, reported 15.4% year-on-year growth in gross advances and 14.7% growth in total deposits during the April-June quarter. The update caused shares to rise as much as 3.6% in a single session, with Reuters reporting that the lender contributed to about 56% of the Nifty 50's gains on the day.

JM Financial expects the broader banking sector to register around 14% PAT growth year-on-year, supported by healthy credit expansion and higher treasury income. HDFC Bank's loan book growth is being driven by commercial banking, corporate, agriculture and gold loan segments, while wholesale loan originations have been deliberately controlled to bring the credit-to-deposit ratio closer to 100%.

Context and market position

HDFC Bank is entering the earnings season after reporting full year FY26 net income of ₹760.3 billion, an increase of 7.4% over the previous year. The bank has also recently received RBI approval for Rajeev Kumar as the new part-time chairman with effect from July 15. HDB Financial Services, a subsidiary of HDFC Bank, has already reported a record quarterly profit of ₹785 crore for Q1 FY27, up 38.3% year-on-year, indicating broader strength across the group.

Customs joins health ministry in fighting Adani over sale of nicotine sachets

India's customs officials have become the second government agency to confront Adani Group over the sale of nicotine pouches at duty-free shops at Mumbai's Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport, escalating a legal battle that could reshape the operations of duty-free retailers across the country.

Customs challenges duty-free immunity argument

In a filing submitted to the Bombay High Court in Mumbai on June 22, the Customs Department argued that duty-free shops "have only tax benefits and are not exempt from other regulations," directly contradicting Adani's position that domestic drug laws do not apply in duty-free zones, Reuters reported on Wednesday. "The concept of goods being 'out of customs limits' for taxation purposes does not confer exemption from regulatory control," the Customs Department said.

The case stems from an inspection of duty-free shops in the airport departures area by India's drug department in March, which was prompted by complaints from anti-nicotine group Mothers Against Vaping. Inspectors found that imported nicotine pouches – including Zine, a brand made by Philip Morris and White Fox – were being sold without the necessary approvals. An assistant drug controller, in a letter to the airport customs authority on April 2, said that "nicotine pouches also fall under the definition of drug" and "a valid registration certificate and import license is mandatory".

Adani presented legal challenge

Adani has denied wrongdoing and has asked the court to declare that India's Drugs and Cosmetics Act does not apply to duty-free shops or nicotine pouches. In court filings, the company argued that nicotine pouches "are not a drug" and are a "recent innovation" that is not anticipated by existing tobacco control laws. On June 24, a judge of the Bombay High Court, granting interim relief, ruled that no "coercive action" could be taken against the airport shops in respect of their existing stock.

The Indian government has since urged the court to reject Adani's challenge, arguing that the sale is a "substantial violation" of drug laws and poses a "serious public health risk". The next hearing of the case is to be held on July 28.

Wide stakes for Adani's airport ambitions

The controversy has wide-ranging implications for Adani Group's aviation strategy. The group currently operates eight airports in India and has outlined an $11 billion expansion plan by 2030 that includes an emphasis on duty-free retail offerings. Selling medicines without a license in India is punishable with a jail term of not less than three years and a fine of not less than Rs 100,000 or three times the value of the seized goods, whichever is higher.

Indian banks race to capture NRI dollar deposits under RBI's special FCNR swap window

Indian banks are engaged in an aggressive effort to attract foreign currency deposits from NRIs to seize a special swap facility launched by the Reserve Bank of India on June 8, 2026, which eliminates hedging costs and exempts eligible deposits from reserve requirements. The scheme, which is open until September 30, has sparked a rate war, with lenders offering USD deposit rates as high as 7.1 per cent – ​​up from around 3 to 4 per cent before the announcement.

Banks set ambitious targets

Union Bank of India, which reported a 29.5 per cent year-on-year rise in standalone net profit to ₹5,332 crore in the April-June quarter, said it has already raised about $106 million under the scheme and is targeting $1.5 to $2 billion in FCNR(B) inflows by the time the window closes, according to Business Standard. This target would represent a four-fold increase from the $457 million the bank raised for full-year FCNR(B) in FY2016.

Indian Bank is pursuing a similar target, aiming to raise $2 billion through FCNR(B) deposits. "So far, we have secured $140 million between June 15 and July 9. We already have a pipeline of $1 billion," Indian Bank MD and CEO Binod Kumar told The Times of India.

According to rate comparisons compiled by InvestMates, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are offering 6 per cent on three- to five-year dollar deposits, while AU Small Finance Bank has reached 7.1 per cent. According to the Economic Times, HSBC is further leveraging its GIFT City branch, where NRIs can reportedly borrow up to 19 times their capital for FCNR(B) deposits. Brokerage Jefferies estimates that such leveraged structures could generate annual dollar returns of 17 to 27 percent.

How the scheme works – and its limitations

Under the RBI circular, banks accepting new three- to five-year FCNR (B) deposits can swap the dollar yield at par with the central bank, with the RBI absorbing the entire hedging cost. Deposits are also exempted from cash reserve ratio and statutory liquidity ratio requirements, freeing up capital for lending. Reuters reported that banks can now make loans against these deposits to non-residents, including offshore branches in GIFT City. Nomura estimates the plan could entail investments of $55 billion, with the bulk of that expected to come in August and September.

There is a mandatory lock-in of one year on each deposit, and the interest earned is completely exempt from Indian income tax for NRIs.

Margins remain under pressure during earnings season

The broader banking sector is entering the Q1 FY27 earnings session on a strong note. Emkay Global Financial Services has estimated a 12.2 per cent year-on-year growth in profit after tax for lenders under its coverage supported by strong loan growth and stable asset quality, although it has flagged margin compression from increased funding costs and weak treasury earnings as near-term headwinds. Analysts expect relief from lower funding costs from Q2FY27.

For now, the FCNR race offers banks a way to shore up dollar reserves and deploy cheap foreign currency funding – provided they move before the September 30 deadline.

India to co-invest with VCs in chip startups under $13B Semicon 2.0

India will become a venture-style investor in semiconductor startups under the newly approved Semiconductor 2.0 program that will match private capital at every funding stage from I to Series C, while leaving operational control with the founders, India Semiconductor Mission CEO Amitesh Kumar Sinha said on Wednesday.

Shift from grants to equity

Speaking at a media roundtable on July 16, a day after the Union Cabinet approved the program with an outlay of Rs 1.27 lakh crore ($13.17 billion), Sinha outlined a co-investment model that marks a departure from the grant-based approach of the first phase of the mission. Under the new structure, chip design startups that develop proof of concept and secure funding from a private venture capital firm will become eligible for government investment on the same business terms.

“Based on that requirement, the government will also bear half of the money it brings in from the market,” Sinha said. “Based on the terms and conditions of the VC, we will match the same amount with the same type of stake.”

The government will remain in minority status – typically less than 50 per cent – ​​and will not seek board-level control, according to Moneycontrol, which first reported Sinha's comments. Promoters will retain control of the stake, and the government plans to exit once the startup grows larger, allowing the founders to buy back shares.

comprehensive program architecture

The co-investment mechanism is a pillar of a six-part strategy approved by the Cabinet on July 15 to strengthen India's semiconductor ecosystem. In addition to equity participation, the design program will continue to offer grants for proof-of-concept development and access to electronic design automation tools, while also introducing a royalty-based funding option whereby companies can repay government support through a share of future revenues.

Across the broader value chain, silicon fabrication plants will get 40 percent financial assistance, compound semiconductor fabs will get 35 percent, advanced packaging facilities will get 35 percent and manufacturers of semiconductor equipment, chemicals and gases will get 30 percent financial assistance. The research and talent development initiative will receive up to 75 per cent funding through joint central and state government participation.

Scale Ambitions

According to The New Indian Express, the government expects Semicon 2.0 to contribute about Rs 4 lakh crore to total investment over the next decade, generate semiconductor and electronics production worth Rs 2 lakh crore and boost exports to about Rs 1 lakh crore. The program builds on 12 projects already approved under the first phase, representing approximately Rs 1.64 lakh crore in committed investment in manufacturing, composite semiconductors and packaging.

With 105 startups already developing semiconductor chips domestically, the equity co-investment framework aims to address what officials have identified as a persistent capital gap in India's deep-tech ecosystem.

Coca-Cola halts US Fairlife production after ransomware attack

Coca-Cola revealed on Thursday that its dairy subsidiary Fairlife, LLC has temporarily suspended all production operations in the United States after a ransomware attack affected parts of its systems, including those linked to manufacturing.

The company disclosed the breach in a Form 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, saying FairLife "identified unauthorized access by a third party to a portion of its systems in connection with the ransomware incident." Production at Fairlife's US facilities has been halted while the company works to restore affected systems, although its Canadian operations are unaffected.

Feedback and investigation

Coca-Cola said it activated incident response and business continuity protocols after discovering the breach and notified law enforcement authorities. The company has hired external cybersecurity experts and consultants to assist in the investigation.

"The full scope, nature and impact of the incident are not yet known," the company said in its SEC filing. "Accordingly, the Company has not yet determined whether this incident is reasonably likely to have a material impact on the Company."

Coca-Cola insisted that the attack did not affect product quality and safety. No timeline was provided for the resumption of US production, although full capacity restoration is expected in the coming days or weeks, according to Reuters.

Increasing threat to food and beverages

The attack on FairLife comes amid a sharp increase in ransomware incidents targeting the food and agriculture sector. Data from the Center for Food and Agriculture Information Sharing and Analysis showed that the sector was targeted by 265 attacks in 2025, part of a total of 6,377 ransomware incidents across all critical infrastructure sectors – an 82 percent increase compared to 2024.

According to Food & Ag-ISAC, the food and beverage industry has become an attractive target for ransomware groups because of its reliance on just-in-time operations and legacy production systems. On its most recent earnings call, Coca-Cola noted that it was working to increase Fairlife production to meet growing demand – efforts now disrupted by the breach.

Coca-Cola's shares slipped after this revelation.

Only $5-6 billion was invested in RBI's FCNR scheme, which is much less than expected: Barclays

India's special FCNR (B) deposit scheme, launched by the Reserve Bank of India on June 8, has seen inflows of only an estimated $5-6 billion so far, according to Barclays, much lower than the $40-70 billion estimated by analysts before the window opened.

The decline comes as the rupee faces fresh pressure due to rising crude oil prices due to escalating US-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Trading Economics, the USD/INR pair rose to around 96.49 on Wednesday, erasing the recovery that had taken the currency back from record lows in May.

The plan falls short of the 2013 precedent

Barclays noted that banks have raised about $5-6 billion under the scheme, with State Bank of India alone reportedly contributing about $2 billion. This figure is a fraction of the $25–30 billion Barclays had initially estimated that the FCNR (B) channel alone could attract, as part of a broader package of $60–70 billion.

Other estimates ranged from $10 billion by Goldman Sachs and Emkay Global to $50–70 billion by some market participants. In 2013, a similar RBI scheme had mobilized nearly $30 billion in deposits in a matter of weeks.

Under the existing programme, the RBI absorbs the entire currency hedging cost for banks raising new FCNR (B) deposits of three to five years, while also exempting them from CRR and SLR requirements. Banks raised dollar deposit rates to 7.1%, offering a premium over comparable US Treasuries.

Rupee under pressure due to oil spike

The rupee slipped to 96 per dollar on July 14 for the first time since late May after the United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iran and fresh attacks between the two countries near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. Brent crude rose sharply this week, putting pressure on India's trade balance given the country's heavy dependence on imported oil.

The currency had recovered in June after the RBI announced a capital-inflow package, but these gains were largely pared down. The RBI is intervening in spot and non-deliverable futures markets to stem losses, traders told Reuters.

Window open till September

RBI's swap facility for deposits mobilized till September 30 remains open till October 16. Analysts expect inflows to be back-end as banks step up marketing to NRIs and depositors weigh the narrow window. A one-year lock-in on deposits and a mandatory tenure of three to five years may dampen enthusiasm among potential depositors accustomed to shorter maturity periods.

The outcome of the scheme has a cascading effect on India's foreign exchange reserves, which dropped to $666.93 billion at the end of June, and also on the RBI's ability to defend the rupee without further depleting its dollar reserves.

Record consumer defaults collide with China's slowest growth in three years

Nearly 100 million Chinese consumers are struggling to repay their personal loans, exacerbating a largely hidden crisis that is now colliding with Beijing's weak growth path. The problem is worsening even as policymakers have doubled down on debt-driven stimulus to boost domestic demand.

$329 billion mountain of bad debt

Non-performing household loans surged 21 percent last year to an unprecedented 2.22 trillion yuan ($329 billion), according to research from Gavecal Dragonomics, which analyzed financial reports from 26 banks after authorities stopped releasing aggregate figures on outstanding personal loans. The total, equivalent to about 1.6 percent of GDP, means that 10.6 percent of China's 1.1 billion adults – nearly one in ten – could fall behind on debt payments by the end of 2025. Analysis by the Financial Research Institute of Zhejiang University estimated that Chinese financial institutions may need to dispose of two trillion to three trillion yuan in non-performing personal loans annually.

According to bankers cited by Reuters, the surge is "mainly the result of last year's easy debt issuance to meet government consumption targets." China's domestic debt has nearly tripled over the past decade to about 83 trillion yuan. In January, the National Financial Regulatory Administration extended a program allowing banks to collectively transfer problem personal loans through the end of 2026, as lenders grapple with rising defaults and credit card defaults.

excitement meets stagnation

The record defaults come as Beijing is actively encouraging consumers to borrow. In January, the Finance Ministry extended and expanded its interest rate subsidy program for consumer loans until the end of 2026, added credit card installment plans and removed regional restrictions. The annual subsidy limit per borrower remains at 3,000 yuan per institution, with 90 percent of the cost borne by the central government.

Yet credit demand remains weak. Bloomberg reported this week that China's credit expansion missed forecasts in June, with borrowing demand showing "little sign of emerging from a years-long crisis caused by weak domestic consumer spending and investment."

Growth rate at lowest level in three years

The consumer credit crisis comes against the backdrop of Wednesday's gross domestic product data, which showed China's economy grew just 4.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026 — the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2022 and below the 4.5 percent consensus forecast. Reuters reported that weak domestic demand and oil shocks linked to the Iran conflict overshadowed strong production and exports. Growth in the first half stood at 4.7 percent, but within the lower bound of Beijing's 4.5 to 5 percent annual target.

Economists warn the contradiction at the core of the policy – ​​promoting cheap credit to households whose incomes are not growing – risks exacerbating rather than solving the crime problem. As Rhodium Group noted in March, "The health of China's financial system is set to deteriorate further in 2025, while fiscal revenues decline overall," and "no reforms are underway to improve them".

SK Hynix falls in global chip defeat days after record US IPO

SK Hynix, the South Korean memory chip giant which just days ago had the biggest U.S. listing ever by a foreign company, found itself stuck in a punishing semiconductor defeat on Thursday as Asian and U.S. chip stocks capped several days of declines amid doubts over the sustainability of its AI business.

A historical list meets market reality

SK Hynix began trading on Nasdaq on July 10 after raising $26.5 billion by selling 177.9 million American depositary shares at $149 a share. The listing became the largest US debut by a foreign company, surpassing Alibaba's $25 billion IPO in 2014. Shares rose about 13% on their first day of trading and closed around $168.

But this enthusiasm proved short-lived. By Monday, July 13, SK Hynix's Seoul-listed shares fell a record 15%, while its U.S.-listed ADRs fell nearly 6% as investors booked profits and a brokerage report warned the company's quarterly operating profit may be lower than estimated. The selloff deepened this week, with shares in Seoul closing 11.5% lower on Thursday after rising 8% in the previous session.

sector-wide transition

The selling pressure was not limited to SK Hynix. Samsung Electronics fell more than 8% in Seoul on Thursday, while the Kospi fell more than 6%, triggering another sidecar - this one 2026's 37th. In the US, Micron Technology fell 8% overnight, while Intel fell more than 4%.

The defeat came as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported 77% earnings growth that failed to impress investors jittery about the valuation spread in the AI ​​chip complex.

what comes next

Despite the turmoil, SK Hynix holds about 57% of the high-bandwidth memory market needed for AI servers, with revenue up 198% and margins above 70%. The company has scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings call for July 29. How it handles this volatility – with billions raised just as sentiment changed – will test whether the AI ​​chip boom can maintain its record-setting pace or whether the market's appetite has finally reached its limit.

Citi says Indian clients now betting on rupee volatility

Citigroup has reported that its Indian corporate clients increasingly expect the rupee to continue weakening and are seeking financial products that allow them to profit from currency volatility, according to Bloomberg. The shift marks a departure from traditional hedging strategies as the Indian currency has depreciated roughly 12% against the dollar over the past year.

A Year of Rupee Pressure

The Indian rupee has been Asia's worst-performing major currency in 2026, falling from around 86 per dollar a year ago to approximately 96 per dollar in mid-July. The depreciation has been driven by soaring oil prices, sustained foreign investor outflows, and a widening current account deficit. The sharp decline has made currency risk a central topic during corporate earnings calls, with companies scrambling to adjust their foreign exchange strategies.

The change in client behavior at Citi reflects broader trends in India's corporate hedging market. Reuters reported in early July that Indian exporters booked a record $46.3 billion in hedges in June alone, up 45% from a year earlier, while importers bought nearly $74 billion in protection — bringing cumulative monthly hedging activity to a record $120 billion. Earlier in the year, importers had dominated hedging activity as exporters held back, betting on further depreciation.

RBI Measures and Market Response

India's central bank has taken aggressive steps to stem the rupee's slide. On June 5, the Reserve Bank of India announced a package of measures including fully subsidizing foreign exchange hedging costs for banks raising fresh foreign currency deposits, offering concessional swap facilities for state-owned enterprises, and restoring the timeline for exporters to repatriate dollar earnings to nine months. The government simultaneously removed capital gains and interest income taxes on government securities for foreign investors.

Citi's India CEO K. Balasubramanian said India could attract as much as $80 billion in foreign capital by year-end following these measures. Separately, Citi economists led by Samiran Chakraborty have warned that India may need to introduce further restrictions on capital outflows, including tighter curbs on overseas direct investment by Indian firms.

Corporates Adapt to New Reality

The rupee's sustained weakness has fundamentally altered how Indian companies approach currency risk. Rather than simply hedging against losses, corporates are now looking to monetize the volatility itself — a strategy shift that suggests many have accepted further depreciation as the base case. The trend underscores how prolonged currency stress is reshaping India's corporate treasury landscape, even as policymakers work to stabilize the rupee and attract fresh dollar inflows.

एफएटीएफ ने चेतावनी दी है कि आपराधिक समूह जब्ती से बचने के लिए स्थिर सिक्के बना रहे हैं

फाइनेंशियल एक्शन टास्क फोर्स ने गुरुवार को आभासी संपत्तियों पर अपना सातवां लक्षित अपडेट जारी किया, जिसमें चेतावनी दी गई कि संगठित अपराध समूह क्रिप्टो के माध्यम से अरबों की अवैध आय ले जा रहे हैं और कुछ आपराधिक नेटवर्क ने अधिकारियों द्वारा फ्रीजिंग और जब्ती का विरोध करने के लिए अपने स्वयं के स्टेबलकॉइन विकसित करना शुरू कर दिया है।

अंतर सरकारी निकाय के पेरिस मुख्यालय से प्रकाशित रिपोर्ट में पाया गया कि क्रिप्टो-सक्षम अपराध पिछले वर्ष में अधिक "जटिल और परस्पर जुड़ा हुआ" हो गया है, जिसमें अवैध अभिनेताओं द्वारा स्थिर सिक्कों का दुरुपयोग तेजी से बढ़ रहा है।

विनियामक प्रगति, प्रवर्तन अंतराल

जबकि एफएटीएफ ने वैश्विक अनुपालन में कुछ सुधार देखा, अद्यतन ने विधायी कार्रवाई और प्रभावी प्रवर्तन के बीच लगातार अंतर का खुलासा किया। रिपोर्ट में पाया गया कि सर्वेक्षण किए गए 83% न्यायक्षेत्रों ने अब यात्रा नियम को लागू करने वाला कानून पारित कर दिया है - जो 2025 में 73% से अधिक है। फिर भी अप्रैल 2026 तक, मूल्यांकन किए गए 149 न्यायक्षेत्रों में से केवल 51 क्रिप्टो के लिए एफएटीएफ के मानकों के साथ "काफी हद तक अनुपालन" कर रहे थे, जो पिछले वर्ष के 29% से केवल एक तिहाई अधिक है।

रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है कि क्रिप्टो अपराध को कम करने के लिए जोखिम आकलन को वास्तविक कदमों में बदलने में "महत्वपूर्ण कमियां" बनी हुई हैं, नियामकों, वित्तीय संस्थानों और क्रिप्टो कंपनियों को घोटालेबाज यौगिकों और निवेश धोखाधड़ी नेटवर्क से मनी-लॉन्ड्रिंग प्रवाह का पता लगाने और रोकने में "महत्वपूर्ण और चल रही चुनौतियों" का सामना करना पड़ रहा है।

बढ़ते खतरे के रूप में स्थिर सिक्के

मालिकाना आपराधिक स्टैब्लॉक्स के बारे में चेतावनी डिजिटल संपत्तियों के बारे में एफएटीएफ की चिंताओं में वृद्धि का संकेत देती है। मार्च 2026 में, निकाय ने स्टेबलकॉइन्स और अनहोस्टेड वॉलेट्स पर एक अलग लक्षित रिपोर्ट प्रकाशित की, जिसमें बताया गया कि कैसे मूल्य स्थिरता और पर्याप्त तरलता स्टेबलकॉइन्स को अवैध आय को स्थानांतरित करने के लिए एक पसंदीदा माध्यम बनाती है। पहले की रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है कि कुछ न्यायक्षेत्रों ने फ्रीजिंग और इनकार-सूचीकरण का समर्थन करने के लिए जारीकर्ताओं को स्थिर मुद्रा स्मार्ट अनुबंधों में प्रोग्राम योग्य नियंत्रण एम्बेड करने की आवश्यकता शुरू कर दी है।

सबसे बड़े स्टेबलकॉइन जारीकर्ता टीथर ने फरवरी में कहा था कि उसने अवैध गतिविधियों से जुड़े होने के कारण अपने 4.2 बिलियन डॉलर के टोकन फ्रीज कर दिए हैं, 2023 से 3.5 बिलियन डॉलर फ्रीज किए हुए हैं। लेकिन आपराधिक समूहों द्वारा कस्टम स्टेबलकॉइन का विकास इस तरह के केंद्रीकृत नियंत्रणों को पूरी तरह से दरकिनार करने के प्रयासों का सुझाव देता है।

कार्यवाई के लिए बुलावा

एफएटीएफ ने सरकारों और निजी क्षेत्र से जोखिम-आधारित पर्यवेक्षण को मजबूत करने, यात्रा नियम कार्यान्वयन में सुधार करने और उन नियामक खामियों को बंद करने के लिए अंतरराष्ट्रीय सहयोग बढ़ाने का आह्वान किया, जिनका अवैध अभिनेता लगातार फायदा उठा रहे हैं। निकाय ने नोट किया कि क्योंकि आभासी संपत्ति स्वाभाविक रूप से सीमाहीन होती है, एक क्षेत्राधिकार में नियामक विफलताओं के वैश्विक परिणाम हो सकते हैं।

India to introduce bill to exempt foreign investors from tax on government bonds

The Indian government will introduce the Income Tax (Amendment) Bill, 2026, during the monsoon session of Parliament starting July 20, which will replace an ordinance that exempts foreign investors from income tax on interest income and capital gains from government securities.

replacement of ordinance

The bill will formalize the tax relief first enacted through the Income Tax (Amendment) Ordinance, 2026, announced by President Draupadi Murmu on June 5. That ordinance amended Schedule IV of the Income Tax Act, 2025, reducing long-term capital gains tax on government bond holdings of foreign institutional investors from 12.5 per cent to nil and eliminating the 20 per cent withholding tax on interest income. The changes took effect retroactively from April 1, 2026.

Under Indian constitutional requirements, ordinances must be replaced by parliamentary legislation within six weeks of the next session or they will lapse. According to Union Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju, the monsoon session will run from July 20 to August 13.

Deepening the sovereign debt market

According to PTI, the bill aims to "deepen India's sovereign debt market, attract stable global capital flows and enhance liquidity" amid what the government describes as volatility arising from geopolitical uncertainties, rising crude oil prices and disruptions in global supply chains.

The Union Finance Ministry had said in June that the exemption would encourage participation of long-term investors such as pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds and align India's taxation on government securities with comparable jurisdictions. This exemption also extends to the Bank for International Settlements.

Scope and conditions

The tax relief applies strictly to government securities as defined under the Government Securities Act, 2006, and does not cover equity investments or corporate bonds held by foreign portfolio investors. To claim exemption, eligible investors have to provide information in a prescribed form to the tax authorities. The bill is among the new laws listed to be tabled when the session begins on Sunday.

Europe's heat waves threaten to send food prices rising in 2027

Germany has recorded an estimated 5,120 heat-related deaths so far this year, according to the country's national public health agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the majority of which occurred during a heat wave that hit in late June and hit much of Europe for more than a week. The figure underlines the increasing lethality of extreme heat events across the continent, where more than 10,000 deaths were recorded during the same period.

A deadly June across Europe

Preliminary data from Germany's federal statistics office showed that there were 5,486 more deaths in the last full week of June than the average for 2022-2025. The RKI attributed most of this year's deaths to the heat in late June, when the weekly average temperature far exceeded 20 degrees Celsius. Most of the victims were elderly, with approximately 4,270 of them being 75 or older.

The death toll extended far beyond Germany. European countries collectively reported more than 10,000 deaths during the heatwave in late June, according to Reuters, of which more than 9,000 were people aged 65 and older, based on data from EuroMoMo, a death-tracking network supported by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organization. Spain recorded more than 1,000 heat-related deaths, more than double the number in June 2025, while France recorded more than 1,000 deaths. Italy is currently experiencing a third wave of extreme heat, with 16 cities at the highest "red alert" level on 17 July.

Europe is warming faster than anywhere else

The crisis reflects a broader trend identified by the World Meteorological Organization, which in April described Europe as the fastest-warming continent on Earth. The continent is warming at a rate almost twice the global average. A World Weather Attribution study released in June found that fossil fuel emissions have "rapidly worsened" European heatwaves in just a few decades.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called extreme heat a "silent killer" in late June as the number of early deaths rose.

Food prices at risk from heatwave in 2027

Beyond the human cost, economists warn that extreme heat could strain household budgets. Oxford Economics expects eurozone food inflation to rise to about 3% in 2027, from 1.6% in June 2026, as crop damage works its way through supply chains. "We think this summer's heat will drive up food prices more than the war next year," said Tomas Dvorak, senior economist at Oxford Economics, referring to the earlier Israel-Iran conflict. The firm estimates that the impact of weather alone could increase food inflation by one percentage point next year, with the impact being most intense in the first half of 2027.

Citadel Securities invests $20M in Crypto.com at a $400B valuation

Crypto.com on Thursday announced a $400 million strategic investment from Citadel Securities, valuing the cryptocurrency exchange at $20 billion and marking the platform's first institutional funding round in its decade-long history.

A bridge between traditional and digital finance

The investment from one of the world's largest market makers signals deep convergence between traditional finance and digital asset infrastructure. Citadel Securities – known as the largest retail market maker in the United States – is expanding its crypto exposure through the deal, which will help push Crypto.com beyond its core cryptocurrency trading business into tokenized securities, derivatives and other asset classes.

“We are thrilled to work with Citadel Securities to lead the crypto industry into a new era of institutionalization,” said Chris Marszalek, Co-Founder and CEO of Crypto.com. “The size of the opportunity before us is staggering, as crypto is rapidly becoming the rails for finance.”

Jim Esposito, president of Citadel Securities, said in the company's press release that "the convergence of traditional financial markets and digital asset infrastructure is an exciting development with the potential to further improve market efficiency."

A decade without external capital

The deal is notable for Crypto.com's long history of operating without outside institutional funding. Founded in 2016, the Singapore-based exchange first grew through revenue rather than venture capital, which is rare among major crypto platforms. The $20 billion valuation places Crypto.com among the most valuable private companies in the digital asset sector.

The Financial Times reported that the investment will expand the crypto exchange's collaboration with Citadel Securities as the industry undergoes rapid institutionalization.

growing institutional interest

The deal adds to Citadel Securities' broader push into the crypto markets. According to Bloomberg, the company has recently invested alongside other digital asset companies, as traditional finance players look to crypto infrastructure as an essential pipeline to the capital markets of the future. The funding round comes as crypto exchanges pursue different strategies – rivals like Kraken have also recently sought higher valuations ahead of a potential public listing.

Yen rises on intervention warning, US inflation low

The Japanese yen edged higher against the US dollar on Thursday as Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated his warning that Tokyo is prepared to act on currency moves, while softer-than-expected US inflation data dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this month.

Katayama reiterated his intervention stance

According to reports, Katayama then said the government is ready to "take appropriate action at any time, as needed" on the foreign exchange, maintaining his repeatedly adopted verbal stance from the beginning of 2026 as the yen neared a four-decade low against the dollar. The USD/JPY pair traded around the 162 level on Thursday, just shy of this week's highs.

Japan spent a record ¥11.73 trillion yen to support the yen between late April and late May, according to official data, and persistent weakness near 162 has kept markets wary of the possibility of new intervention. Katayama stressed that Tokyo is in close and constant contact with Washington on foreign exchange issues.

Lower US inflation makes rate hikes less likely

The yen's gains were boosted by data that showed US inflation slowing faster than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the consumer price index fell 0.4% in June, its biggest monthly decline since April 2020, bringing the annual rate down to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core CPI remained stable this month and increased 2.6% year-on-year.

Wednesday's producer price data reinforced this trend, with the PPI falling 0.3% in June – the largest decline in 14 months – driven by a 6.4% decline in energy prices. According to Reuters, the data caused traders to sharply reduce bets on a Fed rate increase at the July 28-29 meeting, causing the probability of a hike to fall to about 10%, from about 35% before the CPI release. Market pricing now points to about a 60% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting.

Outlook remains uncertain

The Fed currently holds its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%, and officials expect it to remain broadly on hold this month. While inflation data has provided relief, annual price growth remains well above the central bank's 2% target, leaving the door open for further tightening later in the year. As for the yen, traders are waiting for any shift from verbal warnings to actual intervention, with the currency trading close to levels that would trigger direct action in 2024.

IMF warns that oil market buffers are almost exhausted amid US-Iran tensions

Oil prices surged again this week amid renewed US military strikes against Iran and the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, as the International Monetary Fund warned that the cushion protecting the global economy from the worst energy shocks has largely been exhausted.

Escalation exposes fragile peace framework

The latest round of hostilities began on July 12 when US Central Command launched strikes to "degrade Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz". After lifting it in June as part of an interim peace agreement, President Trump reimposed a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports effective July 14. Iran responded by attacking US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman and Qatar and declared the strait closed to commercial traffic.

After rising 9.6% on Monday alone, Brent crude reached nearly $85 a barrel by midweek – the biggest single-day percentage gain for the international benchmark since May 2020. U.S. refining margins have simultaneously entered record territory, with the NYMEX 3-2-1 crack spread hitting an all-time high above $64 a barrel on July 8, as fuel inventories hit multi-year highs, according to Reuters data cited by industry trackers. Lower.

IMF: Loss of more than one billion barrels

In a blog post published on July 15, the IMF said that by the end of May, more than 1.1 billion barrels of crude oil – equivalent to about 10 days of normal global consumption – had failed to reach markets since the war began. The fund noted that the three shock absorbers that cushioned the initial shock – pre-war supply surpluses, coordinated inventory releases and low demand – have now largely dissipated.

"As tensions have risen again in the Strait of Hormuz, that space is now small and shrinking further as excess capacity is deployed, demand remains subdued and inventories are depleted," the IMF wrote. Reuters separately reported that the world "still faces the risk of future price increases" as long-term peace remains elusive and buffer reserves are depleted.

The market is eyeing the Fed

Energy price shocks have complicated the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The Fed has kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% through December 2025, and CME FedWatch data as of July 15 showed an 83.4% chance the central bank will cut rates at its July 29 meeting. But markets are increasing the risk of tightening later this year – CME data in early July showed the likelihood of a rate hike for 2026 climbing, and prediction market Polymarket showed a “25 bps increase” with a 30% chance for a September meeting.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook update, released on July 8, projects global growth in 2026 to be just 3%, down from 3.5% last year, with oil prices expected to rise about 32% for the full year and global consumer inflation averaging 4.7%.

Analysts warn vulnerable European airlines could face failure as fuel prices rise due to Iran war

Europe's financially weak airlines are staring at the possibility of bankruptcy and forced consolidation as the war in Iran drives up jet fuel prices and disrupts key air corridors, adding pressure to an industry already reeling from pandemic-era cost pressures.

Industry profits almost halved

The International Air Transport Association in June cut its 2026 global airline profit forecast to $23 billion, down from an earlier estimate of $41 billion — about half the $45 billion the industry will earn in 2025. IATA now expects a net profit margin of just 2.0% for the year, compared with 4.2% in 2025, with jet fuel costs projected to average $152 a barrel, up from $90 last year.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that analysts expect weaker European carriers to face a cash crunch by next spring, with IATA's chief warning that sustained high fuel costs will trigger failures and takeovers. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned in April that "two or three European airlines could go bankrupt" this winter, naming Wizz Air among the carriers at risk. Ryanair has locked in about 80% of its fuel until April 2027 at around $67 a barrel, while competitors are exposed to spot prices above $150.

Oil rises due to renewed hostilities

Oil prices rose nearly 10% on Monday after President Trump announced the resumption of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – the biggest single-day rise since 2020. Brent crude hit a one-month high on Tuesday after Reuters reported renewed US strikes against Iranian military installations aimed at protecting commercial shipping.

The conflict, which began on February 28, has already forced Lufthansa to cancel 20,000 flights and prompted Air France-KLM and other carriers to cut schedules.

Bond Market and Fed Policy

Rising oil prices are stoking broader inflation concerns. U.S. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.56% on Wednesday, well above the late-June average of 4.44%. According to CME Group FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a roughly 30% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its July 28-29 meeting, with an 80% chance of a hike in September. Strategist Ed Yardeni has argued that the Fed may need to hike by July to restore credibility amid rising inflation.

"Unfortunately, there is no quick fix, as we have seen damage to energy sector infrastructure across the Middle East," one energy analyst told NPR in April. "As a result, we estimate oil prices will remain high for a long time, possibly through the end of the year."

Netflix beats second-quarter profit estimates but misses on revenue

Netflix reported its second-quarter 2026 financial results on Thursday after markets closed, painting a mixed picture in which the streaming company beat profit expectations while slightly missing Wall Street's revenue targets. The company posted revenue of about $12.56 billion, representing a 13% increase year over year, but slightly below the $12.57 billion to $12.58 billion consensus estimate that analysts had estimated in the report.

The earnings beat came against the backdrop of analysts' expectations for earnings of $0.79 per share, with Netflix surpassing that figure on the strength of cost discipline and operating margins that beat the company's Q2 guidance of 32.6%.

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Netflix credited price increases in several markets and its fast-growing advertising business for the quarter's performance. The company's ad-supported tier now reaches more than 250 million monthly active viewers globally, a milestone that Netflix highlighted in its May 2026 upfront presentation. Management has previously guided for a doubling of advertising revenue to $3 billion by 2026, and Q2 results suggest progress toward that goal.

The advertising business has become central to Netflix's investment thesis, with analysts at companies including Bank of America and Cowen reporting the stock as an advertising bull.

Changes to Outlook Guidance and Reporting Cloud

Netflix's forward guidance for the third quarter fell short of analysts' expectations, a pattern that has pressured the stock in recent quarters. In Q1 2026, Netflix beat both revenue and earnings, but cautious guidance saw shares drop as much as 10% in after-hours trading.

The company also announced that it would move its Engagement Report – a twice-yearly publication detailing viewership for its titles – to an annual release. This change removes one of the few Windows investors and the industry that was into Netflix's content performance metrics.

Netflix shares entered Thursday's report under pressure, trading about 35% below their 52-week high of $134.12 and down about 24% in the first half of 2026. Prices on options markets were up about 7.3% in either direction following the results.

CXMT's record Shanghai IPO oversubscribed by 200 times

Changxin Memory Technologies' blockbuster initial public offering on Shanghai's Star Market was more than 200 times subscribed by retail investors on Thursday, according to exchange filings, cementing its position as Asia's biggest share sale in 2026.

The filing said the winning rate for the last lot in the “online tranche” of the offering – the portion open primarily to retail investors – came to only 0.47%. The frenzy underlines the huge appetite among Chinese investors for investment in the country's semiconductor sector amid an AI-driven boom.

Record-setting conditions

CXMT priced its IPO at 8.66 yuan per share, raising 57.9 billion yuan ($8.5 billion) from the sale of about 6.7 billion shares. If the 15 percent overallotment option is fully exercised, the offering could raise up to 66.6 billion yuan ($9.8 billion). The deal gives CXMT an implied valuation of about 579 billion yuan ($85.2 billion), making it the largest A-share IPO by a Chinese chip company, surpassing Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's 53.2 billion yuan listing in 2020.

The company is scheduled to start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27.

Global investors look for solutions

With mainland listings largely restricted to onshore investors, global market participants have looked for alternative routes to gain exposure. Bloomberg reported that Trade.xyz launched a perpetual futures contract on the Hyperliquid blockchain tied to CXMT's expected share price, creating a synthetic market for international bets on the deal. By midweek the contract rose from $6 to $8.64, meaning the valuation is many times the IPO price.

"For the next 12 days, no one on Wall Street can buy a single share of the biggest chip IPO of the year. Crypto traders are already trading it," noted market commentator Scott Melker said.

China's semiconductor ambitions

CXMT, based in Hefei, Anhui province, is China's largest DRAM maker and ranks fourth globally with 7.67 percent market share by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to research firm Omdia. The company competes with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology in a market increasingly affected by geopolitical tensions.

Reuters reported that CXMT's IPO is "a major milestone" toward Beijing's technological self-reliance. Digitimes analysts said the listing "highlights the growing geopolitical fragmentation of the global semiconductor industry" and strengthens China's ability to finance its memory chip ambitions domestically.

Some bullish Chinese investors are already looking beyond the IPO price. “CXMT’s valuation is likely to top 3 trillion yuan after the listing,” one investor told Reuters, “and could even reach 5 trillion yuan.”

Sales of memory chips take off after China's CXMT announces $8.6 billion IPO

SK Hynix stormed Wall Street last week with a $26.5 billion listing — the largest U.S. debut by a foreign company in history — but the enthusiasm has since given way to a punishing selloff that has spread across the memory chip sector.

From blockbuster debut to sharp reversal

The South Korean memory chip giant began trading on Nasdaq on July 10 under the ticker SKHYV, opening at $170 per American depositary receipt, about 14% above its $149 offer price. The 177.9 million ADR raised $26.5 billion, surpassing Alibaba's $25 billion IPO in 2014, which was the largest overseas listing in the history of the US market.

The rally proved short-lived. By the following Monday, US-listed shares were down 6% as a South Korean brokerage report suggested SK Hynix's operating profit for the current quarter may be lower than estimated. The stock continued to decline throughout the week, falling nearly 9% at one point before rebounding, only to fall again with peers on Wednesday. On Thursday, SK Hynix and SanDisk each fell about 7%, while Micron Technology dropped 5%, after China's CXMT announced an $8.6 billion IPO, raising fears of increased DRAM competition.

Memory stocks enter bearish territory

The broader memory sector is stuck in a deep recession. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has fallen more than 20% from its recent peak, officially entering bear market territory. On July 14, the fund declined 4.54% and closed below closely watched technical levels for the first time since its inception. Stocks across the sector have retreated sharply after a strong first-half rally – SanDisk had climbed 707% year-to-date in early July, Micron was up 243%, and SK Hynix's value on the Korea Exchange had more than tripled.

South Korea takes steps to curb leveraged ETF mania

Adding to the turmoil, South Korea's Financial Services Commission on Thursday announced a temporary ban on new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, according to Reuters. The regulator will raise the minimum cash deposit required for retail investors to trade such products to 30 million won ($20,300) from 10 million won, effective Aug. 5. The 14 existing leveraged ETFs linked to both chip makers had racked up a combined market capitalization of about 14 trillion won within the first month of trading, with retail investors comprising about 92% of holders. Samsung Codex SK Hynix Single Stock Leveraged Fund, the group's largest, has fallen about 45% since its launch in late May.

"These are high-risk products, which initially triggered a sharp selloff in Seoul," Lee, governor of the Financial Supervisory Service, said in earlier comments. FSC Chairman Lee Eong-wen said in a YouTube program this week that the regulator is in close talks with the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Korea to "ensure investor protection and market stability."

TSMC raises 2026 sales growth forecast to above 40% on AI demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co on Thursday raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast by more than 40 percent in US dollar terms and raised capital expenditure guidance to between $60 billion and $64 billion, underscoring the chip maker's confidence in continued demand for artificial intelligence computing.

advanced outlook

Speaking at an investor conference, TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei said the company's customers have a positive business outlook for the year, with AI applications driving strong demand despite uncertainties in the broader consumer electronics market. The revised sales forecast marks the second upgrade this year – TSMC initially forecast growth of “close to 30 percent” in January, raised it to “more than 30 percent” in April, and has now pushed it above 40 percent.

The new capital spending range of $60 billion to $64 billion represents an increase of at least $4 billion from the $52 billion to $56 billion estimated in April. Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said 70 to 80 percent of the spending would go toward advanced process development, with the remainder divided between specialized technologies and high-level assembly and testing.

Record quarter and forward guidance

The upgrade came on the heels of record second quarter results. Revenue rose 36 percent year-on-year to NT$1.27 trillion, while analysts had expected net profit to rise 59 percent to about NT$633 billion. TSMC forecast third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, which would represent 12 percent sequential growth at the midpoint.

Gross margin is expected to decline slightly to 65 to 67 percent in the current quarter due to increased spending on new capacity, from 67.7 percent in the June period.

wider implications

TSMC is the primary manufacturing partner for Nvidia and Apple, putting it at the center of AI infrastructure buildouts by hyperscale cloud providers. Despite the strong outlook, U.S.-listed shares fell about 4 percent in premarket trading on Thursday, as investors took profits on a stock that had already risen nearly 40 percent by now.

The higher spending plan indicates that TSMC expects AI-driven demand to persist beyond this year. "The large-scale future investment is aimed at providing good returns to the company's shareholders," Huang told investors.

Gold slips below $4,000 on fears of oil-based rate hike

Gold prices fell below $4,000 an ounce on Thursday for the first time in weeks as rising US-Iran tensions kept interest rate expectations high as rising US-Iran tensions overshadowed soft inflation data. The decline extended the metal's months-long retreat from record highs in January.

Oil-fueled inflation fears put pressure on precious metals

According to Fortune, the price of gold was $3,992 an ounce at 9:15 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday, $81 less than the previous day. Silver also fell to around $57.80 an ounce, continuing its sharp decline from its all-time high of $121.62 in January.

The selloff in precious metals was mainly driven by rising energy costs. Crude oil prices climbed for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising to $85.28 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rising to $80.02, as renewed military tensions between Washington and Tehran raised fears of a supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported earlier this week that the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, sending oil to a one-month high.

According to Al Jazeera, the Treasury Department's revocation of temporary sanctions waivers on Iranian oil – which is scheduled to take full effect on July 17 – has further tightened supply expectations.

Rate hike expectations hinge on non-yielding assets

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.57% on Thursday, according to Reuters, while the market continued to price in a near 30% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at its July 28-29 meeting. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows nearly 80% expectations for a rate hike by September.

Gold broke below $4,000 for the first time in late June, when Reuters reported it slipped below that threshold for the first time since November 2025. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, warned at the time that a prolonged break above the $4,000 level could trigger "a new wave of capitulation and momentum-driven selling."

A broad retreat from record highs

Spot gold hit an all-time high of $5,594.82 in late January before the recovery began, falling more than $1,500 an ounce amid a hawkish Federal Reserve led by Chairman Kevin Wersh. Since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, precious metals have underperformed broader markets, with gold falling about 24%.

Analysts are divided on the outlook. Deutsche Bank cut its fourth-quarter forecast to $4,800, while Wells Fargo maintained its year-end target at $6,100 to $6,300.

Europe eyes strongest earnings in three years, but AI gap with US widens

European blue-chip companies are headed for their strongest earnings season in more than three years, yet investors remain concerned that it lags the United States by a wide margin due to limited exposure to the artificial intelligence sector.

Second-quarter profits for companies in the STOXX 600 are expected to rise an average of 15.3% — the fastest pace since the final quarter of 2022, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data cited in a Reuters report published on Wednesday. In contrast, US companies are projected to deliver 23.7% earnings growth over the same period.

Energy boom hides underlying weakness

Much of Europe's headline strength reflected a surge in energy profits due to higher crude prices linked to the Iran conflict. Remove the energy sector and the picture changes sharply: LSEG data shows that non-energy companies in the STOXX 600 are projected to report only 6% earnings growth, compared to 19.6% for their S&P 500 counterparts.

"For Europe to really start performing, you need some kind of catalyst, as we saw with the German fiscal stimulus last year, which we haven't seen yet," Natalia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, said, according to Reuters.

AI gap remains a matter of central concern

Europe lacks the concentration of memory chip makers and hyperscalers that have driven U.S. earnings, although some investors see a partial bridge to industrial AI spending. Zitania Kandhari, deputy chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, told Reuters the gap "is likely to narrow over time" as European companies grow.

ASML, the world's largest supplier of chip-making equipment, gave an early signal on Wednesday by raising its 2026 sales forecasts after beating second-quarter expectations. Still, with drugmakers Novartis, SAP, UniCredit and Volkswagen all reporting next week, investors say guidance on demand in 2027 will matter more than backward-looking results.

Extensiveness of upgrades provides some optimism

Separately, Citigroup analysts noted that Europe's income revision index reached its highest level since 2021, with 80% of regions now in net income upgrade territory. Christoph Berger, CIO Equity Europe at Allianz Global Investors, pointed to AI-related infrastructure investment as a tailwind for European industrials and semiconductor companies – even if it is less than the US tech boom.

"Maybe it's not enough to get in line. Maybe it's not even enough to get ahead," said Martin Frandsen, portfolio manager at Principal Asset Management, summarizing the high bar set by investors for AI-linked names.

EU solar fleet saves €20B in gas imports since war started

Europe's solar power fleet has saved the EU €20 billion in gas import costs since the start of the war in the Middle East, according to analysis published by SolarPower Europe on July 15. Savings amounted to an average of €146 million per day over the 137-day period between 1 March and 15 July.

Record savings amid conflict-induced price hike

The findings underline how rapidly expanded solar capacity has served as a financial buffer for Europe during periods of volatile energy markets. The conflict, which began with American and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and caused oil prices to rise 65% in a matter of days, with European gas prices rising nearly 20% on March 2, according to the Bruegel think tank. Even after a ceasefire in April and the announcement of a preliminary US-Iran peace framework in June, energy prices remain above pre-war levels.

SolarPower Europe previously reported that cumulative savings reached €10 billion by May 20 and €12.8 billion by early June, with the pace accelerating as output increased due to summer sunshine.

Solar power becomes EU's largest energy source

The cost savings report comes days after separate analysis by energy think tank Amber found that solar power could become the EU's biggest source of electricity in June 2026, generating a record 52 terawatt-hours and supplying 25% of the bloc's monthly electricity. This was the first time that solar power provided a quarter of the EU's electricity, surpassing nuclear power at 21%, gas at 15%, wind at 14%, hydro at 12% and coal at just 8%.

June is only the third month in which solar energy has taken the top spot, after June 2025 and May 2026. Germany, Spain and Poland are leading the expansion.

a structural change

These milestones reflect broader structural changes to Europe's electricity system. According to Amber's annual review, wind and solar together will overtake fossil fuels for the first time in 2025, supplying 30% of the EU's electricity compared to 29% from coal and gas combined. Coal production fell to a record low that year.

With energy security concerns still fresh and gas prices expected to remain high despite diplomatic progress on Iran, it's hard to argue the economic case for solar power. As data from SolarPower Europe shows, the continent's solar panels are now offsetting not only carbon emissions but also import bills worth billions of euros every month.

BofA's Moynihan joins Wall Street CEOs in warning of Mythos AI risks

According to Bloomberg, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has added his voice to the growing chorus of Wall Street leaders warning about the cybersecurity threats posed by Anthropic's Mythos AI model, telling the audience that the bank is "all working hard on it".

Moynihan's comments, reported Wednesday, come just a day after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called the risks of broader access to Mythos a "real issue," and compared it to "giving ballistic missiles to individuals." Dimon made his remarks at Senator Dave McCormick's Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit.

A powerful model with dangerous capabilities

Anthropic in early April unveiled Cloud Mythos Preview, a frontier AI model that demonstrated what researchers called "surprising" efficiency in identifying and exploiting cybersecurity vulnerabilities in major operating systems and web browsers. The company decided not to release Mythos to the public, instead limiting access to about 40 organizations through an initiative called Project Glasswing, including Amazon Web Services, CrowdStrike, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

Anthropic said the model had already identified high-severity vulnerabilities, some dating back more than two decades, and warned that similar capabilities would inevitably spread to other AI systems.

Wall Street's growing reaction

The financial industry has been on alert since April, when Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held an emergency briefing for bank CEOs about Mythos' potential to fuel cyberattacks against banking infrastructure. The European Central Bank also questioned banks about their preparedness.

Banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are testing Mythos under Project Glasswing to assess its security. Separately, Bank of America is investing heavily in AI capabilities, helping raise about $500 billion for AI-related companies by 2025, according to Reuters.

pervasive stress

Moynihan and Dimon's warnings underscore a central tension facing the banking industry: The same AI tools that are fueling a dealmaking boom and operational efficiencies also pose a threat to the legacy systems underpinning global finance. Lee Klarich, chief technology officer of Palo Alto Networks, warned in May that businesses face a narrow window to strengthen their defenses before AI-driven cyberattacks "become the new standard."

The UK's AI Safety Institute, which independently tested Mythos, concluded that the model could exploit weakly protected systems, but warned that its capabilities could not dramatically exceed those of its predecessor.

India-UK trade deal comes into effect, sparking IP debate

The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement came into force on July 15, 2026, opening a new chapter in bilateral trade - but its intellectual property provisions have divided stakeholders, with pharmaceutical companies welcoming the deal while patient advocacy groups warn it could erode India's role as the "pharmacy of the world".

Drug Manufacturers View Opportunities

Indian pharmaceutical executives have hailed the UK's agreement to eliminate import duties on 56 product categories, saying the move will improve competitiveness and support export growth. Sudarshan Jain, secretary general of the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance, said the industry body "welcomes the India-UK free trade agreement, which eliminates UK tariffs on pharmaceutical products".

The deal, finalized in May 2025 and signed in London on July 24, 2025, provides zero-duty access to about 99 per cent of Indian exports to the UK and is projected to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.

patient groups sound the alarm

Patient advocacy organizations have raised concerns about the IP chapter of the agreement, which spans 52 pages and covers patents, trademarks, copyrights and trade secrets. At the center of the dispute is Article 13.6, which states that "The Parties recognize the better and optimal route to promote and ensure availability of medicines through voluntary mechanisms such as voluntary licensing".

Critics argue that this language functionally sidelines compulsory licensing – the mechanism under India's Patent Act that allows the government to override patents during public health emergencies. Healthcare advocacy group Pallium India warned that the deal could "harm the millions of people who rely on India's generic drugs" by promoting the harmonizing of patent office practices that risks the evergreening of patents.

Knowledge Ecology International notes that the IP Chapter "weakens the policy space to facilitate access to medicines" on two grounds: the apparent preference for voluntary licensing and the weakening of patent function disclosure requirements.

Government defends security measures

Indian officials have stressed that the agreement does not weaken New Delhi's authority to issue compulsory licenses and does not introduce any new preconditions for their use. The Research and Information System for Developing Countries, a government-affiliated think tank, argued that the text "affirms India's full right to use all available flexibilities to implement public health measures, including CL" and preserves India's independence to determine what constitutes a national health emergency.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who signed the agreement and visited the UK in late June 2026 for pre-implementation talks, has described the FTA as "India's most comprehensive agreement ever". During the UK-India Week 2026, Goyal interacted with British industry leaders and executives on trade facilitation and regulatory coordination ahead of the July 15 launch.

The debate reflects a familiar tension in India's trade policy: balancing the ambition to deepen integration with wealthier markets against the protection of legal instruments that have made Indian generics accessible across the developing world.

RBI bars banks from selling seized assets back to defaulters

The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday issued final instructions barring banks and non-banking financial companies from selling repossessed immovable properties to the original defaulting borrowers or any related parties, closing the loophole that had allowed some loan defaulters to repossess seized properties.

New framework for stressed assets

The directions, part of RBI's amended "Prudential Norms on Specified Non-Financial Assets (SNFA) Guidelines, 2026", will come into force on October 1, 2026. Under the framework, a specified non-financial asset refers to any immovable property acquired by the bank in full or partial satisfaction of claims on borrowers whose loans have become non-performing.

As per the instructions, the prohibition on selling the asset to the original borrower or related parties applies even after the asset ceases to be classified as a SNFA. Banks will have to dispose of such assets within a maximum period of seven years through a public auction conducted in accordance with the principles laid down under the SARFAESI Act.

Settlement and Valuation Requirements

RBI said banks do not generally deal in fixed assets as part of their regular business and they should take up such acquisitions only as a last resort after all other recovery options have been exhausted. Under the new norms, SNFA should be recorded on the lower of the net book value of the liquidated credit exposure or the distress sale price determined by at least two independent valuers. The appraisal should be updated at least once every two years, and any increase in value should be ignored.

For assets already held by banks as of September 30, 2026 – so-called “legacy SNFAs” – compliance with the new directive must be achieved by September 30, 2027. Banks will also have to separately disclose SNFA holdings in their balance sheets. Business-

strengthening debt recovery

The instructions require the board of each bank to approve policies specifying limits on SNFA as a share of total assets, eligibility criteria for acquisitions, a delegation matrix for approval and a maximum settlement period of not more than seven years. RBI has also directed banks not to recognize unrealized interest on acquired stressed assets as income.

The framework follows draft guidelines issued on May 5, 2026, which were open for public consultation till May 26. The final instructions are aimed at preventing circular transactions, enhancing transparency and ensuring that the loan recovery process is not undermined by defaulters gaining control over seized collateral.

AI loan boom puts pressure on credit markets as spreads widen

The corporate bond market is turning cautious as the biggest technology companies are ramping up borrowing to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure, spreads among hyperscaler issuers have widened from 10 to 30 basis points in recent days and SpaceX's first 30-year bond is moving toward a 7.5% yield — a level that suggests investors are no longer treating AI-adjacent debt as a scarce asset.

A structural shift in how Big Tech funds AI

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle have collectively shifted from predominantly cash-funded operations to leverage-driven models as their AI capital expenditure budgets outstripped internal free cash flow. The five hyperscalers issued approximately $121 billion in US corporate bonds in 2025, more than four times their 2020-2024 annual average. By mid-2026, hyperscaler and AI-adjacent financing had already reached nearly $165 billion – more than the total for all of 2025.

Morgan Stanley estimates global AI-related debt issuance will more than double to nearly $570 billion in 2026, while the bank estimates hyperscaler capital spending could exceed $1 trillion by 2027. BofA has revised its 2026 hyperscaler debt forecast to $175 billion, following Amazon's record €14.5 billion euro deal in March. U.S. investment-grade corporate bond issuance is on pace to exceed $2 trillion in total, potentially exceeding the record set during the pandemic.

supply problem

The tensions were highlighted in a July 13 market note from Penn Mutual Asset Management. Amazon's unexpected $25 billion bond sale last week alone marks the seventh technology mega-deal of that size in 2026 — more than the total number of comparable offerings completed in the past six years. While the broader investment-grade index rose only two basis points and has historically been capped at 76 basis points, hyperscaler-specific spreads widened materially.

Janus Henderson said in a July 8 analysis that credit markets "remain open but cautious, with premiums being sought from even highly rated technology issuers," a dynamic that could prevent a wider catch-up in credit spreads.

SpaceX's bond as bellwether

SpaceX's $25 billion maiden bond offering, priced on June 24 with tranches maturing between 2031 and 2056, has become a focal point. The longest-term tranche has been falling steadily since issuance, taking its yield to 7.5% – a level equivalent to junk-rated debt. As one analysis put it, "The yield of 7.5% on a newly issued, high-profile security suggests that the market is no longer treating every piece of AI-adjacent debt as a scarce asset".

The concern is not that any single issuer faces repayment risk. Hyperscalers remain highly rated with strong cash generation. The risk, rather, is that repeated waves of issuance deplete the dealer's balance sheet and portfolio duration capacity faster than inflows can replenish them. Higher financing costs could pressure AI capex returns, reduce free cash flow, and weigh on the equity multiples underpinning the broader technology rally.

Reuters poll: 70% of economists expect ECB rate hike in September

The European Central Bank is certain to keep interest rates unchanged at its Governing Council meeting on July 23, but a renewed increase in US-Iran hostilities and rising oil prices have reignited debate over whether another hike could happen sooner than markets expect.

All 74 economists in a Reuters poll conducted July 13-16 expect the ECB to leave its deposit rate at 2.25% next week. Market pricing suggests there is a 93% chance that there will be no change. Yet ING's Carsten Brzeski warned this week that "a surprise increase should not be completely dismissed," noting a return to energy-price volatility following the latest wave of U.S. attacks on Iranian targets.

Oil prices create fresh uncertainty

Oil markets have surged last week after a new round of US military strikes on Iranian facilities and Washington reimposing a naval blockade around Iran. Brent crude rose to near $85 a barrel on Thursday, near a one-month high. The New York Times reported that prices rose 9% on the first day of renewed hostilities, putting Brent about 15% above its pre-war level.

The increase has complicated the cool inflation picture. According to Eurostat, eurozone consumer prices fell 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, well below expectations of 3.0%. Reuters reported in late June that sources inside the bank saw "no rush" to make another move in July, which would have eased pressure on the ECB after a rate hike in June.

September hike picks up pace

A Reuters survey showed that 70% of economists – 52 out of 74 – now expect another rate hike this year, most likely in September, up from about 60% in last month's survey. This is in line with the view expressed by several investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, which have forecast quarter-point hikes in both June and September, which would push deposit rates up to 2.50%.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on July 8 that the renewed Iran conflict made the ECB's July decision "ambiguous", adding that both a hike and a freeze were possible. He had previously warned that even reopening the Strait of Hormuz would not provide immediate relief as "it will take several months for oil supplies to return to normal".

Data dependency remains the mantra

ECB President Christine Lagarde has maintained a data-dependent stance, rejecting the labels of "hawk" or "dove" and insisting on a meeting-by-meeting approach. After the June hike – the first since 2023 – the bank's guidance emphasized flexibility, although Lagarde's tone was described as "a little more hawkish" than MUFG analysts had anticipated.

The central question for markets is whether the second-round effects from the energy shock are spillover to wage and services inflation. Core inflation fell to 2.4% in June, and multiple ECB sources have said a sustained Brent price above $100 a barrel will be the limit for action in July. Since oil is well below that mark, a pause is in store for next week – but the path beyond that still remains controversial.

Space startups raised $7.5B in Q2 as SpaceX IPO attracts new investors

Global investment in space startups hit near record levels in the second quarter of 2026, as excitement over SpaceX's historic initial public offering attracted a wave of new capital to the sector, according to a report released Wednesday by Seraphim Space.

The British investment firm reported that space companies raised about $7.5 billion in 141 venture funding deals in the quarter, slightly less than the record $8 billion deployed in 159 deals in the first quarter of 2026. Over the past twelve months, nearly $23 billion has flowed into space technology companies, up from less than $10 billion a year earlier.

SpaceX's record list validates this field

SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, listing on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX after pricing shares at $135 each and raising approximately $75 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. The listing has piqued investor interest far beyond traditional space-focused funds.

"We have seen a clear increase in investor interest over the past year, which has been supported by the SpaceX IPO, but also reflects broader investor recognition of the commercial maturity of the sector," said Lucas Bishop, investment analyst at Seraphim Space. “We are seeing an increase in inflows from investors with limited or no prior position exposure who are now looking to build positions in this category.”

Capital flows into defence, satellites and orbital computing

Investors are focusing on large funding rounds for proven companies serving defense and national security customers, as well as businesses developing space computing capabilities. Notable Q2 deals include True Anomaly's $600 million raise for space security spacecraft, Hawkeye 360's $416 million signals-intelligence round, and Astranis' $300 million raise for satellite connectivity.

“We are now seeing investors putting more money into larger funding rounds for established space businesses,” said Felix von Schubert, executive partner at NewSpace Capital. “This will mean more capital for companies that have already proven their technology works, that there is clear demand, and now is the time to scale up.”

Investments in satellite companies alone reached $8.1 billion in the first half of 2026, already surpassing the total investment of the entire previous year. Investors will next keep an eye on whether Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin follows through on a reported plan to raise nearly $10 billion, which would be one of the largest private fundraises in the sector's history.